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Finding the value in ante-post DWC markets

There should be no doubt we are hounds of value, rarely backing short priced horses and taking the risk looking for horses above fair value. Overall, it seems several of the ante-post markets are offering significant overlays to fair value, and we thought we’d offer a few thoughts on overlays, underlays, etc.  All prices are best offer as of 8:00 P.M. UAE time on Monday.

Overlays (horses priced higher than our estimate of fair value)

Godolphin Mile – Surfer (12), Barbecue Eddie (25) Haatheq (50)
Dubai Gold Cup – Cavalryman (6)
Al Quoz Sprint – Sole Power (8)
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Trinniberg (8), Private Zone (16)
Dubai Duty Free – Igugu (14)
Dubai Sheema Classic – Gentildonna (15-8), Await The Dawn (12)
Dubai World Cup – Dullahan (12), Treasure Beach (20)

Best overall at the price – Surfer

Underlays (horses priced shorter than our estimate of fair value)

Godolphin Mile – Master of Hounds (10)
UAE Derby – Secret Number (7-2)
Al Quoz Sprint – Dux Scholar (12), Joy And Fun (18)
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Gordon Lord Byron (5), Reynaldothewizard (10)
Dubai Duty Free – Trade Storm (5), French Fifteen (14)
Dubai World Cup – African Story (9), Monterosso (14), Capponi (16), Red Cadeaux (25)

Worst overall at the price – Gordon Lord Byron

 

2 comments

  1. Pat,

    Only just rediscovered this site – lost phone, lost links – I’ve got to say it’s by far the most comprehensive free site out there: nowhere do we get as much coverage, insight and unbiased opinion on one specific meeting than we do here.
    Coupled with the excellent Sky+ coverage, I’m more than confident of showing a profit on the night.

    Trade Storm has to be the NAP – any thoughts ?

    Finally, any chance of showing some post race visual coverage of Moon Ballards win in 2003, as I was there and even managed to ‘gatecrash’ the winners inclosure!
    Parterre the winner and shared Frankies’ post race interview! What a night…

    Bulmeister

  2. Going by the odd’s posted on the Racing Post web-site I have to say making Royal Delta the 4-1 favorite over Hunter’s Light at 9-2 is a joke. If this race were still being run at Nad Al Sheba on conventional dirt then I could definitely see Royal Delta being the race favorite. But she got a fair enough run in this race last year and was going backwards when it came to the business end of the race. Hunter’s Light & Kassian both will eat Royal Delta up on this surface. I didn’t get the impression watching him in the Burj Nahaar that Dullahan had much of a liking for tapeta either. You couldn’t give me ticket on Dullahan at 12-1. Animal Kingdom, IMO, has the most realistic chance of winning the Dubai World Cup of any of the American horses if he handle’s the surface. He’s explosive around bends and has an impressive closing kick late in the race.

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