Both the first two finishers are owned by King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz & Sons, with the winner trained by Bader Resaque while Fly Down is trained by Baden Al Subaie.  Holding an entry in the Dubai World Cup, it would be no surprise to see Fly Down back at Meydan. Kreem, by Hurricane Run out of the Rainbow Quest mare, En Public, holds an entry in the 3,200-metre Dubai Gold Cup (G3) and would make plenty of sense to appear on behalf of the Kingdom.

Early pacesetters and former Dubai Carnival/World Cup programme participants El Amarillista and Amor De Pobre kept an attentive pace before Fly Down moved to the lead with stablemate Sairoor with less than 600 metres to run.  The move, however, came much too soon, and leads to an entirely different discussion concerning European jockey bookings on a dirt course.  Fly Down, under Johnny Murtagh, was known as the type that prefers being ridden from well off the pace, but in this spot, he breaks fast, settles better than mid-division, and found himself in front much sooner than is his normal running syle.  Meanwhile, Kreem, under Roberto Perez, gets the trip more typical of Fly Down, circling horses wide around the far turn, angling into contention, and running down stablemate Fly Down to win by a neck, despite lugging-in through much of the extended drive.

DubaiRaceNight.com thanks Ali Dammas for posting video of the race to Youtube.  Fly Down races wearing saddle towel #6 and a black cap. Kreem has a blue saddletowel, racing as #3.  Leaving the backstretch, Kreem is 11th on the rail with a white cap.

’11-12 UAE season-to-date: 196 selections – 46 first, 35 second, 18 third (24% winners, 51% top three)

Fly Down, third in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) behind Blame and Zenyatta when with Nick Zito, and running into all sorts of trouble in the first turn of the 2011 Dubai World Cup (G1), is the anticipated favourite in the field of 18.  Johnny Murtagh will be in Riyadh to ride for trainer Baden Al Subaie.  Owned by King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz and sons, Fly Down emerged victorious over the same trip in the Crown Prince Cup (G2) on 6 January, winning by 5.5 lengths.  The second, third, fifth, sixth, eleventh, twelfth, fourteenth, and sixteenth finishers from that race all come back to run in this event.

The two that would draw the most interest are former Brian Meehan trainee Robust Wish, second in the Crown Prince Cup and third home, Step In Time.  The former was two from nine on all-weather in the UK before shipping to Saudi in late 2010, and will be ridden by Christophe Lemaire.  Meanwhile, the latter now races for Prince Faisal bin Khaled bin Abdulaziz, who finished third after suffering a wide trip from gate 18 in the Crown Prince Cup.  Step in Time is by Giant’s Causeway out of Cash Run, winner of the 1999 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and used to be with Mark Johnston in the UK.

In past years, the domestic edition of the King’s Cup has yielded some faster races, often leading to the questioning of the quality of the result from the imported race.  As such, the winner of the last two King’s Cups have not traveled to Dubai while some hard luck runners did make the trip, most recently being Amor De Pobre in the 2010 edition.

Muller (racing in Saudi as Alsaqr), has drawn post 17 for the imported King’s Cup, and was fourth in the 2009 Dubai World Cup, beaten nineteen lengths by Well Armed.  Paris Perfect, his stablemate, was third in the race, representing the best finishes for Saudi Arabia in the world’s richest race.  Most recently, Muller finished a distant 16th in the Crown Prince Cup as a newly-turned 9-year-old.

DubaiRaceNight.com will post video of the race when it is made available on YouTube via our Saudi contacts.

CLICK HERE for the Form Guide from the Emirates Racing Authority
CLICK HERE for the past performances (US-Style), courtesy AmWest Entertainment.

Race 1 – $120,000 Freehold Trophy Handicap (Rated 100-110)
1,600 metres – Tapeta

UPDATE – #6 KAVANGO was our top selection but is now a non-runner.

