1. Ahmed Ajtebi continues his masterful run this season and is my initial pick to land the Meydan Masters – he is just riding this course so darn well.  The win in the Thursday opener was no exception, guiding Antinori from a long last, slaloming through the big field while staying inside, a path that hasn’t always been successful.  He is improving each and every night on the track and the locals absolutely adore his wins.  He stamped himself a presence in 2009 with the Dubai World Cup and Breeders’ Cup meeting wins, his day-in and day-out form has marked him as a top rider.

2. Props to Kuwaiti trainer Rashed Bouresly, who has been known to have his horses so tuned to keep running week to week, earned his first Carnival win when Star Crowned pipped Macau raider Good Control in the second race.  Star Crowned has back class, finishing third in the 2008 Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), a race in which he was overwhelmingly hampered in the running. 

3.  Midshipman looked great winning his seven furlong event over a field with less class than he faced over the mile of the Maktoum Challenge (G3).  Presuming he goes on World Cup night, likely in the Godolphin Mile (G2), Midshipman would be making his all-important third start off the layoff. 

4.  Zirconeum was a disappointment in the Balanchine (G3) but Deem strutted her stuff once again over the Dubai green, timing the win over Aspectoflove to perfection.  The Saudis hold another strong hand here and we could see them with several World Cup night contenders.

5.  I think everyone was surprised that Sabotage took the DRC Gold Cup, even apprentice jockey Mickael Barzalona.  When there are four Saeed bin Suroor entrants, and your name does not end with Dettori, Durcan, or Ajtebi, and you are NOT wearing blue, the public tends to dismiss you, even if your last run over 2,800 meters was encouraging.  I am as guilty as any.  Didn’t see that one coming.

6.  A note of personal handicapping misery here as Lucky Find, a strong selection from us last start when caught by Turkey’s Pan River in the final stages of a turf event, came back to win at a decent price.  Through seven nights of the Carnival, Mike De Kock’s treble brings his total of Carnival wins this season to 11, seven behind Saeed bin Suroor. 

7.  Crowded House, second to Allybar in the Maktoum Challenge R2 (G3), was the recipient of a significant level of support in the UK, causing many betting houses make a dramatic halving of his odds for the Dubai World Cup (G1).  Crowded House is expected to make his third start of a significant layoff in the world’s richest race on March 27.

8.  Jamie Spencer, outgunned on Crowded House in that race, will miss the big Super Thursday meeting as he was suspended for two nights, which includes this Thursday’s penultimate meeting at the 2010 Carnival.  Spencer was charged with careless riding when he caused significant crowding in the sixth race from the February 19th program, taking his mount, Cat Junior, outward while hampering three others.  Spencer is due to return for the Meydan Masters card on March 5.

9.  As mentioned in a previous posting, Jeremy Noseda charge Leahurst is being aimed at the 2010 Dubai Golden Shaheen.  One item that makes Leahurst stick out, despite being a dual winner at the Carnival, is that his win on opening night was 1.4 seconds faster than Raihana’s win over the same trip.  The track was playing notably slower, early in the Carnival, but that win really gleams, especially considering Raihana has come back to win, taking the UAE Oaks after a fourth in the UAE 1000 Guineas.

Get ready for a big week of racing as Super Thursday brings us seven stakes events while the Meydan Masters awaits for Friday.  It should be a grand finale to the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival.

The King’s Cup is contested over 2,400 meters at Riyadh’s King Abdulaziz Racecourse at Janadriah.  Oliver Peslier has the return engagement on Amor De Pobre, while Wigberto Ramos gets a leg up on Kharimes, who was last in the 2009 Dubai World Cup (G1).  Both horses are trained by Jerry Barton, who managed his first Dubai Carnival win of 2010 with So Shiny last Friday.  Sebastian Madrid partners the former winner, Muller, and it appears Christophe Soumillon gets the mount on field event. 

On the undercard, former UAE Derby participant Lelah Dorak attempts to position himself for a return trip to Dubai in the King’s Cup for Saudi bred runners, and it is indeed notable that Ted Durcan will fly to Riyadh for the mount.  Durcan also rides Qiyadiyah for trainer Badr Al Subiah in a different race.  Qiyadiyah was defeated by Waasemah, who ran Thursday in the UAE 1000 Guineas (Listed).

The Saudi contingent that visits Dubai has been better than ever and this seems to have the making of another good renewal for the highlight of the Saudi racing season.

1.  Thursday = parade of favorites
Most often, racing in Dubai is not kind to favorites but Thursday witnessed a steady stream of well-backed winners, led my Mike De Kock’s 3-year-old winner, Musir.  Alexandros took the Al Rashidiya with a strong stretch kick in the first race over the turf course, followed by a perfectly timed Frankie Dettori ride on Age of Reason in the 2,800 meters marathon, giving the Italian the first two turf races at Meydan.  King of Rome franked the form of stablemate Lizard’s Desire when winning the Thursday finale.

2.  Friday = longshots!
So Shiny, a 16-1 winner at the 2009 Carnival, was ignored by the international punters and sent off at 30-1 (14-1 in the UK) when defeating the fast-closing Indian performer, Oasis Star, who seems to have a future regardless of the second place finish.  Barbecue Eddie found his form back on the all-weather, where he had success in America two years back, and ran on incredibly well to score a mild upset.  Snaffy loved the drop in class and a return to the grass winning at 16-1 while Kal Barg swept past all with a wide stretch move in the Friday finale at 30-1 in the international pool.

