Race 1 – $55,000 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 (G1) for purebred Arabians, 2,000 meters, Tapeta

#9 NO RISK AL MAURY leaves us no choice but to put him up top.  His performance on opening night was a strong, easy win, and another similar performance could leave us a monumental showdown of top Arabians in the Kahayla Classic to kick off the World Cup card.  The pick.  #10 KANDAR DU FALGAS was not completely overwhelmed in his fourth on opening night and stands to come on for that run.  #8 VITE ROYALE goes close and adds a visor for this event; his rash of placings could continue here.  It is worth noting that #6 RABAH DE CARRERE ran incredibly well in his only lifetime start over all-weather.

1st – #9 NO RISK AL MAURY, 2nd – #10 KANDAR DU FALGAS, 3rd – #8 VITE ROYALE

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 2 – $250,000 Bahri Al Bastakiya (Listed), 1,900 meters, Tapeta

Any way you look at it, Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum has had a magnificent Carnival, landing the UAE Oaks and UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) with homebred offspring from Redoute’s Choice.  Sadly, his #1 MUSIR was declared a non-runner late Tuesday and his quest to become the second UAE Triple Crown is foiled.  So where do we go from here?

The popular choice in most of the international wagering is likely to center on #8 VALE OF YORK, the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champion.  That win came from nowhere, frankly, and had runner-up Lookin At Lucky not endured such a monumentally wide trip, chances are we wouldn’t have seen Ahmed Ajtebi in the winner’s circle that day.  Given what Godolphin has said about this son of Invisible Spirit, I tend to think his chance to win is a small one, even with the Musir scratch.  Don’t take a short price if you don’t have to…I won’t.

I’m siding with #4 DELLA BARBA.  Assistant trainer Stephane Chevalier was very positive about the chances of this colt by Della Francesca and his third behind Musir in the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3), his first start in almost seven months, was a very decent performance.  He stands to come on for that run with a win over the track and the breeding suggests he can get this longer trip, a 300 meter jump over his previous long.  Della Francesca was a winner over 2,000 meters in the UK and we could see Della Barba improving Thursday.

#13 UNCLE TOM was really closing on #14 MENDIP last time out.  Both ran great races, but I thought Uncle Tom was the real eye-catcher out of the race.  Mendip has every reason to improve off that last effort and the breeding is there to suggest he can handle the trip.  Uncle Tom is likely to be a bit of a price and could pull off a mild upset with the win, that we consider quite possible.

1st – #4 DELLA BARBA, 2nd – #13 UNCLE TOM, 3rd – #14 MENDIP

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Race 3 – $200,000 Elnadim Mahab Al Shimaal (G3), 1,200 meters, Tapeta

It is worth noting that the 2009 winner of this race, Gayego, skips an appearance here in what might be a lesson learned for Godolphin.  His run second off the layoff late in 2009, winning the Ancient Title at Santa Anita, was so big that Saeed bin Suroor and Team Blue might think it best to leave him in the barn with the big race on the horizon.  I have heard nothing otherwise to indicate an injury.  Now, on to those who are here…

#2 DESERT PARTY will go sprinting in his first start since sustaining an injury in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).  He was a top pick of mine that day and caught an awful trip where he was jostled about quite a bit.  The problem?  This trip seems too short for him and I would be impressed as anything if he came out guns ablaze with a big effort.  I just doubt we see the best from him in this spot.  Fourth.

#7 WAR ARTIST ran the fastest 1,200 meters of the Carnival so far and gapped the field well turning for home with a burst from in between runners.  He is saddled with an added 3.5 kilos for this run, which could prove some added challenge.  There is little one can do to avoid comparing his win to that of #10 FORCE FREEZE, whose second over Star Crowned was later franked when he came back to win last week.  The former was more visually impressive than the latter, and the times don’t lie. 

#3 BARBECUE EDDIE struggled to repeat his form from early in the Carnival after breaking slow, absolutely killing his chances.  Willie Supple rushed him up to the lead and forced him on, leading to the eventual backpedaling we saw.  He totes an added 5.5 kilos on Thursday and faces some tougher company. 

