Photo courtesy: Emirates Racing Association

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2.  Could the Carnival get any better for Doug Watson?  Surely, it could, but Watson has to be immensely pleased with the performance of his barn over these last two nights after scoring back-to-back wins previously with FORCE FREEZE and BARBECUE EDDIE.  Watson landed four winners over the weekend, including both Arabian events with Nirwan on Thursday and Quaolina on Friday.  GREEN COAST, who almost always shows up and runs a great race managed the first thoroughbred event Friday and ROMAN’S RUN pulled an absolute shocker in the finale.  On the international commingled tote, Roman’s Run was an overwhelming 80-1.  After the win, Watson said that Roman’s Run has an awful bleeding habit, but he runs a good one if he keeps in and he sure did in the last of the night.

3.  SKYSURFERS drew into Friday’s brutally difficult sixth race, a basic allowance with a quality field, and drew away in grand style for this once raced son of E Dubai.  With a win over the classy EAGLE MOUNTAIN, Skysurfers is likely to see a massive rise in the ratings and would make sense for a start in the Burj Nahaar (G3) on Super Thursday.  To make this event more impressive, Skysurfers clocked the fastest 1,600 meters of the Carnival, which was even better than CALMING INFLUENCE’s 6.25 length win on Thursday.  In just his second lifetime start, I have to think that Skysurfers stands to improve with time and age, giving Godolphin a massive prospect.

4.  Should this be considered an oddity or a trend?  In the six races at the Carnival over 1,600 meters on Tapeta, five of the six have been won by horses breaking from stalls 11 and wider.  Only AL ARAB, who broke from post two on February 4, survived an inside draw. 

5.  MUSIR ran a grand race winning the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) over FROZEN POWER and a fast closing DELLA BARBA, who galloped out well past the winner.  Concerns that Musir would not get the 1,900 meters of the UAE Derby (G2) seem forgotten at this point. 

6.  How about Ahmed Ajtebi?  This guy is riding with ice in his veins, and there is no better example than the Maktoum Challenge (G3) win on Thursday aboard ALLYBAR.  While Ajtebi had little success in his six week prep in America this winter, he has shown remarkable patience and acument over the Tapeta.  Allybar, after going relatively close in the trial race when winning over PRESVIS, was shuffled back to last leaving the backstretch on Thursday.  I thought something was amiss or at least that Allybar was tired, but instead, Ajtebi sensed the field was quickening a bit early.  He waited to the perfect moment and then got a better jump on CROWDED HOUSE, briefly boxing the favorite, and had enough to hold off a late charge.  Ajtebi is now tied for second in the jockey standings during the Carnival.

Feel free to add your thoughts and comments below.  Racing continues in Dubai next Thursday with the UAE Oaks, Balanchine, and DRC Gold Cup leading the charge.

1.  Thursday = parade of favorites
Most often, racing in Dubai is not kind to favorites but Thursday witnessed a steady stream of well-backed winners, led my Mike De Kock’s 3-year-old winner, Musir.  Alexandros took the Al Rashidiya with a strong stretch kick in the first race over the turf course, followed by a perfectly timed Frankie Dettori ride on Age of Reason in the 2,800 meters marathon, giving the Italian the first two turf races at Meydan.  King of Rome franked the form of stablemate Lizard’s Desire when winning the Thursday finale.

2.  Friday = longshots!
So Shiny, a 16-1 winner at the 2009 Carnival, was ignored by the international punters and sent off at 30-1 (14-1 in the UK) when defeating the fast-closing Indian performer, Oasis Star, who seems to have a future regardless of the second place finish.  Barbecue Eddie found his form back on the all-weather, where he had success in America two years back, and ran on incredibly well to score a mild upset.  Snaffy loved the drop in class and a return to the grass winning at 16-1 while Kal Barg swept past all with a wide stretch move in the Friday finale at 30-1 in the international pool.

3.  Tapeta remains even
So Shiny and Barbecue Eddie took their sprint wins on Friday from front-running positions and made all.  Anmar and Kal Barg won route races from well back, the latter coming incredibly wide to do it, even wider that Mister Fasliyev who was strung out turning for home.  From Thursday, Mr. Brock was wide throughout and stayed on incredibly well for a handy score while perfect tripped Tartan Gigha didn’t have enough. 