#2 DISA LEADER deserved to get a run, and now it seems a test to determine whether or not he gets over the Tapeta.  Running in this spot, at all, would be an indication he trains well enough.  He could be a Godolphin Mile (G2) runner if this turns out well, and given that deKock will have Bold Silvano in the Firebreak Stakes (G3) next week, going her makes more sense.

The same can be said for #3 ZANZAMAR, whom deKock identified as having had joint surgery after last year’s Carnival.  He did his best running here when fresh, having found trouble in both of his starts before a fourth in the UAE Derby.  This barn doesn’t have much else going tonight, so you think the winner could come from either chance.  Zanzamar’s history when fresh does go in his favour, and given the scratch to Kavango, has up put him on top.

#13 DANDY BOY has seemed a viable chance for the Godolphin Mile (G2) as his rating really isn’t likely to do enough to get into the Dubai Duty Free (G1).  Once again, knowing the toughness expected in the Firebreak could be why he goes in this spot.  He’s an all-weather winner at Dundalk but could just plod along again here.  A tough sell.

#14 RED GULCH could improve second up and has a history of a spotty record.  He’s drawn well for this trip and races closer to the pace, which could be the better spot to be, and is our main knock on Zanzamar.

#11 REEM gets back on the Tapeta and makes her third start off the layoff.  She ran credibly enough in the Cape Verde to make us believe she does have some good form in her, but is it going to be back on the Tapeta?  She was drawn wide last time when up the track against Barbecue Eddie, now getting a middle tier draw.  She’s shown pace before and it could keep her in the vanguard.  We’ll see.

Overall, this might be the toughest race of the Carnival to decipher and we’d wouldn’t be surprised with any result.  As such, take your pick.  We’ll readily admit we have little to offer in the way of a firm opinion.

1st –  #3 ZANZAMAR, 2nd - #2 DISA LEADER, 3rd – #13 DANDY BOY

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Race 2 – $100,000 Meydan Classic Trial sponsored by Xpress for 3-year-olds
1,400 metres – Turf

How do you go against #2 IP MAN in this spot?  Another win for Singapore seems likely in a race that, surprisingly, does not have any Godolphin interests.  He’s in form, drawn relatively well, has a smashing win over grass at Kranji, and likely to get a similar trip as last time, even if on the green.  He’ll be a heavy favourite.

We expect #3 NEED TO KNOW to improve vastly when on the grass, the gelded son out of a Group 1 winning mare, on grass.  He had quite a buzz about him on debut but was marooned in a wide stall and still ran on well, despite the fact the class of the race was significantly less than the one he faces today.  Improvement is likely.

#12 RIGHT TO DREAM deserves a chance to improve getting back on the grass.  His last dismal effort came when off a 5.5 month rest and over the Tapeta.  Now on the turf, his back experience could keep him in the mix, plus he gets blinkers for the first time.

#14 STRAIT OF ZANZIBAR is bred impeccably but was another that didn’t get over the Tapeta too well first up and gets a chance to give it another go on grass.

1^st – #2 IP MAN, 2^nd – #3 NEED TO KNOW, 3^rd – #12 RIGHT TO DREAM
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Race 3 – $250,000 UAE 2,000 Guineas (Listed), sponsored by Gulf News
1,600 metres – Tapeta

Let the record show that this race has had a way of producing some longshot winners, especially in recent editions save last year: 2008 – Cocoa Beach (over heavily-backed Godolphin charge Fiesta Lady), 2009 – So Shiny (over heavily-backed Godolphin charge Devotee), and 2010 – Siyaadah (over heavily-backed Raihana).  Last year’s win from Mahbooba was one of the rare instances of a favourite getting the job done.

Deservedly, that status goes to #6 GAMILATI once again.  She deserves the favouritism after defeating #2 ALSINDI on the up-and-up last time, when both presumably needed the run.  Both could go better in here over a truer pace, but especially for Gamilati, who was deemed likely to be done after this race, and prepared for classics back in the UK.