#12 MUTHEEB had a troubled trip three back and followed up with a win by a handy five over Stoic.  He too was no matche for Sirocco Breeze when second on February 18 and makes his fourth start of the Carnival.  If anything, the breeding on this colt suggests he would prefer a longer trip, not a shorter one.  As for #4 PRINCE SHAUN, is there anything wrong with thinking he can’t run back to a decent placing he did before?  Leahurst is pointed to the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), and this gelding scoped dirty earlier in the season.  With the hot pace likely, he could come sporting from the back.  I think a placing chance also needs to be given to #1 PALAZZONE whose third over 1,400 meters in February 11 was a game run.  The 200 meters drop should benefit him as well.

1st – #7 WAR ARTIST, 2nd – #3 BARBECUE EDDIE, 3rd – #4 PRINCE SHAUN   

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 4 – $200,000 Alhaarth Burj Nahaar (G3), 1,600 meters, Tapeta

This Godolphin Mile (G2) prep gives us a host of solid Carnival performers, including handy winners #6 SKYSURFERS and #7 CALMING INFLUENCE, both for the home teamers.  Skysurfers has been handled with gentle care, not debuting until late in his 3-year-old season and blasted a strong field two weeks ago over the same trip.  He actually gets a slight weight break here and has been quoted in some pools for the Dubai World Cup (G1).  While you cannot doubt the running lines, I’m leary of the price, and the ability to bounce back so fast after taking so long to get to the races. 

My pick here is #5 FORGOTTEN VOICE, who flashed home in the Maktoum Challenge R1 (G3) on opening night.  His move was the most eye-catching from that race and I really thought he stamped himself a World Cup contender.  Jeremy Noseda is taking the cautious approach with the son of Danehill Dancer, who was unbeaten on the all-weather before that strong second to Gloria De Campeao.  His Maktoum Challenge run was somewhat troubled with traffic and he made up about ten to twelve lengths on the leaders after being the last horse to turn for home.  Ryan Moore has to be confident getting back aboard and it is worth noting that Midshipman, fourth that day, came back to win handy last week, while the third home, Consul General, confirmed that effort with another third behind Skysurfers. 

#12 SONEVA is a filly against the boys in this spot and was game as could be winning the Cape Verde (G3) on February 5.  Second home that day, Aspectoflove, came back to run another strong race in the Balanchine (G3) last week.  The breeding lines on Soneva indicate she should not be frightful of a race away from the grass. 

It is also tough to ignore #9 GREEN COAST, a winner two weeks ago over a seven furlong trip here.  We’ve talked much about him in our analysis before, he is a consistent type who loves getting in the frame.  The stakes go up today. 

The eleventh placing for #10 DON RENATO, who had been 18-for-22 in the placings prior to his Meydan debut, was uninspiring.  Perhaps he doesn’t like the surface or maybe something just went wrong.  We can give him another shot to grab a piece of the pie before falling off the bandwagon.

1st – #5 FORGOTTEN VOICE, 2nd – #12 SONEVA, 3rd – 6 SKYSURFERS

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 5 -  $250,000 Marju Dubai City of Gold (G2), 2,485 meters, turf

Could this race have a few more question marks?  Does #9 PAN RIVER re-confirm his form, franked a week ago when Lucky Find was a handy winner over Tapeta?  Will #12 QUIJANO finally win another race that isn’t held at Milan?  He is the back-to-back winner of a stakes race there but started his career 10-for-11 and is 4-for-21 since, with the two Milan wins and two in his native Germany.  He’s almost always close and tough to throw out…he looks for his first Carnival win since 2007, when he won this very race.

Does #5 HALICARNASSUS keep thriving?  His second over Tapeta was encouraging, his win over Mourilyan was downright impressive, making all the running and holding sway over this trip.  You never know when this entire wants to keep staying!

