RACE 6 – $5,000,000 Dubai Duty Free (G1), sponsored by Dubai Duty Free – 1,800 meters, turf
TOP CONTENDERS
#15 PRESVIS is the pick in here despite a rotating spot on top of him. That seems more a result of jockey contracts than anything, as Ryan Moore is engaged for Sir Michael Stoute. It leaves this top pick in the capable hands of Christophe Lemaire. While Moore has gotten the most out of Presvis, he is incredibly consistent, and comes in with the best local prep of all, winning in style when taking the Jebel Hatta (G2). We are riding on the fact that he is still the best horse in the race, regardless of which top international rider is on him.
#11 ALEXANDROS may have run his best race in the Al Rashidiya (G3) in the first turf race of the season at Meydan, powerhousing away from the field. His third here last year, behind Gladiatorus and Presvis, was solid. Making the all-important third start off the layoff, he could move back to his best, or regress further. Tough call.
#8 BANKABLE was tooth and nail with IMBONGI over the 1,600 meters of the Al Fahidi Fort (G2), a race result franked when Imbongi came back to win the Zabeel Mile (G2) on closing night. In the end, I just think Imbongi is a horse better over shorter trips, whereas Bankable fits this race right well. He will be in the mix.
#2 GOOD BA BA gives Hong Kong their best chance since Vengeance of Rain took the Dubai Duty Free in 2007. The winner of the prestigious Hong Kong Mile (G1),
NOT WITHOUT A CHANCE
#12 CONFRONT attempts to become another European shipper to win first off the plane without recent form. This is a move that just has failed in the recipe for success to win this race most recently.
#1 IMBONGI was all out to beat Kalahari Gold last time and held sway long enough to take the prize. Over another 200 meters, his success is in greater question.
#5 COURAGEOUS CAT ran a monster race at Gulfstream Park last time and was due to come to Dubai as a package deal with Life Is Sweet in the Dubai World Cup. She’s out, and he is still in. A strong placing behind Goldikova in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Mile gives this guy some hope, but he will have to find a bit more to get that win over top international company that others hold over him.
#4 IBN BATTUTA has been nothing but game and is a fast-improver, just missing behind Bankable and Imbongi in the Al Fahidi Fort, and running another good one in the Jebel Hatta. His form screams to me as a longshot who could get a surprising slice of the pie.
LONGSHOTS
#10 TAKE THE POINTS has been the beneficiary of so many perfect setups, weaker fields, and good trips, it makes you wonder if he really is a decent horse – the record says so, the visuals and anaylsis behind the record tell a different story. He’ll beat me.
#14 SNAFFY showed a flash of brilliance on the grass this year when winning over a mile in his first start since a lackluster seventh in the 2009 Dubai World Cup. The competition is once again at its peak; which often signifies Snaffy isn’t a main contender
#3 JUSTENUFFHUMOR has been one of those Godolphin runners just not the same outside of the US. While permissive race-day medication pervades American racing, and he raced on it there, his form of local starts discourage a choice amongst the top finishers.
While #13 LAHALEEB is a longshot, her trainer has just missed with Purple Sage on several occasions here this season. She was completely ignored in Canada last year when landing her signature win, which led to her sale. Now, new connections debut her on a big stage. If she had a better prep race, we’d be more encouraged. Still, she could improve a bit off her last.
#7 AL SHEMALI shocked when winning a handicap here earlier in the Carnival and seemingly fills a place in the gate.
#9 THE USUAL Q.T. bled badly through the approved bleeder medication Lasix last time in the U.S. And now he is running in the toughest race of his life without said medication, 10,000 miles from home. No.
FINAL DUBAI DUTY FREE ANALYSIS
PRESVIS has been the horse to beat in this race all season long, and while we remain tentative, hoping he gets a good ride, he is the pick.
