Meydan 2010 DIRC Night 4 Analysis (Thursday)

The fourth night of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival offers an eight race card with co-features, the UAE 1000 Guineas (Listed) and Al Shindagha Sprint. Below is our analysis for the night’s races.

Race 1 – $50,000 4Men Conditions, 1,400 meters, Tapeta

Saeed bin Suroor has a five-handed entry here and most seem likely with a chance.  #12 MENDIP is a likely favorite drawing Frankie Dettori after an easy win at Kempton Park in September over a 1,600 meters trip.  #5 CAPPIWINO was purchased out of a September maiden race at Laurel Park in the US and while it was impressive, the gelding by Soto drited inside when well-clear under the drive of Malcolm Franklin.  The field was nothing of particular interest and gets Godolphin apprentice Mikael Barzalona to ride.  Obviously, his lack of blue silks is a concern.

#7 FAREEJ was quite classy in both wins in the UK and did so in some quite decent times.  Ted Durcan has outfoxed Frankie Dettori for a few mounts early and this could possible be another.  Regardless, he seems like he would need more ground than the 1,400 meters of this lid-lifter.  #3 DIGITAL seems a cut below the Brazilian bests and the Cintra/Blandi combination has been hit or miss.  Last week, trainer Pascal Bary indicated that #2 UNCLE TOM could be any kind and they were hoping to get a race to see if he liked the Tapeta. 

Imagine this – another tough call with many possible winners.

1st – #12 MENDIP, 2nd – #7 FAREEJ, 3rd – #5 CAPPIWINO

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Race 2 – $110,000 Aquarius Handicap, 1,400 meters, Tapeta

#3 SWOP was one on our “to-watch” list after flashing home like a freight train on opening night at Meydan, weaving in and out of horses to snatch third, 2.5 lengths behind Leahurst.  Mutheeb, fifth and unlucky in that race, came back to win brilliantly last week, and while we might like to see Swop over slightly more ground, he is a logical top choice that we can definitely back.

#4 GREEN COAST finished just behind Swop while staying on well in that event.  He rarely runs a clunker when spotted in the right conditions and is surely one of the key contenders here. 

#1 OTAARED ran well over the course at Jebel Ali, and his third behind Jet Express is nothing to be down on.  I thought he had a chance at the minor placings on opening night when facing the toughest company of his career, he finished an even eighth that day.  If there was but one single element of bias on the Tapeta, it showed that first night of racing when front-runners stayed on incredibly well in the last three races of the night.  Otaared was well behind and progressed to pass some also-rans.  Back at his preferred distance, there is no reason to think he can’t get a piece of the action.

#14 Palazzone has some half-decent form on the synthetics in Ireland at Dundalk and Gerard Lyons has placed more that 50 percent of the time with his Dubai runners.  This guy has a shot to get in the frame.

1st – #3 SWOP, 2nd – #4 GREEN COAST, 3rd – #1 OTAARED

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Race 3 – $110,000 Inside Out Handicap, 2,200 metets, Tapeta

In case you needed a better example of the difficulty in handicapping Dubai form, check out this event, where the 14 runners are grouped between 97 and 104 in the ratings.  #4 EMERALD WILDERNESS was one we fancied for the minor placings on opening night and he finished a respectable sixth and closed well in the final stages of that 1,900 meters event, won by fourth race choice Lizard’s Desire.  He gets a group with similar form, but an extra 200 meters which should be right to his liking.  His success over all-weather in the UK came in a race over 2,100 meters and was later second a head in a 2,400 meters race.  Without a “slap-me-silly” top pick in this event, we will ride on the price of Emerald Wilderness and Jamie Spencer.

The minor placings in our picks could literally span the spectrum.  Intra-race choices, for either international bettors or tri-cast players, could drive you up a wall to make a choice.  #3 BRIDGE OF GOLD had a tough effort on January 10 at Lingfield and re-upping that form could prove difficult following the travel.  That was his first race off a seven month pause, which will cause us some question to run back to that performance.  #1 MEERISS goes for the locally hot connections, who managed good runs last week in the Emirates and could have a say.  #8 MONTE ALTO was strong in two races at Meydan and could draw the attraction of punters off two decent placings over this trip.  And it is all or nothing for #11 HIGHLAND GLEN who has three wins from six starts, with the non-wins also being non-placings.  It’s a dartboard regardless in this race…good luck.