Will #6 PURPLE MOON prep again with a decent performance with eyes on a bigger prize?  Fourth beaten more than two last year in this event, the son of Galileo came back to a devastating third in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) and has been off ever since for Luca Cumani.  The layoff is the primary concern, but you know Luca will have him as fit as possible.  #14 KING OF ROME gets back on turf after four local efforts that have some quality behind them. 

And then we have the classy #2 CAMPANOLOGIST, winner over Bankable at Windsor last year and the keeper of some solid company.  How does he take off the shelf?  He will run forward with Halicarnassus and holds that awesome class line when he bested Conduit back in 2008. 

Find me the dart board, I’m stumped.  Let’s go with #6 Purple Moon.  Pan River was asked for a ton of run last time and while he was actually in front of two next out winners, the overall field quality just wasn’t the same as today.  Pick an angle – you can apply to just about anyone here.

1st – #6 PURPLE MOON, 2nd – #12 QUIJANO, 3rd – #2 CAMPANOLOGIST

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 6 – $300,000 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 (G2), 2,000 meters, Tapeta

The great race mare #8 VODKA makes her lifetime debut away from the turf and stands to use this as a prep for the Dubai World Cup (G1), if things go well, or a leg-stretcher for the Dubai Duty Free (g1) if things do not.  She is a real firecracker, winning ten of 25 lifetime starts, but if you think I have enough sure-footed confidence to put her on top – you are crazy.  I absolutely must see one from her before judging. 

Godolphin unveils #11 CAVALRYMAN, a solid third in the Prix d’la Arc de Triomphe, just two lengths behind Sea The Stars, and was incredibly impressive to have stayed on throughout the running.  A son of Halling, a winner of two legs of the Maktoum Challenge from years past, you should think that Cavalryman can get over the Tapeta, training in Dubai this winter. 

#5 GLORIA DE CAMPEAO, winner of the first leg of this event on opening night, goes second off the shelf and has been doing some of the best running of his career in the last year.  If that January race were 100 meters more, he is a loser.  Can he win with the same trip over 2,000 meters today?  I don’t think so. 

I have long-argued that #14 JOE LOUIS was best around 2,000 meters, and he showed that when winning over the trip in Saudi three starts back, last November.  He was our narrow pick over Well Armed in the 2009 Dubai World Cup, and well, you know how that turned out.  Can he get over the Tapeta?  We’ll see.  Again – this is about recency.  Ignore the last start when Wind Flow pulled a monument King’s Cup upset after a ridiculous pace-duel compromised the normal run of the race.  He could challenge for a spot.

#2 ALLYBAR pops up in the rankings five pounds while #1 LIZARD’S DESIRE is up eight, both dual-Carnival winners over the distance.  Their recency edge, to be, puts them on top in this event.  While other horses outclass them on past form, you cannot knock the recent ability they have shown to get over this course.  How well Allybar does after a significant exertion last time is a bit of a question, but that win over well-backed Crowded House was a stong one.  I think both could run big ones again, and to a different degree, will be surprised if either of these DO NOT run a decent race. 

1st – #2 ALLYBAR, 2nd – #1 LIZARD’S DESIRE , 3rd – #14 JOE LOUIS

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 7 – $250,000 Haatel Jebel Hatta (G2), 1,800 meters, Turf

This is a fitting way to end Super Thursday with one of the best fields of the Carnival.  I don’t think we can argue that #1 PRESVIS is back in the right spot.  It is just a REALLY tough spot.  The reuniting with Ryan Moore is a positive change and the return to turf a good sign as well.  He is appropriately top-rated along with #8 JUSTENUFFHUMOR, who should be off a few pegs in my mind. 

#3 ALEXANDROS was spot-on in his Al Rashidiya (G3) victory over Crowded House, just powering away from the field.  He runs forward whereas Presvis often flashes from the tail.  He will be the one catch, in my eye.  #6 IBN BATTUTA was gallant in defeat in the Al Fahidi Fort (G2) but it has been a long season and with the waters even deeper here, another placing might be the limit.  #7 ZIRCONEUM was our pick, twice this Carnival.  She didn’t have much excuse last time when Deem won but she just keeps looking more and more like Jay Peg to me, who labored with decent runs in the Carnival and exploded on World Cup night, winning the Dubai Duty Free (G1) in course record time. 