We saw #3 MOON SPUN get some work in on the Tapeta and the connections were plenty happy with what they saw.  She’s been happy with her surroundings and could be a welcome addition to the barn.  It’s tough to get creative in this spot.

1^st – #6 GAMILATI, 2^nd – #2 ALSINDI, 3^rd – #3 MOON SPUN
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Race 4 – $175,000 Classifieds Trophy Handicap (Rated 100+)
1,000 metres – Turf

#7 NOCTURNAL AFFAIR just missed catching Addictive Dream, who goes in the next race, on the opening night of the Carnival over this trip and course.  His performance was spot on and he stands to get a trip very similar to what he had last time.  David Marnane identified that all of his horses were likely to come on for the run, and this guy, along with Dandy Boy in the first, stand as significant chances.  It’s a tough, tough race, but he’ll be there in some form at the finish.

We’ve tipped #10 INTERNATIONALDEBUT the last two times he ran, and won’t fall into that trap again.  If he wins, our loss.  Presumably, both he and the mare, #11 INVINCIBLE ASH, are much better on grass, but it’s been tough getting them in front in the desert.

#2 IVER BRIDGE LAD get saddled with 60 kilos, but does get a break off that with the apprentice allowance going to Michael O’Connell.  He galloped out past Captain Obvious last time, which proved to us that he is in form and ready to do some damage.  His best performances come in spotty patches, but when he went Tapeta to turf here last season, he stepped up in a big way, second when getting plenty of weight from JJ The Jet Plane.  This guy will be heard from at some point, and it could be Friday.

#6 HUMIDOR deserves a shout after a decent run when slightly bothered at the start, and then significantly hampered when getting ready to let down last time out.  Humidor’s final 200 metres went in 11.62 seconds, according to Trakus, fastest in the field, and he had to swing totally across the back of horses late in running before getting clear to lay that run out.  He’s beaten Addictive Dream in the past, over this trip, so you know he has it in him.  He did that when third off a layoff last year at Goodwood, and goes second up here.  If you argue he needed that last race, he’s in with a chance here.  A narrow selection.

We’ll be shocked if #5 DAFEEF steps up off the layoff and wins.  He has good form, but over some longer trips, and it makes us somewhat skeptical of him in this spot.

1^st – #6 HUMIDOR, 2^nd – #7 NOCTURNAL AFFAIR, 3^rd – #2 IVER BRIDGE LAD

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Race 5 – $200,000 Al Shindagha Sprint (G3), sponsored by Gulf News
1,200 metres – Tapeta

UPDATE – #4 ADDICTIVE DREAM is a non-runner

Call us crazy, but after a certain point, you have to think the Singapore train stops, right?  We’ve been off it all year, until picking Ip Man to win the second race on Friday, and since we’ve missed the many spoils, and it has to stop at some point, we’re probably going to be on the wrong side of it in that race.  Oh well.

#2 ALO PURA must absolutely be worked for a better trip.  She was stifled in the last race won by #11 CAPTAIN OBVIOUS and still hung in gamely, beaten less than three lengths.  She’s still the record holder over the course which seems to be yielding faster final times than ever before.  To like her even more, she gets a race that is likely to have a significant pace to run at – #3 KRYPTON FACTOR, a winner last week, #4 ADDICTIVE DREAM (now a non-runner), and #6 MUJAAZEF are all likely to go forward, which should string this field over more ground, giving a greater chance to those running on from the rear.

Captain Obvious will live up to his billing here and absolutely deserves a shout from us in some respect.  The last race was good, and he got the jump on the rest in a jumbled scramble.  The fact that #9 HITCHENS was still running on in the end was a good thing, clocking the fastest final 400 metres last time in 22.86 seconds, according to Trakus.  You can view all the Trakus charts dating to the beginning of December at Meydan HERE.  The average closing 400-metre split from the last two seasons at Meydan, in 1200-metre races, is 23.63 seconds .  So, considering how well Hitchens got on over the course, and was flying at the end with the dawdling pace, makes us think he might be farther back, and still have a big kick in the tank, enough that 22.86 seconds would have easily slung him past the winner last time if he had been forced to go a faster pace then.

