#1.  BOLD SILVANO (Rated 120)
After a sparkling win last Thursday’s Maktoum Challenge – R2 (G3), he flies to the top of the list for trainer Mike De Kock, who might have his most confident starter going into the world’s richest race, one that has eluded the South African with so much success in the UAE. This performance, analyzed below by Dubai Racing Channel hosts Brett Williams and Jason Ford, is quite possibly one of the most impressive in the history of the Carnival at Meydan. The favorite for now.

#2.  GIO PONTI (Rated 125)
A future hall of famer in America, this colt goes over anything and had fabulous fourth in the race last year.  He didn’t travel well last year but came on as the week went along and was the best finisher of any shipper in the big race.  The connections have kept him in training with this race in mind and he is back on the worktab after a two-month freshening following a second behind Goldikova in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). He is likely to prep over grass at Gulfstream or Tampa Bay Downs in a tactic similar to last year and is guaranteed a spot in the gate if he goes.

#3.  BUENA VISTA (Rated 118)
The pride of Japan, this mare has been pointed to this spot since November when suffering a controversial disqualification in the Japan Cup (G1).  The distance is no problem, but the surface is a question.  Still, she was second in the 2010 Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) and you know she can handle the ship.

#4.  AL SHEMALI (Rated 119)
Returned from a May layoff with a decent fourth behind Bold Silvano and should progress from there.  I don’t think his connections are interested in winning the Dubai Duty Free (G1) again after landing that race as a monster longshot last year, but is a progressive type who goes over every surface.  Also a guaranteed starter if they choose this spot.

#5.  SNOW FAIRY (Rated 119)
Winner of the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup (G1) in a most impressive fashion, she has been mentioned as an on-again, off-again Dubai World Cup contender, but jockey Ryan Moore has the utmost confidence in her abilities. Trainer Ed Dunlap is confident she will get over the Tapeta having a synthetic win early in her career, and with two late season wins in Asia, shipping seems no issue. The first female winner of the Dubai World Cup? Off last season’s performances, a live chance.

#6.  GIANT OAK (no rating)
Won Saturday’s Donn Handicap (G1) at Gulfstream Park in his first start since being promoted to the win in the Clark Handicap (G1) at Churchill in November.  The Donn has been a major Dubai World Cup stepping stone in the past, and this son of Giant’s Causeway has all-weather experience in his past.  He is full-bodied and could be rounding into form at the right time in his career.  Whether or not trainer Chris Block decides to send his 5-year-old entire is a question, but the Dubai Racing Club would guarantee him a spot off that win.

#7.  MENDIP (Rated 117)
Third in the 2010 UAE Derby (G2), he returned to the races with a stellar performance in the Maktoum Challenge – R1 (G3).  The third place finisher in that event, Win For Sure, a roughie, came back to win on the turf going seven furlongs.  If healthy, he will line up without much question, and is one of only two non-G1 winners in our top 14.

#8.  GITANO HERNANDO (Rated 118)
A bit difficult to believe that Gitano Hernando, the winner of just one Group 1 contest is rated on level with Buena Vista, but that is the case.  He needed a run in the Maktoum Challenge last week and with that, suffered from serious ground loss coming around the bend.  With a campaign in Dubai, intended to get to the big race, he is a significant challenger this year as opposed to last.

#9.  VICTOIRE PISA (no rating)
Winner of the Arima Kinen (G1) in Japan over Buena Vista, he ran forwardly and took off before his female counterpart, barely outlasting the hard charging mare.  A new 4-year-old, he was the winner of the Japanese 2,000 Guineas and is all but guaranteed a spot in the gate.    

#10.  TWICE OVER (Rated 123)
Last year’s Dubai World Cup tenth, he was beaten just three lengths without a prep race.  If he is to be a serious contender, a local leg-stretcher is probably necessary for this Henry Cecil charge.  Cecil noted his desire to win the race, so waiting to see if he gets a go in the third round of the Maktoum Challenge on Super Thursday (3 March) will be a telling sign if he is primed.

