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Jebel Ali Spot Analysis, Preview Video – December 27

Below is our spot analysis for Friday’s meet at Jebel Ali, a meeting featuring the Jebel Ali Stakes prep, a race that has drawn two runners who finished in the first four from races on Dubai World Cup night.

Race 2 – Handicap – 1,800 metres

This really feels like a wide-open race that some might otherwise suggest is cut-and-dry on paper. You could make straightforward cases for #3 INTERPRET and #7 STREET ACT, but we really believe both have issues with consistency, enough to stay away this week. What about #9 MUTUAL FORCE? Saeed Al Mazrooei takes off a valuable three kilos, to get this guy in five kilos lighter than the next lightest rival, has two of his four wins at Jebel Ali, and really ran quite well over a long trip at Abu Dhabi last week that should have knocked the cobwebs off. Mutual Force won third up last season, and while this is his second-up run, his rust-remover last week was much better than what he did early last season.

Race 4 – Conditions – 1,200 metres

#6 MUARRAB has been so good this season, and #1 RUSSIAN ROCK is such a trier, with overwhelming local success, and a win in this race a year ago. #8 UNITED COLOR is the forgotten horse in the race, returning off a strong fifth in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. If #5 KILT ROCK finds his way back to normal, then he potentially grabs yet another piece of the pie, but it is tough to see him on top. The smoking form of Muarrab in the last is enough for put him on top.

Race 6 – Maiden – 1,400 metres

#4 DRESS DOWN is out of a very accomplished dirt-loving mare, Bare Necessities, who had eight wins from 26 starts, including several wins and placings in graded races. The best performance from Bare Necessities probably came when third, beaten 2 ½ lengths by the great Azeri in the Vanity (G1) at Hollywood Park in 2003. Now, granted, Bare Necessities isn’t in this race. Two of the three foals she has dropped, and who have made starts, are winners, but of nothing all that notable. This is far from a tough test, though, and we know these connections have popped earlier in the season. Should Richard Hughes get the balance and experience of riding Jebel Ali down to muster by the end of the card, Dress Down is a worthy runner to consider on top.

Jebel Ali – December 27
Race # Horse
1 4 Touch Gold
2 9 Mutual Force
3 2 Haatheq
4 6 Muarrab
5 5 Tiz Now Tiz Then
6 4 Dress Down


2013-2014 UAE-season-to-date: 114 races – 33 first, 17 second, 12 third (28.9% win, 54.4% top 3)

Catch the videos from TalkingHorsesUAE, previewing the day’s races. The first race is below.

One comment

  1. Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum has a few horses he keeps based in the UAE year round now that consistently run well during the Dubai Carnival, Barbecue Eddie & Mufarrh being among them. But over the past couple of seasons, none of Sheikh Hamdan’s locally based horses have outperformed Haatheq IMO, and he already has his winter in Dubai off to a flying start with a 1600 meter win on tapeta at Meydan and now an 1800 meter win on conventional dirt at Jebel-Ali. And lest we forget, the last time Haatheq was seen at the 2013 Dubai Carnival he was beaten only 3/4 lengths by fellow Shadwell star Soft Falling Rain in the G2 Godolphin Mile. Given the way his winter meeting has already begun, I’d say it’s a pretty solid bet that Haatheq will be one of the top performers among locally based horses again at the 2014 Dubai Carnival. Haatheq & Surfer have been the 2 UAE based horses who’ve caught my eye in Dubai so far. My guess is trainer Al Al Raihe will try to balance getting Haatheq starts at Meydan on tapeta during the carnival and also racing him at Jebel-Ali on conventional dirt in the Jebel Ali Mile or Jebel Ali Stakes, with all roads leading once again to another shot at the G2 Godolphin Mile at Meydan on world cup night, one would think.

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