#5 LAHALEEB was a monstrous longshot winner at Woodbine and sold after that.  She would seem to be facing a tough task.  In the end, the powerful stride of Alexandros leans me in his direction.

1st – #3 ALEXANDROS, 2nd – #1 PRESVIS, 3rd – #7 ZIRCONEUM

The scratch stands to benefit Godolphin’s Vale of York, the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner, making his first start since in this event.

Asiatic Boy romped him in the 2000 Guineas prep before taking the main trial, the Al Bastakiya, and then dominating the UAE Derby (G2).  His last win was in the third round of last year’s Maktoum Challenge (G2) where he defeated Happy Boy and stable companion Art of War.  Six of his seven lifetime wins came over the Nad Al Sheba strip. 

After some decent efforts in the US, including a second in the 2009 Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs, the Argentine-bred was sent to his native land where he will stand the 2010 season privately.

Click HERE for more from Thoroughbred Times.

DeKock received former Coolmore contenders Frozen Fire, winner of the 2008 Irish Derby (G1) and Golden Sword, 2009 Irish Derby placer, midway through last year with sights set on the 2010 DIRC.  “Frozen Fire is the most forward and likely to race first.” 

Eagle Mountain (pictured below at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup), after time off to recover from an injury that forced him out of the 2009 Dubai festivities, returned with a decent leg-stretcher in top conditions when fifth, beaten almost five lengths in December’s Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup (G1), a race he won in 2008.  De Kock will test the classy horse over Tapeta and might hold an Dubai World Cup entry. 

Honour Devil, winner of the 2008 UAE Derby will be back for more action, as will long time companion Royal Vintage, the 2008 Al Bastakiya winner, who was several beats off at the 2009 Carnival.   

Seven of DeKock’s runners are recent imports from South Africa.  The 3-year-old filly Zirconeum leads the charge for DeKock’s raiders, after a dazzling run when second in the 2009 Vodacom Durban July (G1).  DeKock has earlier reported that he “thinks she might be better than Irridescence,” who herself had won the Balanchine (G3) in 2003 and was an international Group One winner.  Zirconeum was closest to becoming the first filly to win the Durban July since the great Ipi Tombe, winner of the 2003 Dubai Duty Free (G1), landed the spoils.  De Kock reported that she is likely to go the route of Sun Classique, beginning with the Cape Verdi (G3) en route to the Duty Free.

Musir, winner of the Golden Horseshoe (G1), adds more fuel to DeKock’s fire from South Africa, and could go for either the Tapeta races leading on the UAE Triple Crown trail or perhaps stay on the grass.  Other South Africans coming for the Carnival include Mr. Crazy Boy, Wonder Lawn, Our Giant, and Raihana. 

2009 Carnival performers expected to return for a go at Meydan include winners Front House (Dubai City of Gold – G2), Silver Mist (Al Rashidiya – G3), Art of War, Warsaw, and Hunting Tower.  They are joined by past Carnival runners Biarritz, Engruipdo, Frosty Secret, Imbongi, King of Rome (pictured below), Mr. Brock, Rocks Off, and Stubbs Art.

Click HERE for the full list from DeKock’s website.

#10 – Ajtebi scores a homegrown double
The 2009 Dubai Duty Free and Dubai Sheema Classic could not have been more different races.  In the end, the same jockey rode both winners as former camel jockey Ahmed Ajtebi became the first native Emirati to ride a winner on World Cup night.  Just minutes after making all the running in a Duty Free blowout aboard Gladiatorus, Ajtebi flew home over the outside of the Sheema Classic field with Eastern Anthem to land consecutive $5 million races, this one, by a nose.

