1.  Thursday = parade of favorites
Most often, racing in Dubai is not kind to favorites but Thursday witnessed a steady stream of well-backed winners, led my Mike De Kock’s 3-year-old winner, Musir.  Alexandros took the Al Rashidiya with a strong stretch kick in the first race over the turf course, followed by a perfectly timed Frankie Dettori ride on Age of Reason in the 2,800 meters marathon, giving the Italian the first two turf races at Meydan.  King of Rome franked the form of stablemate Lizard’s Desire when winning the Thursday finale.

2.  Friday = longshots!
So Shiny, a 16-1 winner at the 2009 Carnival, was ignored by the international punters and sent off at 30-1 (14-1 in the UK) when defeating the fast-closing Indian performer, Oasis Star, who seems to have a future regardless of the second place finish.  Barbecue Eddie found his form back on the all-weather, where he had success in America two years back, and ran on incredibly well to score a mild upset.  Snaffy loved the drop in class and a return to the grass winning at 16-1 while Kal Barg swept past all with a wide stretch move in the Friday finale at 30-1 in the international pool.

3.  Tapeta remains even
So Shiny and Barbecue Eddie took their sprint wins on Friday from front-running positions and made all.  Anmar and Kal Barg won route races from well back, the latter coming incredibly wide to do it, even wider that Mister Fasliyev who was strung out turning for home.  From Thursday, Mr. Brock was wide throughout and stayed on incredibly well for a handy score while perfect tripped Tartan Gigha didn’t have enough. 

4.  Dettori makes a rare bad choice
Global City, with Ted Durcan up, landed a sprint event on Thursday carrying the primary Godolphin colors while Frankie Dettori watched from fifth as he sided with the mare, Alo Pura.  Rarely have we seen Frankie make the wrong choice, but that was most definitely the case on this occasion.

5.  Late night pace bias unfounded
After the opening night of the 2010 Carnival ended with three consecutive front-runners making near all the running en route to wins.  That trend was totally discounted over the two nights from this week.

6.  Sir Gerry fails to re-up
One of the biggest angles we saw coming into the 2010 Carnival, when reviewing the 2009 Carnival, was the inability of longshot winners to find their form a second time.  All but two big priced winners at the 2009 Carnival managed to do it again (Gladiatorus and Snaffy) and Sir Gerry, at 49-1 internationally, 25-1 in the UK, could only muster fourth on Friday after being backed in at much shorter odds.

7.  DeKock third stringers overbet, underperform
While trainer Mike DeKock has had another strong start to a Carnival, winning five races and earning four other placings, his stable still has some old plodders who are well-backed but simply don’t class up with the rest of the barn.  Friday’s last race saw Art of War and Rocks Off take attention, most of that going to the former, let go as 5-2 co-favorite with Rockette.  Art of War never picked up the running and finished in mid-pack.  Let the reminder stand – when DeKock runs horses that don’t appear to match the usual caliber of the stable, chances are they don’t perform that way either.  Raceplayers must recognize the better crop with a check of the past performance / form guide and recognize they must play the horse, not the trainer.

8.  Horse to watch from this week
Friday’s Cape Verdi (G3) saw Soneva take a nice win over Aspectoflove.  While Mike De Kock’s Zirconeum seems better over longer ground and found her best stride when late, I was impressed with the fifth place finish of Purple Sage, who galloped out well past the winner well.  Also, Joanna Morgan trainee Fourpenny Lane was slammed in a chain reaction once Aspectoflove shifted for more running room, but still stayed on to finish just off the flank of Zirconeum, but seventh.

9.  LISTEN to the great Dubai Racing Channel broadcast
For those with any access to the simulcast feed from Dubai, which is actually the live coverage provided by the Dubai Racing Channel, LISTEN up.  Trainer Doug Watson absolutely glowed about his horse, Barbecue Eddie, after another of his, Force Freeze, had won.  Watson made it back to back wins and the BBQ man himself was 13-1 in the US and 25-1 in the UK pools.  Their fabulous coverage has also integrated the most useful application of the TrakUS system ever.  Brett Williams, Laura King, Jason Ford, and Fanny Salmon have really added so much to the Carnival coverage this year with their insight, interviews, and presence, done all without commercial interruption.  If you haven’t caught any of the coverage…don’t delay!

Next week brings us just one night of racing, Thursday, featuring the UAE 2000 Guineas and the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3).  Good luck!

In the feature on the Windsor card, the Totepool Winter Hill Stakes (G3) is led by Bankable (pictured below), a winner at the 2009 Carnival, fifth in the Dubai Duty Free (G1), third in the Singapore International Cup (G1), and unraced since.  Bankable has some of the best back class form of 2008 when second to Raven’s Pass and Eagle Mountain and hopes to get back to winning ways in this ten furlong affair. 

Run over an extended 13 furlongs, Mourilyan stands one of the better chances amongst the Carnival alums having been second to Schiaparelli in the Goodwood Cup (G2) over two miles and drops in for three furlongs of shorter ground.  Kings Gambit ran a very strong race, his best in months, when third beaten 1 3/4 lengths by Kirklees in the SkyBet York Stakes (G2) over an extended ten furlongs and, the opposite of Mourilyan, stretches out for this trip.  Age of Reason runs second string for Godolphin with Ted Durcan aboard and makes his second start following a layoff.  The son of Halling was eased when second favorite of five in the Fred Archer Stakes (Listed) at Newmarket on June 27.

Also on Saturday at Newbury, the improving Balthazaar’s Gift will be one of the main players in the CGA Hungerford Stakes (G2) over seven furlongs.  The son of Xaar won a handicap at Nad Al Sheba in February and has been placed three times since then after a lowly dirt try in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1).  Godolphin’s newest purchase, Evasive, is a likely top choice in the race.

Balthazaar’s Gift, the winner of a 1200 meters handicap on the eighth night of the Carnival, will make his reappearance following a winter in Dubai in Saturday’s John Bovington Memorial Criterion Stakes (G3) at Newmarket over seven furlongs.  The son of Xaar was 11th of 12 in the 2009 Dubai Golden Shaheen, won by Big City Man.  One of his challengers in a scheduled field of nine is Imbongi, making his first start in 114 days following a fourth in the Jebel Hatta (G2). 

Age of Reason is one of just five runners scheduled to jump away in the Totesport.com Fred Archer Stakes (Listed), also at Newmarket.  This will be the first start for the 4-year-old bay gelding since a win in the Qatar International Cup in Doha, which was preceded by a rousing Carnival victory over Young Mick. 

Over at Newcastle, the John Smith Northumberland Plate Heritage Handicap features Godolphin’s Friston Forest, who narrowly bested Dubai Racing Club Gold Cup winner Veracity in his only start of the 2009 Carnival.  Friston Forest was second beaten a short head by Caracciola in a listed race at York over 14 furlongs on May 30.  The strong second that day was franked when 12-year-old Caracciola re-upped his form at Ascot with a popular win in the Queen Alexandra Stakes on closing day.

Age of Reason was making his first start since a win in the 2009 Qatar International Cup, a race that represented the royal blue’s first win on that peninsula.  Ridden by Martin Dwyer, Age of Reason narrowly held last year’s Gran Premio di Milano second, Voila Ici, at bay for the main runner-up spot.  Age of Reason was victorious in his second Dubai International Racing Carnival start of 2009, landing the Dubal Potline Handicap over 2400 meters, defeating Young Mick by five lengths in a field of twelve.

Click HERE for a grainy YouTube video of the race.