#11.  TWIRLING CANDY (no rating)
Trainer John Sadler called this colt the best in America after winning Saturday’s Strub Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita, a race that lacked the quality of the Donn, but if he had run at Gulfstream, could have turned the tables on those runners too.  In his first win on an all-weather over a route of ground, the son of Candy Ride pushed his career mark to six wins from seven starts.  Sadler isn’t known for shipping his horses to tough spots, often choosing to remain firmly rooted in his California base.  It might be tough to keep his colt back in the barn, though.  A start in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) is possible as well, but is another who couldn’t be denied a spot in the gate.  Twirling Candy started his career with two very impressive performances over an all-weather surface.

#12.  CAPE BLANCO (Rated 119)
A rare Ballydoyle nomination could add intrigue to this event as the 2010 Irish Derby (G1) champion has not made a start since a lacklustre Arc effort.  His 5-length win in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) was heartily franked by Twice Over who came back to win the English edition while Rip Van Winkle just missed in the QE II Stakes.  More so, former stable companion Beethoven is now two-for-two in Qatar.  He has yet to touch an all-weather surface when the money was on the line.

#13.  MUSIR (Rated 117)
Unraced since the UAE Derby (G2) win from 2010, he loves the Tapeta but did nothing in training in Australia and the barn has been relatively quiet about him.  Would need a flashy return to be a consideration for Mike De Kock, especially knowing he has the top horse in Bold Silvano for the same ownership.  The past talent cannot be ignored even if we have yet to see him back.

#14.  MORNING LINE (no rating)
Winner of the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), the son of Tiznow was recently purchased by Zabeel Racing International with the intent on being a Dubai World Cup runner. He landed in a hot pace in Saturday’s Donn Handicap (G1) at Gulfstream Park and hung valiently for second. This colt does not give in easily and will be a threatening menace third off the layoff if he goes in the big race.  A winner over 1,800 metres, many think he is most effective over some shorter distances but the pedigree is strong enough to get the 2,000.  The second of our non-G1 winners to sneak into the field.

POTENTIAL RESERVES

#15.  INTERACTION (Rated 112)
Expect his all-weather rating to increase after showing decent foot in the Maktoum Challenge – R2, and is a multiple Group 1 winner in Argentina.  Now for French connections and 2010 Dubai World Cup winning trainer Pascal Bary, he sits on the sideline as of this printing but a second-up start in the third round of the Maktoum Challenge could advance his chances of making the field.

#16  A decent horse that wins the King’s Cup in Saudi Arabia (no rating)
The Saudis have had some decent runners in this event, Premium Tap earning them a second in 2007 behind Invasor.  The King’s Cup is fast approaching and if a quality winner emerges, unlike last year’s ridiculous longshot Wind Flow, you would expect to see that horse get a shot for the big money. 

#17.  SPRING OF FAME (Rated 112)
Won a slow handicap early in the Carnival and came back with a decent second to Bold Silvano.  He has had two starts off the layoff and might get a third or train up hoping to catch one of the last spots in the field. 

#18.  WIN FOR SURE (Rated 113)
Third in the Maktoum Challenge – R1 and a recent winner at Meydan over turf.  Needs help but was progressive when running into Mendip’s pace and holds a longshot chance for a local berth.  A group-placed runner in Germany against decent competition.

#19.  RICHARD’S KID (Rated 119)
Has been in Dubai without a peep from the camp all winter.  When Zabeel purchased Morning Line, it gave us the impression things were not going well with Richard’s Kid.  Still, off his Pacific Classic wins and a loss of only 2.25 lengths in last year’s race, if healthy, he’s in.  But until we hear a squawk from the camp, he’s outside for now. 

#20.  CROWDED HOUSE (Rated 115)
Winless since the 2008 Racing Post Trophy (G1) as a juvenile, he was seventh in the Maktoum Challenge – R2 last week, and was ninth in last year’s Dubai World Cup.  He made ten starts last season and likely needed the leg-stretcher but still has to show he can compete against the top class.  His best performance was a second to Richard’s Kid in the 2010 Pacific Classic (G1).

#21. FLY DOWN (no rating)
Owned by King Abdullah and Sons of Saudi Arabia, his best performance was a third behind Blame and Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).  Managed fifth in the Donn Handicap this weekend and his biggest issue is a lack of placement in the top spots, which might make it hard to get a spot in the field.

