1. Ahmed Ajtebi continues his masterful run this season and is my initial pick to land the Meydan Masters – he is just riding this course so darn well.  The win in the Thursday opener was no exception, guiding Antinori from a long last, slaloming through the big field while staying inside, a path that hasn’t always been successful.  He is improving each and every night on the track and the locals absolutely adore his wins.  He stamped himself a presence in 2009 with the Dubai World Cup and Breeders’ Cup meeting wins, his day-in and day-out form has marked him as a top rider.

2. Props to Kuwaiti trainer Rashed Bouresly, who has been known to have his horses so tuned to keep running week to week, earned his first Carnival win when Star Crowned pipped Macau raider Good Control in the second race.  Star Crowned has back class, finishing third in the 2008 Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), a race in which he was overwhelmingly hampered in the running. 

3.  Midshipman looked great winning his seven furlong event over a field with less class than he faced over the mile of the Maktoum Challenge (G3).  Presuming he goes on World Cup night, likely in the Godolphin Mile (G2), Midshipman would be making his all-important third start off the layoff. 

4.  Zirconeum was a disappointment in the Balanchine (G3) but Deem strutted her stuff once again over the Dubai green, timing the win over Aspectoflove to perfection.  The Saudis hold another strong hand here and we could see them with several World Cup night contenders.

5.  I think everyone was surprised that Sabotage took the DRC Gold Cup, even apprentice jockey Mickael Barzalona.  When there are four Saeed bin Suroor entrants, and your name does not end with Dettori, Durcan, or Ajtebi, and you are NOT wearing blue, the public tends to dismiss you, even if your last run over 2,800 meters was encouraging.  I am as guilty as any.  Didn’t see that one coming.

6.  A note of personal handicapping misery here as Lucky Find, a strong selection from us last start when caught by Turkey’s Pan River in the final stages of a turf event, came back to win at a decent price.  Through seven nights of the Carnival, Mike De Kock’s treble brings his total of Carnival wins this season to 11, seven behind Saeed bin Suroor. 

7.  Crowded House, second to Allybar in the Maktoum Challenge R2 (G3), was the recipient of a significant level of support in the UK, causing many betting houses make a dramatic halving of his odds for the Dubai World Cup (G1).  Crowded House is expected to make his third start of a significant layoff in the world’s richest race on March 27.

8.  Jamie Spencer, outgunned on Crowded House in that race, will miss the big Super Thursday meeting as he was suspended for two nights, which includes this Thursday’s penultimate meeting at the 2010 Carnival.  Spencer was charged with careless riding when he caused significant crowding in the sixth race from the February 19th program, taking his mount, Cat Junior, outward while hampering three others.  Spencer is due to return for the Meydan Masters card on March 5.

9.  As mentioned in a previous posting, Jeremy Noseda charge Leahurst is being aimed at the 2010 Dubai Golden Shaheen.  One item that makes Leahurst stick out, despite being a dual winner at the Carnival, is that his win on opening night was 1.4 seconds faster than Raihana’s win over the same trip.  The track was playing notably slower, early in the Carnival, but that win really gleams, especially considering Raihana has come back to win, taking the UAE Oaks after a fourth in the UAE 1000 Guineas.

Get ready for a big week of racing as Super Thursday brings us seven stakes events while the Meydan Masters awaits for Friday.  It should be a grand finale to the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival.

1.  Thursday = parade of favorites
Most often, racing in Dubai is not kind to favorites but Thursday witnessed a steady stream of well-backed winners, led my Mike De Kock’s 3-year-old winner, Musir.  Alexandros took the Al Rashidiya with a strong stretch kick in the first race over the turf course, followed by a perfectly timed Frankie Dettori ride on Age of Reason in the 2,800 meters marathon, giving the Italian the first two turf races at Meydan.  King of Rome franked the form of stablemate Lizard’s Desire when winning the Thursday finale.

2.  Friday = longshots!
So Shiny, a 16-1 winner at the 2009 Carnival, was ignored by the international punters and sent off at 30-1 (14-1 in the UK) when defeating the fast-closing Indian performer, Oasis Star, who seems to have a future regardless of the second place finish.  Barbecue Eddie found his form back on the all-weather, where he had success in America two years back, and ran on incredibly well to score a mild upset.  Snaffy loved the drop in class and a return to the grass winning at 16-1 while Kal Barg swept past all with a wide stretch move in the Friday finale at 30-1 in the international pool.

3.  Tapeta remains even
So Shiny and Barbecue Eddie took their sprint wins on Friday from front-running positions and made all.  Anmar and Kal Barg won route races from well back, the latter coming incredibly wide to do it, even wider that Mister Fasliyev who was strung out turning for home.  From Thursday, Mr. Brock was wide throughout and stayed on incredibly well for a handy score while perfect tripped Tartan Gigha didn’t have enough. 