1st – #4 EMERALD WILDERNESS, 2nd – #1 MEERISS, 3rd – #8 MONTE ALTO

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Race 4 – $120,000 Wheels Handicap, 2,000 meters, Tapeta

We would be quite surprised if #4 LIZARD’S DESIRE does not re-up his form from the opening night of the Carnival, and could offer a unique reversal of the double from opening night with stablemate Raihana, our pick in the next race.  This gelding had a garden trip last time out and will be asked to travel from a more outward stall this time, which might be his only chance of undoing.  King of Rome franked the form last week with a win and Mike De Kock has given no reason to expect anything unusual.  Perhaps, if there is a concern, is that Lizard’s Desire isn’t upped into better class.  That’s nitpicking, though, and while we love shopping for value, really don’t think it exists here.

#1 MOIQEN has the breeding to get over the surface and raced in some solid turf company earlier last year.  Off the shelf for Doug Watson, who had two winners at last week’s meeting, a return to prominence is not out of the question.  On a different note, #8 SOY LIBRIANO ran on, finally, in the 1,900 meters trip of a week back, showing strong stride while being all too late.  He was 10.5 lengths behind Mr. Brock, a margin that would have been quite closer if the trip was longer.  These two should be the main dangers to the top pick. 

1st – #4 LIZARD’S DESIRE, 2nd – #8 SOY LIBRIANO, 3rd – #1 MOIQEN

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Race 5 - $250,000 UAE 1000 Guineas (Listed), 1,600 meters, Tapeta

#2 MENSAJERA DE LA LUZ was one of our horses to watch from the Dubai Racing Comprehensive…of course, the problem is that she faces the stout #4 RAIHANA, a blowout Dubai debut winner in the first throughbred event at Meydan.  Raihana was so good two weeks ago, I significantly question if anyone else can come back to get her, including the solid performer #14 WAASEMAH, our top-choice from the race who ran a decent second.  

The connections of Mensajera De La Luz are fully expecting she might come on for this run, so while a win is possible, we don’t think it is as probable as the confirmed, in-form, Tapeta-loving Raihana.  She was stepped up considerably in the ratings over her win, but given the quality of her performance, we think it is deserved.  As for Waasemah, there is no reason to think she doesn’t progress off that last race, and give her every chance to show it again. 

1st – #4 RAIHANA, 2nd – #14 WAASEMAH, 3rd – #2 MENSAJERA DE LA LUZ

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Race 6 – $200,000 Al Shindagha Sprint (G3), 1,200 meters, Tapeta

#2 GAYEGO makes his return for Godolphin and is an obvious selection.  While he offers no value, he was strong in victory here last year and runs well off the layoff.  His form on all-weather surfaces strong, and truly, he is a performer on just about any surface.  He was right there at the finish of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) while stymied in a tight spot at the rail and was as good as the winner in that contest.  The winner of the 2009 Mahab Al Shimaal (G3), Gayego does his running from the back and might have to pass them all to get the top check.  Still, he classes up to the field.  Godolphin has warned on his chances Thursday, acknowledging he is likely to come on for the run.  I still think he is the fastest horse in the race, on or off the shelf.

#1 OUR GIANT has raced against some of the best in South Africa, including the legendary Pocket Power, getting with 1.25 lengths of the late closing champion.  Clearly this guy is better of shorter distances, as his run following the 3.5 length defeat in the Vodacom Durban July showed.  How well does the son of Giant’s Causeway take to the Tapeta?  Still have to side with Gayego here.