#22. REDDING COLLIERY (no rating)
After success in America with Kiaran McLaughlin, this colt could be back in Dubai after growing as a 3-year-0ld against Regal Ransom and Desert Party.  He has reportedly been sent to the UAE for a possible start to prep for the Dubai World Cup, but lacks a Group One win, holding the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) win over the aforementioned Giant Oak as his top success.

#23.  XIN XU LIN (no rating)
Winner of South America’s top race, the Carlos Pelligrini (G1), this former Brazilian colt has been purchased by Godolphin and is now with Mahmood Al Zarooni, with possible considerations for the turf or Tapeta races on Dubai World Cup night.  Has to step up and win something on Super Thursday to get a spot in the field.

#24.  AGGIE ENGINEER (no rating)
Progressing well in California but hasn’t hit Twirling Candy.  He would absolutely need a Santa Anita Handicap (G1) win to gain a spot and bump someone from our top 14.

#25. FIRST DUDE (no rating)
Awful ride in the Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park hurt his chances but is winless since a maiden victory despite earnings of nearly $1 million.  Plugs along and gets beat, he doesn’t seem likely to make the trip. 

#26.  MR BROCK (Rated 115)
Got the final spot in the field last year and ran like it.  His 2011 performances have been a cut below what he did locally in 2010.

#27.  DAKOTA PHONE (no rating)
The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner has been listless since that shock effort.  If he goes in a race at Meydan, it should be the Godolphin Mile (G2).

THE GOOD:
- How about DANDY BOY (pictured below)?  He just did it with ease and surprised his connections who, although with great confidence in their colt, are planning bigger and better.  This was a grand local debut for Malih Al Basti and David Marnane who couldn’t be happier.

Photo courtesy – EERC photographer Cedric Lane

- Mike De Kock.  Two wins and three seconds, with one of those wins coming from a filly he arguably admitted he didn’t know much about.  REEM’s win in the UAE 1000 Guineas was done all on the front end, and there definitely seems some room to grow.  That being said, MAHBOOBA looks happy to be back on course and should come on for it.

- INXILE’s performance in the sixth race, won by OUR GIANT, was a monster run, considering he set out all the running with a relatively fast pace, then hung on to be a close second at a big price. 

- Ireland’s top form wasn’t limited to Dandy Boy as HUJAYLEA topped up second behind his countrymate.  The 8-year-old ran one of the best races of his life and closed from 16th with 400 meters to run to finish second, also overcoming that wide draw.

THE BAD:
- Still trying to figure out why MENDIP wasn’t wearing Godolphin’s blue when their silks were carried by the fourth, seventh, and fourteenth place finishers.  That being said, his performance was a highlight of the night.

- While we recognize the difficulty in setting an opening line for the Dubai races, a big one slipped through the cracks today.  ROCK N ROLL RANSOM was 30-1 on the line and sent off (in the international commingled tote) as the 2-1 favorite.  It happens, it wasn’t the first time and won’t be the last, but those who have access to those lines should be careful to observe some of the longer shots and how they might truly match-up.  Other than that, the lines were spot on for the winners.  The live board always tells you the true sentiments.

THE UGLY:
- Our picks were atrocious.  Il Grande Maurizio never lifted a hoof in the third.  Wonder Lawn was hopelessly last at the top of the stretch after a dawdling pace and rallied well, but only to be fourth.  Happy Valley was in a ridiculous speed duel going 2,400 meters and was never going to last as such.  Force Freeze missed the break, and all chance to run his typical race.  Mr. Brock ran forwardly but didn’t kick on first up as he did last year.  Le Drakkar ran evenly.  What to say…we’ll get ‘em next time.

NEXT WEEK:
Plenty more to look forward to in as the Carnival rolls on!

Purple Moon, the Luca Cumani-trainee who managed a narrow third in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) from 2009, goes in Thursday’s Ascot Gold Cup (G1) over 2.5 miles.  Godolphin’s Black Snowflake, a two-time Carnival starter this season with a fourth and fifth to his ledger in 3-year-old races, is one of 32 starters in the Britannia Stakes over a mile.