Picking just one horse here is brutally difficult, because we think all three in our top three are viable winning chances.  The timing numbers suggest Hitchens is in great form.  Let’s see if he can go one better.

1^st – #9 HITCHENS, 2^nd – #2 ALO PURA, 3^rd – #11 CAPTAIN OBVIOUS

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Race 6 – $150,000 Tabloid Trophy Handicap (Rated 95+)
2,810 metres – Turf

Here we get out first real shot at a prep for the Dubai Gold Cup (G3), the newest addition to the Dubai World Cup programme.

The pace is likely coming from #2 ELECTROLYSER and it looks like it will be his for as long as he can sustain it.  The portable rail is out 12 metres, which could help him extend away even more.  Winless since Ascot in September 2009, he’s kept top company over these extended trips, but with really limited success, and that makes him tough to back in here.

#1 FOX HUNT draws some immediate interest having been seventh in the 2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup (G1), only 2.5 lengths behind winner, and Dubai Sheema Classic possible, Dunaden.  He was a UK shipper that completed the first seven, and earned a major weight break on that occasion, plus was coming off a six week break where he was a winner in Germany.  Formerly with Mark Johnston, we know this guy loves these extended trips, a winner at Epsom and the Royal Ascot meeting before a second over this trip at York.  Back up in the weights and off the layoff, he has question marks.

#3 AVERROES has recency on his side with an easy win here over this trip on Tapeta on New Year’s Eve, and also was a Shergar Cup winner at Ascot in August.  He’s down in the weights for this second off a four month break, that also finds him at the height of the ratings in his career.  That last race was so easy, as everyone came home well-spaced, but the competition here is definitely tougher.

#4 HAPPY VALLEY was probably in need of the last race, and was reportedly in better form this year than last, but that certainly didn’t show last time.  Still, he stayed on well and wasn’t beaten a massive space.  He offers some minor placing interest as they try to find out if they have a Gold Cup horse here.

#12 TANFEETH was very impressive defeating Tahaamah in significantly lesser company last time and will find the waters much deeper.  That being said, he ran on so well from the back, and gets a four kilo break, that he becomes intriguing in this spot.

#11 MANJAKANI has slowly improved over time here in Dubai, with two very good finishes in recent Carnival starts.  He seems worthy of some placing interest.

In the end, it’s incredibly difficult to fault the form of Fox Hunt.  While he’s done quite a bit of traveling in the last few months, we think that if he can show a sliver of his top class company here, he’s the winner.

1^st – #1 FOX HUNT, 2^nd – #3 AVERROES, 3^rd – #2 ELECTROLYSER
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2011-2012 UAE season-to-date: 190 selections – 43 first, 35 second, 18 third (23% winners, 51% top three)

Bold Silvano, off since that win last February, is expected for the Firebreak Stakes (G3) over 1,600 metres, while Master of Hounds is the stable’s choice for the Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2), a race upgraded to Group 2 status this season, over 1,900 metres.  On the surface, both horses are considered Dubai World Cup chances, but will approach the race in different fashions.  In 2011, Bold Silvano was viewed as a likely lukewarm favourite for the race before suffering some nagging minor injuries after his Dubai debut win.

DeKock also reported that Boby Di Job, a recent private purchase from Uruguay, has joined the team in Dubai.  ”The intention is to run him in the UAE Derby,” said deKock.  Boby Di Job took two legs of the Uruguayan Triple Crown and is a winner of five from eight races.

While Musir’s exploits from last week, winning the Al Rashidiya (G2), have been well noted, deKock added more thoughts on Meydan handicap winner Mutahadee.  ”His performance was very pleasing as he hadn’t done much.  He looks top class.”  The Trakus data from Mutahadee’s win uncovered a final 200-metre timing in 10.54 seconds, the fastest winning final split in a turf route at Meydan in the last two seasons.