#9 – Asiatic Boy becomes first winner of the UAE Triple Crown
He arrived from Argentina with a win and a placing from two lifetime starts, when he left the Emirates, Asiatic Boy had his name in the record books.  A Mike de Kock trainee, Asiatic Boy’s 2007 campaign included a conditions event win before landing the triumphant trio of sophomore events, the UAE 2000 Guineas, the Al Bastakiya, and the UAE Derby (video posted below).

#8 – Paolini and Right Approach provide a Duty Free deadheat
The judged stewed over the photograph of the 2004 Dubai Duty Free finish  for what seemed like an eternity, but in the end, could not separate Paolini and Right Approach in a ding-dong stretch duel that saw both horses fly home over the field from the rear.  While they exchanged bumps, no action was taken and the race stands as the only heater in the history of the World Cup meeting.

#7 – Curlin wins at the Dubai International Racing Carnival
This decade saw the growth of the DIRC into a top class race meeting where Dubai World Cup meeting contenders prepped.  Prior to Curlin’s demolition of the 2008 Dubai World Cup, trainer Steve Asmussen sent the son of Smart Strike to get a feel for the local conditions, knowing that his performances tended to improve when making a second trip over a course.  His win in an otherwise ordinary race gave the Carnival an added level of credibility on the global stage as an American Horse of the Year made his first start of a multiple graded stakes winning campaign amidst the dunes of Dubai.

#6 – Madjani makes it three-in-a-row
The purebred Arabian won three consecutive Dubai Kahayla Classics beginning in 2005, wholeheartedly dominating the breed for the decade.  His dominance over his competition, a fiercely contested group, especially in the UAE, was respected by the Nad Al Sheba crowd when, in 2008, the 8-year-old failed to completed an unprecedented fourth win in the race.  Mizzna, a mare, took a two length win but when Madjani returned to the walking ring to be unsaddled, the crowd obliged with an applause deserving a champion.

Asiatic Boy, racing for Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum, will carry 122 pounds with Alan Garcia aboard, the lightest impost since his maiden campaign in Argentina.  The son of Not For Sale, formerly trained by Mike De Kock, will also be medicated with Lasix for this nine furlong event which drew a field of seven others. 

Midnight Cry Stable’s Einstein is the top-weighted favorite and is seeking to become only the second horse to win Grade 1 races on dirt, turf, and a synthetic surface.  The Helen Pitts-Blasi trainee won the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill on the Kentucky Derby undercard. 

It is difficult to hypothesize on Asiatic Boy’s likely performance here as his 2009 campaign is the least-credentialed in his lifetime.  The Stephen Foster marks only the 16th appearance in his lifetime but his final Dubai World Cup prep, the third round of the Maktoum Challenge (G2), appears, in hindsight, to have been a relatively weak renewal.  Asiatic Boy’s appearance in America seems an attempt to revive a career that has clearly been best served on dirt.  While he is likely to improve second off the layoff, Asiatic Boy is 6-years-old and intact, and his connections will surely keep that in mind if his performances are not up to par.

Arson Squad, 11th in the 2009 Dubai World Cup, returns in the Stephen Foster also, carrying 118 pounds.

Owner Lansdon Robbins reported the possible trip to Steve Byk on the Thoroughbred Racing Radio Network’s “At the Races.”  At 12-1 on the morning line last Saturday, National Kid went off as the 2.40-1 wagering favorite and sat just off a hot tempo and won by 1.5 lengths in 1:35.  The final time was tied for the fastest mile on the Gulfstream turf in the first week of racing there. 

“He ran very impressively during his debut at Kentucky Downs and Calvin Borel got off him and said [we] had something impressive,” Robbins told Byk.  “Our strategy all along was to get a good one and point to the UAE Derby.  What we are trying to do now is to strategize to get him over there for a prep race [$250,000 listed Al Bastakiya, 8 furlongs, dirt] on March 5.”

Trained by Ken McPeek, National Kid’s efforts have been incredibly impressive and it helps that McPeek has had success in Dubai before, with his Hard Buck finishing second in the 2004 Dubai Sheema Classic.