The action was fast and furious over the 14 races this week from Meydan, eight of which were group-rated stakes events. Below, in no particular order, are our thoughts on the week that was.
1. Most impressive performance of the week: PRESVIS
Hands down. Presvis was absolutely full of run when galloping up behind Alexandros in the Jebel Hatta, and then angling off the rail to roll away from one of the more impressive winners of the Carnival. This race set him up incredibly well for the Dubai Duty Free and is, in my mind, the horse to beat off this run.
2. Don’t go crazy about MENDIP. The winner of the Al Bastakiya landed the win, over the 1,900 meters, in 1:59.42. Of eight races run at the Carnival over 1,900 meters, Mendip’s final time was the fifth fastest. The three slower races were run on each of the first three nights of the Carnival, when the Tapeta was playing noticably slower. That is what is so overwhelming about his run: the Tapeta played faster than any other night of the Carnival on Super Thursday, with new course marks set for 1,600 meters, 2,000 meters, and the 1,200 meters mark was just .08 seconds off. So – on the night of the fastest set of races the entire Carnival – Mendip, and co-pacesetting Della Barba, lull the front-runners to sleep and Mendip draws away with no one closing from behind. Granted, he’s undefeated…but don’t kid yourself – the Al Bastakiya WAS NOT a truly-run race.
3. What an amazing effort from DESERT PARTY, winning the Mahab Al Shimaal in near course-record time. First up since an injury suffered in the Kentucky Derby (G1), the colt rallied and kicked away from Mutheeb, who looked sure to go past in the final 200 meters. While I thought, at this point, 1,200 meters might be too short, I have to think he poses Godolphin a big question as to where they go with him: Godolphin Mile or Mahab Al Shimaal. We’ll find out soon enough.
4. Blinkers on CAT JUNIOR and the miler took off. Running the fastest 1,600 meters of the Carnival when winning the Burj Nahaar (G3). I was not surprised that SKYSURFERS faded in the stretch drive. Off a huge effort in just his second lifetime start, defeating the prepping Eagle Mountain, Skysurfers seemed destined to regress on such short rest for a lightly-raced 4-year-old.
5. While we were dead-on in our analysis about staying away from both VALE OF YORK and VODKA, how about RED DESIRE? The Japanese filly, who ran a course record for 2,000 meters, swept from 13th to first in the stretch, and just flat out ran with abandon in her eighth lifetime start. By Manhattan Cafe, Red Desire’s worst lifetime run was third beaten 1.5 lengths, by Vodka, last November. Click HERE to read more about the up and coming, privately held, stallion, Manhattan Cafe. I’ll gladly admit that I just completely overlooked her in this field, and while hindsight is crystal clear, some insight to her pedigree would have indicated that Red Desire clearly had the goods to get over a surface away from turf.
6. SIROCCO BREEZE ran the fastest 1,400 meters of the Carnival on Friday while toting 62 kilograms, a not unsubstantial effort. He stands to be a progressive runner for Godolphin, who now has four wins from six lifetime starts.
7. If I am Mike De Kock, my thought is to send IMBONGI to the Godolphin Mile (G2) over the Tapeta instead of the Dubai Duty Free (G1), mostly because I sincerely think he is a better horse over the 1,600 meters trip. Had today’s race been longer, I suspect Purple Sage would have run him down.
DubaiRaceNight.com coverage of the Dubai World Cup preparations begins Monday, March 22 from Meydan. We will have plenty of insight over the course of the next few weeks, including, disproving some of the myths about racing on the Tapeta.
Final 2010 Dubai International racing Carnival tipping results:
Pat Cummings: 16 wins, 10 seconds, 8 thirds from 70 top selections (23% wins, 49% top three)
Amelia Baldree: 11 wins, 15 seconds, 4 thirds from 70 top selections (16% wins, 43#% top three)