This week at Meydan, deKock starts the Mauritian champion Disa Leader and returning fourth in the UAE Derby Zanzamar in the first race of the night.  He also has Rerouted going in the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3), part-owned by top golfer Lee Westwood.  Through 21 starters this season, the deKock team has four wins and four placings.

“She almost had no right to win,” said trainer Mike de Kock.  ”I feel she was 90 percent today, I’m humbled by this performance.  It’s been a great performance.  I feel if she wasn’t here today, it wouldn’t have been the same.”

“We had to travel 18 hours to get down here.  These champions seem to get over it, lesser horses wouldn’t.  She didn’t have that early gate speed, but what she’s been through, locked up in quarantine from dawn until dusk, it hasn’t been easy. With the slow pace, I was expecting to see us in front. It probably shows she wasn’t at her best.  It’s not easy when you train horses like this, but fortunately, the people who own her, everyone has faith in the team, trust in the team.”

While she might not have been at her best, it makes the gutty late stretch heroics even more thrilling. De Kock indicates Igugu would stay in South Africa and aim for defence of her title in the Vodacom Durban July if she couldn’t get to Dubai for next year’s season.

Well, the Steven Burridge show continued when Dark Matter (below, left) scored his second win of the Carnival as many tries, taking a 1,400 metres turf event, defeating the highly regarded Albaasil and earlier Carnival winner Time Prisoner.

The team has indicated that Dark Matter will now be aimed at the UAE 2,000 Guineas over a mile as the campaign lumbers on, but this win, against multiple older winners, was very impressive, even in light of its narrow margin.

Godolphin’s Sarrsar and stablemate Capponi (below, right) dueled in an epic finish, where the former forged to the front and idled ever-so-slightly, allowing Capponi to surge back when the result seemed determined.  The win was the a reversal from the first race of the 2012 Carnival when Sarrsar went by, taking full advantage of a weight break.  On the level, these two did the handicapper proud.   Before the race, in an interview with Dubai Racing Channel, trainer Saeed bin Suroor indicated his hopes to get Sarrsar into stakes company soon enough.

TRAKUS AND DEKOCK WINNERS

It’s worth revisiting a nugget of data from last week’s racing at Meydan.  Courtesy of the Trakus timings, Mike de Kock trainee Mutahadee absolutely bolted home when winning a race over 1,800 metres on grass.  His individual sectional timings for the race are as follows:

400m – 27.73
800m – 52.35 (24.62)
1200m – 1:16.97 (24.62)
1600m – 1:39.45 (22.48)
1800m – 1:49.99  (10.54)

Yes, that’s right, Mutahadee finished his final 200-metre segment in a lightning 10.54 seconds when winning over stablemate Viscount Nelson, who came home in 10.67 seconds.  Both are absolutely stellar performances, especially if you considered them in light of the final sectionals for this week’s Al Rashidiya (G2).  Musir’s final 200-metre split went in 11.43 seconds over the same going but with a significantly slower pace at the 1,800 metres distance.

TREBLE JIG ON THE CLIMB

Both literally and figuratively, Treble Jig (pictured below) continues the climb up the rankings after three incredibly impressive wins in the UAE this season.  The son of Gone West landed his second consecutive stakes race of the campaign after taking Friday’s Jebel Ali Mile (Listed).  Under Wayne Smith again, he raced with prominence and held sway coming up the hill at Jebel Ali, where he had scored a rousing 10-length tally in the Jebel Ali Stakes (Listed) two weeks ago.  The plan is to find more races over ground at Meydan, with an aim for Dubai World Cup night.  Read more about Treble Jig from Gulf News.

Kilt Rock’s streak of wins ended at four when he may have hit the lead too soon and lifted, allowing the late running Kanaf, ironically ridden by Tadhg O’Shea, to come and catch him.  The final time for the race was, by far, the fastest 1,200 metres of the season at Jebel Ali, and should set both horses up well for the Jebel Ali Sprint (Listed) later in the season.