America’s Daily Racing Form offers readers with fantastic insight into a variety of racing topics. A realistic analysis of the racing from Meydan is NOT one of them. In a story published three weeks ago, their writer indicated that the racing at Meydan has favored horses closing from off the pace. In fact, Zenyatta trainer John Shirreffs, in explaining the original rationale for sending his mare, Life Is Sweet for the Dubai World Cup, cited the strong closer’s bias at Meydan – just days after the DRF article first appeared. After complications following a workout in California, Life Is Sweet has since been retired.
Here are the facts.
66 thoroughbred races were contested at Meydan over the nine nights of the 2010 Carnival. Let’s eliminate the 14 turf races and focus on the 52 Tapeta events.
Racing at Meydan was run in two groupings: races held over the first two weekends (January 28, February 4, February 5) and the rest of the Carnival (six nights). Michael Dickinson, Tapeta’s creator and in Dubai overseeing the surface performance throughout the Carnival, opened the Tapeta allowing for some greater speed after the initial two weekends. Races were conducted on the Tapeta over distances of: 1200, 1400, 1600, 1900, 2000, 2200 meters. The slowest two times at each distance were recorded on one of the three specific dates listed above.
Races starting the front stretch (1900, 2000, 2200 meters) accounted for 22 of the 52 races, backstretch starts (1200, 1400, 1600 meters) accounted for the other 30 races. Based on our visual observation of every race of the Carnival, winners have been classified into the following categories:
- FRMA (front-runners who made all or nearly all the running)
- RF (ran forwardly and were within close contact of the leaders)
- MP (ran the majority of the race from mid-pack)
- CL (closed from beyond mid-pack and rallied past most of the other runners)
- FB (far back and closed past all or nearly all the field)
For races of 1,900 meters or more:
- 6 winners were forwardly placed (1 FRMA, 5 RF)
- 7 came from mid pack
- 9 were considered closers or came from far back
For races of 1,600 meters or less:
- 15 winners were forwardly places (2 FRMA, 13 RF)
- 5 came from mid pack
- 10 were considered closers or came from far back (note that only 2 winners in this category succeeded when racing over 1,200 meters, both wins coming on the first two nights of the Carnival).
For the entire Carnival:
- 21 winners were forwardly placed
- 12 came from mid pack
- 19 were closers
An overwhelming bias favoring closers? I think not. The Tapeta at Meydan has played incredibly fair and should offer a fabulous surface to conduct the 2010 Dubai World Cup meeting, the world’s richest day of racing.
One Comment
At the 2010 Dubai Carnival, Lizard’s Desire, Allybar, Gloria De Campeao, Mendip, Musir, and Mr.Brock were the horses that really seemed to thrive the most on the Tapeta surface at Meydan. Red Desire ran a great Al Maktoum Challenge Rd.3, but ran a flat out stinker in the Dubai World Cup. I also thought Godolphin’s Mastery ran a very respectable 5th in the Dubai World Cup. Just nosed out for 4th by Gio Ponti. Mastery came to Dubai off of a long lay-off, and ran a great race. Mastery run’s equally well on turf and synthetic surfaces. I believe the biggest problem he had in the Dubai World Cup was the 10f distance. Too short for him. Mastery has always been at his best at 1-1/2 to 2 miles, no matter which surface he’s racing over. 3rd in the 09′ Breeders Cup Marathon at 1-3/4. 2nd in the 09′ Great Voltigeur Stakes at York over 1-1/2. 3rd in the 09′ Queen’s Vase at Royal-Ascot at 2 miles. Then in 2010, after a longish lay-off from his Dubai World Cup 5th, Mastery returned to run 3rd at Newmarket in the G3 Darley Stakes. A race that the RacingUK announcers even stated favored the winner Tazeez, and 2nd place finisher, Steele Tango, because the race was only 9+ furlongs. Mastery then went to Kempton, where he dead-heated with Dansili Dancer for the win in the listed Floodlit Stakes at 1-1/2 on the all-weather. And most recently, Mastery looked better than he’s ever looked in his career when he blew away an extremely high class field at Sha Tin to win the G1 Hong Kong Vase. I’m pretty certain that Godolphin intend to send Mastery back to Dubai in 2011. But based on his recent performance in Hong Kong. I think Godolphin would benefit much more with Mastery by entering him in the G1 Sheema Classic than racing him again in the G1 Dubai World Cup. TJMO.