3.  Tapeta remains even
So Shiny and Barbecue Eddie took their sprint wins on Friday from front-running positions and made all.  Anmar and Kal Barg won route races from well back, the latter coming incredibly wide to do it, even wider that Mister Fasliyev who was strung out turning for home.  From Thursday, Mr. Brock was wide throughout and stayed on incredibly well for a handy score while perfect tripped Tartan Gigha didn’t have enough. 

4.  Dettori makes a rare bad choice
Global City, with Ted Durcan up, landed a sprint event on Thursday carrying the primary Godolphin colors while Frankie Dettori watched from fifth as he sided with the mare, Alo Pura.  Rarely have we seen Frankie make the wrong choice, but that was most definitely the case on this occasion.

5.  Late night pace bias unfounded
After the opening night of the 2010 Carnival ended with three consecutive front-runners making near all the running en route to wins.  That trend was totally discounted over the two nights from this week.

6.  Sir Gerry fails to re-up
One of the biggest angles we saw coming into the 2010 Carnival, when reviewing the 2009 Carnival, was the inability of longshot winners to find their form a second time.  All but two big priced winners at the 2009 Carnival managed to do it again (Gladiatorus and Snaffy) and Sir Gerry, at 49-1 internationally, 25-1 in the UK, could only muster fourth on Friday after being backed in at much shorter odds.

7.  DeKock third stringers overbet, underperform
While trainer Mike DeKock has had another strong start to a Carnival, winning five races and earning four other placings, his stable still has some old plodders who are well-backed but simply don’t class up with the rest of the barn.  Friday’s last race saw Art of War and Rocks Off take attention, most of that going to the former, let go as 5-2 co-favorite with Rockette.  Art of War never picked up the running and finished in mid-pack.  Let the reminder stand – when DeKock runs horses that don’t appear to match the usual caliber of the stable, chances are they don’t perform that way either.  Raceplayers must recognize the better crop with a check of the past performance / form guide and recognize they must play the horse, not the trainer.

8.  Horse to watch from this week
Friday’s Cape Verdi (G3) saw Soneva take a nice win over Aspectoflove.  While Mike De Kock’s Zirconeum seems better over longer ground and found her best stride when late, I was impressed with the fifth place finish of Purple Sage, who galloped out well past the winner well.  Also, Joanna Morgan trainee Fourpenny Lane was slammed in a chain reaction once Aspectoflove shifted for more running room, but still stayed on to finish just off the flank of Zirconeum, but seventh.

9.  LISTEN to the great Dubai Racing Channel broadcast
For those with any access to the simulcast feed from Dubai, which is actually the live coverage provided by the Dubai Racing Channel, LISTEN up.  Trainer Doug Watson absolutely glowed about his horse, Barbecue Eddie, after another of his, Force Freeze, had won.  Watson made it back to back wins and the BBQ man himself was 13-1 in the US and 25-1 in the UK pools.  Their fabulous coverage has also integrated the most useful application of the TrakUS system ever.  Brett Williams, Laura King, Jason Ford, and Fanny Salmon have really added so much to the Carnival coverage this year with their insight, interviews, and presence, done all without commercial interruption.  If you haven’t caught any of the coverage…don’t delay!

Next week brings us just one night of racing, Thursday, featuring the UAE 2000 Guineas and the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3).  Good luck!

11 of the 12 riders have been chosen based upon their wins in top-class races worldwide, with the Dubai Racing Club reserving the right to invite the last rider of their own choosing.  Based upon the list below – it seems almost certain that will belong to Frankie Dettori.  The races used to select riders is likely to change each year considering that the same rider can conceivably win multiple races. 

The contest will be conducted over four races on the card, including the Zabeel Mile (G2).

Run over an extended 13 furlongs, Mourilyan stands one of the better chances amongst the Carnival alums having been second to Schiaparelli in the Goodwood Cup (G2) over two miles and drops in for three furlongs of shorter ground.  Kings Gambit ran a very strong race, his best in months, when third beaten 1 3/4 lengths by Kirklees in the SkyBet York Stakes (G2) over an extended ten furlongs and, the opposite of Mourilyan, stretches out for this trip.  Age of Reason runs second string for Godolphin with Ted Durcan aboard and makes his second start following a layoff.  The son of Halling was eased when second favorite of five in the Fred Archer Stakes (Listed) at Newmarket on June 27.

Also on Saturday at Newbury, the improving Balthazaar’s Gift will be one of the main players in the CGA Hungerford Stakes (G2) over seven furlongs.  The son of Xaar won a handicap at Nad Al Sheba in February and has been placed three times since then after a lowly dirt try in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1).  Godolphin’s newest purchase, Evasive, is a likely top choice in the race.

Under Ted Durcan, Valedictum settled towards the rear and flashed home up the inside rail, improving quite a bit following a sixth place finish two weeks ago.  This 9-year-old is being pointed to back-up for one of the stakes races next week, most likely the Zabeel Mile (G3) on the turf.  In the international commingled pool, Valedictum was let go at 14-1.  The win does assist the form of SUMMIT SURGE who runs in the feature of the Thursday card, the Al Fahidi Fort (G2).

As it stands now, here are the jockey changes for the night, or click HERE for the full list from Emirates Racing.

Race 1 – #1 FATEH FIELD is Ted Durcan

Race 2 – #2 IRISH MAYHEM is Richard Mullen

Race 6 – #3 KIRKLEES is Ted Durcan, #5 FAMILIAR TERRITORY is Daragh O’Donohue

Race 7 – #7 RIVER TIBER is Mick Kinane