There is no reason to believe that the gallant 9-year old veteran #10 INSTANT RECALL didn’t need that last race.  After a horrific debut in 2009 at Nad Al Sheba, he rebounded with three strong seconds behind some solid company.  The price stands to be very right, and while there is no doubting the fact that he is not of the caliber of the top runners here.  He has been known to run some big races in Dubai, and I don’t think he can be completely discounted.  Similarly, #9 STAR CROWNED ran a game race, almost making all last week, and now goes third off the layoff for Rashed Bouresly, a move that witnessed some success from the 7-year-old in previous seasons. 

1st – #2 GAYEGO, 2nd – #1 OUR GIANT, 3rd – #10 INSTANT RECALL

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Race 7 – $175,000 GNAds4U Handicap, 2,485 meters, Turf

#1 QUIJANO is an old warrior, but his last two wins were the same race in Milan in 2008 and 2009.  His penchant for the winner’s circle isn’t what is used to be and we suggest caution before backing him.  While it is great to see him back at the races, especially in Dubai, I just have trouble supporting him in the top spot.

#2 MOURILYAN has had plenty of Dubai success from the past and was a strong third in the Melbourne Cup (G1), closing like a shot from the rear.  Is the 2,485 meters too short for him?  That could be the problem.  He had two Carnival wins from 2008 over this trip, but with maturity came more ground, and the son of Desert Prince really seems to enjoy getting longer.  This race lacks a real pacesetter and could make it difficult to get on from far back.  A tough call, but leaning against him.

#8 TOPCLAS ran a real cracker last time out and wheels back for his third race in three weeks.  He was game this summer and if he can replicate the form from a week ago, he might have a say in the end.

The pick is #7 ONCE MORE DUBAI, who has thrived over longer distances, winning over both turf and all-weather at the 2,400 meters distance.  Fitness is a bit of a concern as his run back at York, first off the layoff in 2009, was a disappointment, but Dettori’s presence certainly makes me believe that the son of E Dubai is not using this race as a freshening for later in the campaign.  His company lines aren’t the best, but the hot connections make me think he could be right.

The wild card here is #5 HALICARNASSUS.  He normally runs with relative prominence and had a good bit of work over the Tapeta when second beaten three last time.  You just never know when he turns in a good race, as consistency has been the problem of this 6-year-old, who popped on turf at Nad Al Sheba last year despite some other disappointing efforts.  He should appreciate this trip…is it enough for a win?  Could be.  Toss of the coin.

1st – #7 ONCE MORE DUBAI, 2nd – #8 TOPCLAS, 3rd – #2 MOURILYAN

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Race 8 – $175,000 Gulf News Broadcasting Handicap, 1,800 meters, Turf

Does the Godolphin train roll on with a late double at Meydan?  Both #2 SHAWEEL and #3 SPRING OF FAME are in with solid chances as both are in more legitimate company than being also-rans in some higher quality UK races. 

#7 LUCKY FIND runs for Mike De Kock and has the back class on turf to throw out a decent performance.  That last race was his first in ten months and while you have to back a ways to find his best on grass, it could do the job.  He gets a monumental weight break of six kilos, and there is no reason to think he cannot at least face up with this bunch.

What do you do with the ex-Aidan O’Brien runner, #1 GOLDEN SWORD.  DeKock/Soumillon have been best with the former South African runners, and his barnmate, Frozen Fire, runs in the race prior.  These Ballydoyle castoffs can be uninvolved in their Dubai debuts and that was certainly the case for Frozen Fire when well beaten by Alexandros in last week’s Al Rashidiya (G3).  If Frozen Fire runs a much improved race, that does give hope for Golden Sword here, but still, he is likely to need this run. 

While the form of #5 PAN RIVER is mired in Turkey, the homebred is, regardless, 20-23 in the placings, and gets a significant weight break off the layoff.  Notice he did almost beat Halicarnassus in a short field three back.  Also, of little known form is #10 AUTONOMY, racing for Indian connections.  They were a mixed bag last week with Oasis Star running much better than Yana.  We, however, are passing here.

Lucky Find is one who could pop at a rare Mike De Kock price. 

1st – #7 LUCKY FIND, 2nd – #2 SHAWEEL, 3rd – #3 SPRING OF FAME