Friday has a host of horses familiar to Dubai racing followers.  The 16-strong Wolverton Handicap (Listed) over ten furlongs has seven starters who have been seen in the Emirates, including Meydan winners Halicarnassus and Antinori, and former star Traffic Guard.  Beauchamp Xerxes, Tartan Gigha, Kings Gambit, and Fiery Lad have all had decent goes in Dubai, with Tartan Gigha placing behind the strong Mr. Brock in a Meydan handicap this year.

A full field of 32 are expected for the Buckingham Palace Stakes at seven furlongs to cap the Friday card, with Al Khaleej, third behind Green Coast in February, and Swift Gift, second behind Al Arab on the second night of the 2010 Carnival, are part of the bulky field, and both stand chances.

Saturday, the Golden Jubilee (G1) stands to be the top sprint race of the year thus far with 27 horses holding entries.  Dubai winners Kinsale King, Joy And Fun, Sir Gerry, and Balthazaar’s Gift are amongst the grand lot, awaiting the final declarations and barrier draw later today.

Dubai World Cup
Lizard’s Desire – Kevin Shea
Mr. Brock  – Ryan Moore

Dubai Duty Free
Imbongi – Christophe Soumillon

Dubai Sheema Classic
Golden Sword – Christophe Soumillon

UAE Derby
Musir – Christophe Soumillon
Raihana – Kevin Shea
Mr. Crazy Boy – Corey Brown

Godolphin Mile
Lucky Find – Kevin Shea

Al Quoz Sprint
Our Giant – Kevin Shea

1.  Thursday = parade of favorites
Most often, racing in Dubai is not kind to favorites but Thursday witnessed a steady stream of well-backed winners, led my Mike De Kock’s 3-year-old winner, Musir.  Alexandros took the Al Rashidiya with a strong stretch kick in the first race over the turf course, followed by a perfectly timed Frankie Dettori ride on Age of Reason in the 2,800 meters marathon, giving the Italian the first two turf races at Meydan.  King of Rome franked the form of stablemate Lizard’s Desire when winning the Thursday finale.

2.  Friday = longshots!
So Shiny, a 16-1 winner at the 2009 Carnival, was ignored by the international punters and sent off at 30-1 (14-1 in the UK) when defeating the fast-closing Indian performer, Oasis Star, who seems to have a future regardless of the second place finish.  Barbecue Eddie found his form back on the all-weather, where he had success in America two years back, and ran on incredibly well to score a mild upset.  Snaffy loved the drop in class and a return to the grass winning at 16-1 while Kal Barg swept past all with a wide stretch move in the Friday finale at 30-1 in the international pool.

3.  Tapeta remains even
So Shiny and Barbecue Eddie took their sprint wins on Friday from front-running positions and made all.  Anmar and Kal Barg won route races from well back, the latter coming incredibly wide to do it, even wider that Mister Fasliyev who was strung out turning for home.  From Thursday, Mr. Brock was wide throughout and stayed on incredibly well for a handy score while perfect tripped Tartan Gigha didn’t have enough. 

4.  Dettori makes a rare bad choice
Global City, with Ted Durcan up, landed a sprint event on Thursday carrying the primary Godolphin colors while Frankie Dettori watched from fifth as he sided with the mare, Alo Pura.  Rarely have we seen Frankie make the wrong choice, but that was most definitely the case on this occasion.

5.  Late night pace bias unfounded
After the opening night of the 2010 Carnival ended with three consecutive front-runners making near all the running en route to wins.  That trend was totally discounted over the two nights from this week.

6.  Sir Gerry fails to re-up
One of the biggest angles we saw coming into the 2010 Carnival, when reviewing the 2009 Carnival, was the inability of longshot winners to find their form a second time.  All but two big priced winners at the 2009 Carnival managed to do it again (Gladiatorus and Snaffy) and Sir Gerry, at 49-1 internationally, 25-1 in the UK, could only muster fourth on Friday after being backed in at much shorter odds.