4.  Dettori makes a rare bad choice
Global City, with Ted Durcan up, landed a sprint event on Thursday carrying the primary Godolphin colors while Frankie Dettori watched from fifth as he sided with the mare, Alo Pura.  Rarely have we seen Frankie make the wrong choice, but that was most definitely the case on this occasion.

5.  Late night pace bias unfounded
After the opening night of the 2010 Carnival ended with three consecutive front-runners making near all the running en route to wins.  That trend was totally discounted over the two nights from this week.

6.  Sir Gerry fails to re-up
One of the biggest angles we saw coming into the 2010 Carnival, when reviewing the 2009 Carnival, was the inability of longshot winners to find their form a second time.  All but two big priced winners at the 2009 Carnival managed to do it again (Gladiatorus and Snaffy) and Sir Gerry, at 49-1 internationally, 25-1 in the UK, could only muster fourth on Friday after being backed in at much shorter odds.

7.  DeKock third stringers overbet, underperform
While trainer Mike DeKock has had another strong start to a Carnival, winning five races and earning four other placings, his stable still has some old plodders who are well-backed but simply don’t class up with the rest of the barn.  Friday’s last race saw Art of War and Rocks Off take attention, most of that going to the former, let go as 5-2 co-favorite with Rockette.  Art of War never picked up the running and finished in mid-pack.  Let the reminder stand – when DeKock runs horses that don’t appear to match the usual caliber of the stable, chances are they don’t perform that way either.  Raceplayers must recognize the better crop with a check of the past performance / form guide and recognize they must play the horse, not the trainer.

8.  Horse to watch from this week
Friday’s Cape Verdi (G3) saw Soneva take a nice win over Aspectoflove.  While Mike De Kock’s Zirconeum seems better over longer ground and found her best stride when late, I was impressed with the fifth place finish of Purple Sage, who galloped out well past the winner well.  Also, Joanna Morgan trainee Fourpenny Lane was slammed in a chain reaction once Aspectoflove shifted for more running room, but still stayed on to finish just off the flank of Zirconeum, but seventh.

9.  LISTEN to the great Dubai Racing Channel broadcast
For those with any access to the simulcast feed from Dubai, which is actually the live coverage provided by the Dubai Racing Channel, LISTEN up.  Trainer Doug Watson absolutely glowed about his horse, Barbecue Eddie, after another of his, Force Freeze, had won.  Watson made it back to back wins and the BBQ man himself was 13-1 in the US and 25-1 in the UK pools.  Their fabulous coverage has also integrated the most useful application of the TrakUS system ever.  Brett Williams, Laura King, Jason Ford, and Fanny Salmon have really added so much to the Carnival coverage this year with their insight, interviews, and presence, done all without commercial interruption.  If you haven’t caught any of the coverage…don’t delay!

Next week brings us just one night of racing, Thursday, featuring the UAE 2000 Guineas and the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3).  Good luck!

Green Coast was a strong second in his first start since an unplaced run in the Godolphin Mile (G2).  Daragh O’Donohue will be back aboard for the ride after finishing 1.5 lengths behind Montpellier on December 4 at Jebel Ali.  Erwan Charpy sends out Commander Cave, hopelessly beaten in a turf try at Abu Dhabi a fortnight back off a 13-month layoff but has three wins from eight starts over synthetic surfaces in the UK.  The horse by Tale of the Cat raced in Godolphin blue before the long break.  Kevin Shea has the ride.

The first race of the six event meeting is a conditions event for 3-year-olds run over 1,200 meters and has drawn a field of 16.  Mike De Kock sends Boss Professor for his career debut along with stablemate Jodi, making her third lifetime start.  Both were private purchases from South America and race in the colors of Mohammed Jaber Abdullah.  Satish Seemar has a pair of Saudi youngsters making their second lifetime starts, including Exceedingly Fast, second to Bailerus in his debut at Jebel Ali a few weeks back. 

Good luck and enjoy Friday’s card at Jebel Ali.

Watson has three other starters in the race including Barbecue Eddie, fourth home in the 2008 Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) but unplaced in two local starts at the 2009 Dubai International Racing Carnival and a try at Jebel Ali in March.  Top weight goes to HRH Princess Haya’s Escape Route, a winner at Jebel Ali on November 6 when sprinting five furlongs for trainer Satish Seemar.  He’ll also send out Terrific Challenge, a sprinting winner at the 2008 Winter Racing Challenge and the 2007 winner of the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3).