1st – #15 PRESVIS, 2nd – #8 BANKABLE, 3rd – #2 GOOD BA BA – 4th – #4 IBN BATTUTA
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RACE 5 – $2,000,000 Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), sponsored by Gulf News – 1,200 meters, Tapeta
TOP CONTENDERS
While getting specific details from Godolphin about their prospects and planning can be difficult, I tend to believe that #8 GAYEGO was rested after his Al Shindagha Sprint (G3) second so as to keep him fully fit for a big second-up effort in this spot. Last year, Gayego returned at Saratoga and had a workmanlike win over a rather lackluster field, following his second in the 2009 Godolphin Mile (G2). He followed that with a brillant performance in the Ancient Title Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, where he beat Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) placer Crown of Thorns, and then failed to get the bob in the Sprint, a race in which four horses settled across the wire. This, to me, is Godolphin’s best chance of the night – granted, they have many chances (probably 20 when all is said and done)- but Gayego is best.
#6 ROCKET MAN is as quirky as the day is long and how he performs under the lights could offer some pause. It is believed his injury from last year was a result of jumping lights at the finish in Singapore. Still, he is a fast horse that finds top company once again. A dud of a race would be a surprise – so expect something close to his best, even keeping in mind that other prizes loom, in the near future.
#7 KINSALE KING has gone to the front and not yielded in California, emerging as one of the leaders in a depleted American sprint division. What you have to like about his handling is that this guy has been training over the Tapeta at one of the two American tracks to offer it, Golden Gate Fields, recording two published works over that surface. While you may not understand the culture of morning trackwork in California, take my word for it – enormous effort is given to tracking the works, how horses behave, the times, and how hard horses are driven. The vast majority of workouts are rated “handily,” meaning the rider pushed the horse for some effort, while VERY few are given the title “breezing,” indicating an easy, effortless work. Well, on March 15, Kinsale King was one of two horses rated as “breezing” over 600 meters of trackwork and record the fourth-fastest of 26 horses over that trip. This is a nuanced argument, but one to suggest he could be sitting on another big race where he gets brave out front. He will be joined by Laurel Guerreiro on the lead.
LOCAL PREPPERS WITH HOPE
Why did #5 FORCE FREEZE show so little last time out? His win off the bench two back was encouraging but he failed to pick up the running in the Mahab Al Shimaal and might have regressed. Still, this race is the important third race in his form cycle and he could manage a slice of the pie.
#10 MUTHEEB has had four quality starts at Meydan, but just one win. He regressed a bit following that win with seconds behind Desert Party and Sirocco Breeze. Expecting him to be best today might be asking too much.
WHY HERE AND NOT ON THE TURF? – CAN THEY DO SOMETHING FOR THE FIRST TIME THAT WE KNOW THE ABOVE FIVE HORSES CAN, AND DO WELL?
#1 ONE WORLD was just super in the Hong Kong Sprint but shifts to Tapeta here and while a placing behind Sacred Kingdom is nothing to slouch, expecting an effort good enough to win is asking too much. He can grab a slice of the pie.
#4 LAUREL GUERREIRO, despite looking good in the morning at Meydan, just rarely sustains that front-running speed for long enough, and Kinsale King is likely faster and could through him off his game when the Shane Ryan sends them on their way. He is pace insurance, but only to help Gayego run them all down.
Both #3 BENBAUN and #2 EAGLE FALLS could have gone for $1 million on turf, where their form is most proven, or try for more. At least they have field sizes that are more manageable here. As for Benbaun, he is a gallant warrior who just has too many question marks. Meanwhile, Eagle Falls seems a new horse most recently. How will he handle the changes and the late ship?
#9 REGAL PARADE, the shock winner of the Haydock Sprint Cup (G1) has seemed dull in the morning and must handle the layoff and the much warmer conditions. This is a tough call first up.
FINAL DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN ANALYSIS
I firmly believe Godolphin skipping the Mahab Al Shimaal with Gayego was his great ability to run second up. He ran a great one when closing into the bias at Nad Al Sheba last year in the Godolphin Mile and presuming a clean trip, is the likeliest Godolphin winner on the night.
1st – #8 GAYEGO, 2nd – #6 ROCKET MAN, 3rd – #1 ONE WORLD, 4th – #7 KINSALE KING