7.  DeKock third stringers overbet, underperform
While trainer Mike DeKock has had another strong start to a Carnival, winning five races and earning four other placings, his stable still has some old plodders who are well-backed but simply don’t class up with the rest of the barn.  Friday’s last race saw Art of War and Rocks Off take attention, most of that going to the former, let go as 5-2 co-favorite with Rockette.  Art of War never picked up the running and finished in mid-pack.  Let the reminder stand – when DeKock runs horses that don’t appear to match the usual caliber of the stable, chances are they don’t perform that way either.  Raceplayers must recognize the better crop with a check of the past performance / form guide and recognize they must play the horse, not the trainer.

8.  Horse to watch from this week
Friday’s Cape Verdi (G3) saw Soneva take a nice win over Aspectoflove.  While Mike De Kock’s Zirconeum seems better over longer ground and found her best stride when late, I was impressed with the fifth place finish of Purple Sage, who galloped out well past the winner well.  Also, Joanna Morgan trainee Fourpenny Lane was slammed in a chain reaction once Aspectoflove shifted for more running room, but still stayed on to finish just off the flank of Zirconeum, but seventh.

9.  LISTEN to the great Dubai Racing Channel broadcast
For those with any access to the simulcast feed from Dubai, which is actually the live coverage provided by the Dubai Racing Channel, LISTEN up.  Trainer Doug Watson absolutely glowed about his horse, Barbecue Eddie, after another of his, Force Freeze, had won.  Watson made it back to back wins and the BBQ man himself was 13-1 in the US and 25-1 in the UK pools.  Their fabulous coverage has also integrated the most useful application of the TrakUS system ever.  Brett Williams, Laura King, Jason Ford, and Fanny Salmon have really added so much to the Carnival coverage this year with their insight, interviews, and presence, done all without commercial interruption.  If you haven’t caught any of the coverage…don’t delay!

Next week brings us just one night of racing, Thursday, featuring the UAE 2000 Guineas and the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3).  Good luck!

DeKock received former Coolmore contenders Frozen Fire, winner of the 2008 Irish Derby (G1) and Golden Sword, 2009 Irish Derby placer, midway through last year with sights set on the 2010 DIRC.  “Frozen Fire is the most forward and likely to race first.” 

Eagle Mountain (pictured below at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup), after time off to recover from an injury that forced him out of the 2009 Dubai festivities, returned with a decent leg-stretcher in top conditions when fifth, beaten almost five lengths in December’s Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup (G1), a race he won in 2008.  De Kock will test the classy horse over Tapeta and might hold an Dubai World Cup entry. 

Honour Devil, winner of the 2008 UAE Derby will be back for more action, as will long time companion Royal Vintage, the 2008 Al Bastakiya winner, who was several beats off at the 2009 Carnival.   

Seven of DeKock’s runners are recent imports from South Africa.  The 3-year-old filly Zirconeum leads the charge for DeKock’s raiders, after a dazzling run when second in the 2009 Vodacom Durban July (G1).  DeKock has earlier reported that he “thinks she might be better than Irridescence,” who herself had won the Balanchine (G3) in 2003 and was an international Group One winner.  Zirconeum was closest to becoming the first filly to win the Durban July since the great Ipi Tombe, winner of the 2003 Dubai Duty Free (G1), landed the spoils.  De Kock reported that she is likely to go the route of Sun Classique, beginning with the Cape Verdi (G3) en route to the Duty Free.

Musir, winner of the Golden Horseshoe (G1), adds more fuel to DeKock’s fire from South Africa, and could go for either the Tapeta races leading on the UAE Triple Crown trail or perhaps stay on the grass.  Other South Africans coming for the Carnival include Mr. Crazy Boy, Wonder Lawn, Our Giant, and Raihana. 

2009 Carnival performers expected to return for a go at Meydan include winners Front House (Dubai City of Gold – G2), Silver Mist (Al Rashidiya – G3), Art of War, Warsaw, and Hunting Tower.  They are joined by past Carnival runners Biarritz, Engruipdo, Frosty Secret, Imbongi, King of Rome (pictured below), Mr. Brock, Rocks Off, and Stubbs Art.

Click HERE for the full list from DeKock’s website.