4.  Dettori makes a rare bad choice
Global City, with Ted Durcan up, landed a sprint event on Thursday carrying the primary Godolphin colors while Frankie Dettori watched from fifth as he sided with the mare, Alo Pura.  Rarely have we seen Frankie make the wrong choice, but that was most definitely the case on this occasion.

5.  Late night pace bias unfounded
After the opening night of the 2010 Carnival ended with three consecutive front-runners making near all the running en route to wins.  That trend was totally discounted over the two nights from this week.

6.  Sir Gerry fails to re-up
One of the biggest angles we saw coming into the 2010 Carnival, when reviewing the 2009 Carnival, was the inability of longshot winners to find their form a second time.  All but two big priced winners at the 2009 Carnival managed to do it again (Gladiatorus and Snaffy) and Sir Gerry, at 49-1 internationally, 25-1 in the UK, could only muster fourth on Friday after being backed in at much shorter odds.

7.  DeKock third stringers overbet, underperform
While trainer Mike DeKock has had another strong start to a Carnival, winning five races and earning four other placings, his stable still has some old plodders who are well-backed but simply don’t class up with the rest of the barn.  Friday’s last race saw Art of War and Rocks Off take attention, most of that going to the former, let go as 5-2 co-favorite with Rockette.  Art of War never picked up the running and finished in mid-pack.  Let the reminder stand – when DeKock runs horses that don’t appear to match the usual caliber of the stable, chances are they don’t perform that way either.  Raceplayers must recognize the better crop with a check of the past performance / form guide and recognize they must play the horse, not the trainer.

8.  Horse to watch from this week
Friday’s Cape Verdi (G3) saw Soneva take a nice win over Aspectoflove.  While Mike De Kock’s Zirconeum seems better over longer ground and found her best stride when late, I was impressed with the fifth place finish of Purple Sage, who galloped out well past the winner well.  Also, Joanna Morgan trainee Fourpenny Lane was slammed in a chain reaction once Aspectoflove shifted for more running room, but still stayed on to finish just off the flank of Zirconeum, but seventh.

9.  LISTEN to the great Dubai Racing Channel broadcast
For those with any access to the simulcast feed from Dubai, which is actually the live coverage provided by the Dubai Racing Channel, LISTEN up.  Trainer Doug Watson absolutely glowed about his horse, Barbecue Eddie, after another of his, Force Freeze, had won.  Watson made it back to back wins and the BBQ man himself was 13-1 in the US and 25-1 in the UK pools.  Their fabulous coverage has also integrated the most useful application of the TrakUS system ever.  Brett Williams, Laura King, Jason Ford, and Fanny Salmon have really added so much to the Carnival coverage this year with their insight, interviews, and presence, done all without commercial interruption.  If you haven’t caught any of the coverage…don’t delay!

Next week brings us just one night of racing, Thursday, featuring the UAE 2000 Guineas and the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3).  Good luck!

DeKock received former Coolmore contenders Frozen Fire, winner of the 2008 Irish Derby (G1) and Golden Sword, 2009 Irish Derby placer, midway through last year with sights set on the 2010 DIRC.  “Frozen Fire is the most forward and likely to race first.” 

Eagle Mountain (pictured below at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup), after time off to recover from an injury that forced him out of the 2009 Dubai festivities, returned with a decent leg-stretcher in top conditions when fifth, beaten almost five lengths in December’s Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup (G1), a race he won in 2008.  De Kock will test the classy horse over Tapeta and might hold an Dubai World Cup entry. 

Honour Devil, winner of the 2008 UAE Derby will be back for more action, as will long time companion Royal Vintage, the 2008 Al Bastakiya winner, who was several beats off at the 2009 Carnival.   

Seven of DeKock’s runners are recent imports from South Africa.  The 3-year-old filly Zirconeum leads the charge for DeKock’s raiders, after a dazzling run when second in the 2009 Vodacom Durban July (G1).  DeKock has earlier reported that he “thinks she might be better than Irridescence,” who herself had won the Balanchine (G3) in 2003 and was an international Group One winner.  Zirconeum was closest to becoming the first filly to win the Durban July since the great Ipi Tombe, winner of the 2003 Dubai Duty Free (G1), landed the spoils.  De Kock reported that she is likely to go the route of Sun Classique, beginning with the Cape Verdi (G3) en route to the Duty Free.

