1.  Thursday = parade of favorites
Most often, racing in Dubai is not kind to favorites but Thursday witnessed a steady stream of well-backed winners, led my Mike De Kock’s 3-year-old winner, Musir.  Alexandros took the Al Rashidiya with a strong stretch kick in the first race over the turf course, followed by a perfectly timed Frankie Dettori ride on Age of Reason in the 2,800 meters marathon, giving the Italian the first two turf races at Meydan.  King of Rome franked the form of stablemate Lizard’s Desire when winning the Thursday finale.

2.  Friday = longshots!
So Shiny, a 16-1 winner at the 2009 Carnival, was ignored by the international punters and sent off at 30-1 (14-1 in the UK) when defeating the fast-closing Indian performer, Oasis Star, who seems to have a future regardless of the second place finish.  Barbecue Eddie found his form back on the all-weather, where he had success in America two years back, and ran on incredibly well to score a mild upset.  Snaffy loved the drop in class and a return to the grass winning at 16-1 while Kal Barg swept past all with a wide stretch move in the Friday finale at 30-1 in the international pool.

3.  Tapeta remains even
So Shiny and Barbecue Eddie took their sprint wins on Friday from front-running positions and made all.  Anmar and Kal Barg won route races from well back, the latter coming incredibly wide to do it, even wider that Mister Fasliyev who was strung out turning for home.  From Thursday, Mr. Brock was wide throughout and stayed on incredibly well for a handy score while perfect tripped Tartan Gigha didn’t have enough. 

4.  Dettori makes a rare bad choice
Global City, with Ted Durcan up, landed a sprint event on Thursday carrying the primary Godolphin colors while Frankie Dettori watched from fifth as he sided with the mare, Alo Pura.  Rarely have we seen Frankie make the wrong choice, but that was most definitely the case on this occasion.

5.  Late night pace bias unfounded
After the opening night of the 2010 Carnival ended with three consecutive front-runners making near all the running en route to wins.  That trend was totally discounted over the two nights from this week.

6.  Sir Gerry fails to re-up
One of the biggest angles we saw coming into the 2010 Carnival, when reviewing the 2009 Carnival, was the inability of longshot winners to find their form a second time.  All but two big priced winners at the 2009 Carnival managed to do it again (Gladiatorus and Snaffy) and Sir Gerry, at 49-1 internationally, 25-1 in the UK, could only muster fourth on Friday after being backed in at much shorter odds.

7.  DeKock third stringers overbet, underperform
While trainer Mike DeKock has had another strong start to a Carnival, winning five races and earning four other placings, his stable still has some old plodders who are well-backed but simply don’t class up with the rest of the barn.  Friday’s last race saw Art of War and Rocks Off take attention, most of that going to the former, let go as 5-2 co-favorite with Rockette.  Art of War never picked up the running and finished in mid-pack.  Let the reminder stand – when DeKock runs horses that don’t appear to match the usual caliber of the stable, chances are they don’t perform that way either.  Raceplayers must recognize the better crop with a check of the past performance / form guide and recognize they must play the horse, not the trainer.

8.  Horse to watch from this week
Friday’s Cape Verdi (G3) saw Soneva take a nice win over Aspectoflove.  While Mike De Kock’s Zirconeum seems better over longer ground and found her best stride when late, I was impressed with the fifth place finish of Purple Sage, who galloped out well past the winner well.  Also, Joanna Morgan trainee Fourpenny Lane was slammed in a chain reaction once Aspectoflove shifted for more running room, but still stayed on to finish just off the flank of Zirconeum, but seventh.

9.  LISTEN to the great Dubai Racing Channel broadcast
For those with any access to the simulcast feed from Dubai, which is actually the live coverage provided by the Dubai Racing Channel, LISTEN up.  Trainer Doug Watson absolutely glowed about his horse, Barbecue Eddie, after another of his, Force Freeze, had won.  Watson made it back to back wins and the BBQ man himself was 13-1 in the US and 25-1 in the UK pools.  Their fabulous coverage has also integrated the most useful application of the TrakUS system ever.  Brett Williams, Laura King, Jason Ford, and Fanny Salmon have really added so much to the Carnival coverage this year with their insight, interviews, and presence, done all without commercial interruption.  If you haven’t caught any of the coverage…don’t delay!

Next week brings us just one night of racing, Thursday, featuring the UAE 2000 Guineas and the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3).  Good luck!

The win at Lingfield, over 2000 meters, was over older rivals and he defeated Carnival alum Bound By Honour in a strong effort for a young horse.  Jockey Ted Durcan sported the royal Godolphin blue on that day and was wide throughout the event, especially on the corner for home.  Bound By Honour franked the form when he won back in another class two handicap at Lingfield, 14 days after his defeat to Black Eagle.   This is a fast improving colt who races locally for Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.  Whether or not he takes to the natural dirt at Jebel Ali, I suspect we’ll be hearing more from Black Eagle.   

Carnival winner #3 Dynamic Saint is amongst the field on Friday, making his second start of the season for Doug Watson.  The son of Sweetsouthernsaint pulled off one of the more incredible efforts of the 2009 Carnival when appearing hopelessly beaten turning for home, fading in mid-pack.  Yet, jockey Ryan Moore picked up the rains and Dynamic Saint kicked on in an incredible reversal.  He comes on for the run and should run with better precision than he did when fifth at Jebel Ali on 20 November. 

Trainer Mubarak bin Shafya sends his third starter of the season in #1 Muy Ponderado, a South American native who failed to do much running in two spring starts.  Both Gladiatorus and Eastern Anthem provided bin Shafya with back-to-back $5 million race wins on Dubai World Cup night. 

Friday’s fifth race at Jebel Ali, a handicap over 1,600 meters, offers a handful of Carnival familiars, including Roman’s Run, a winner over 1,700 meters on 6 February and Kal Barg, second to Alexandros (who was later third in the Dubai Duty Free – G1), on 22 January.  Naseehah, another Godolphin runner now sporting the colors of Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, part of a four horse entry, is a 3-year-old colt with a win and a second from two lifetime starts.  He looks to improve off a rating of 88 for bin Huzaim in yet another well-matched field.

Click HERE for Friday’s advance form guide.

The racing at Jebel Ali is getting more competitive as we get closer to the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival and the racing unveiling of Meydan.  Don’t forget to register to receive the DubaiRaceNight.com Newsletter by entering your name and e-mail address in the box in the right toolbar.  You will have first access to the exclusive “Dubai Racing Comprehensive” when it is released in January.