Musir, winner of the Golden Horseshoe (G1), adds more fuel to DeKock’s fire from South Africa, and could go for either the Tapeta races leading on the UAE Triple Crown trail or perhaps stay on the grass.  Other South Africans coming for the Carnival include Mr. Crazy Boy, Wonder Lawn, Our Giant, and Raihana. 

2009 Carnival performers expected to return for a go at Meydan include winners Front House (Dubai City of Gold – G2), Silver Mist (Al Rashidiya – G3), Art of War, Warsaw, and Hunting Tower.  They are joined by past Carnival runners Biarritz, Engruipdo, Frosty Secret, Imbongi, King of Rome (pictured below), Mr. Brock, Rocks Off, and Stubbs Art.

Click HERE for the full list from DeKock’s website.

Impeccably bred, a son of the crack Aussie sire Redoute’s Choice out of the Encosta De Lago mare Dizzy De Lago, Musir is being exported to Dubai, and is likely to be joined by the Durban July second, Zirconeum – so says The National’s Sarah Tregoning. 

Click HERE to read more from Tregoning’s article.

Sheikh Mohammed also owns former Carnival runners including Diana’s Choice, Hunting Tower, Archipenko, Imbongi, amongst many others.

Photo courtesy ThoroughbredNews.co.nz – Big City Life winning the KRA Guineas

Strong favorite Pocket Power, who gave away more than 15 pounds (7 kg) to the winner, raced in the rear early and still ran on to finish a most credible fifth, especially strong given the impost and the heavy course conditions. 

Big City Life, sent postward at odds around 6-1, is trained by Glen Kotzen and was ridden to the win by Greg Cheyne, each notching their first win in the Durban July, a race that has had significance for the Dubai racing scene.  Previous winners include Ipi Tombe (2002), Greys Inn (2004), and Hunting Tower (2007), all of whom have had varying degrees of success in the UAE.  Ipi Tombe landed the 2003 Dubai Duty Free (G1) while Greys Inn took the 2005 Dubai City of Gold (G3).  Hunting Tower was victorious at the 2009 Dubai International Racing Carnival.

50-1 longshot Zirconeum, trained by Mike De Kock, ran a cracking second, with 80-1 pacesetter Forest Path in third and 100-1 rank outsider Thundering Jet fourth, all in front of 16-10 favorite Pocket Power.  All 20 entrants ran.  Click below to view the stretch run of the Vodacom Durban July.

After a win in the prestigious Cape Derby this January, Big City Life was freshened for a campaign that would peak with the Durban July.  Out of the Goldmar mare Dollar Crisis, Big City Life was second in his April return run in the Byerley Turk (G3) then landed the KRA Guineas before a final Durban July prep, taking the Daily News 2000 (G1) at Clairwood on June 6.  Following that race, his longtime rider, Bernard Fayd’Herbe was quoted by SAHRacing.com saying that Big City Life would be a definite threat in the Durban July.  Such confidence was especially striking on that day considering that Fayd’Herbe, who rode Paris Perfect to a third place finish in the 2009 Dubai World Cup (G1), had long been engaged as the rider of Pocket Power.

We will keep our ears to the ground and our eyes to the web in attempting to find the future path for Big City Life.  Champions from South Africa have a way of finding themselves to the International Racing Carnival in the care of Mike De Kock or Herman Brown, both native South Africans. 

Big City Life now owns a lifetime record of seven wins and three placings from 12 lifetime starts.

Trained by Mike Bass, Pocket Power was first past the post in his comeback effort at Clairwood last time out and is the top-rated horse in South Africa.  From 30 career races, the son of Jet Master has 16 wins and 11 placings and finished in a spellbinding deadheat with Dancer’s Daughter in the 2008 Vodacom Durban July.   Bernard Fayd’Herbe has the return ride.

CLICK HERE to watch video from the 2008 Vodacom Durban July (race begins at 10:45 of the video).

A field of 20 are scheduled to go to the starting gate, with the late developing Kapil in with a strong chance.  He ran at Pocket Power in the Gold Challenge (G1) and flew home following that 1600 meters affair.  Piere Strydom, victorious in this race in 1996 and 2001, will be reunited with Kapil.  Fifth in the 2007 Dubai Duty Free (G1), more than six lengths behind Admire Moon, Kapil has had a rocky career that seemed troubled from the start when he suffered a fractured hind pastern. 

Click HERE for more on the remarkable comeback of Kapil from South Africa’s RacingWeb.

Mike De Kock trains three starters in the full field, most of whom are considered to have smaller chances in the race, all of which are southern hemisphere sophomores, racing in their 3-year-old year; Bouquet-Garni and Forest Path are geldings while Zirconeum is a filly, the only one in the race. 

For more information on the great South African race, visit VodacomDurbanJuly.co.za.