Race 1 – $55,000 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 (G1) for purebred Arabians, 2,000 meters, Tapeta
#9 NO RISK AL MAURY leaves us no choice but to put him up top. His performance on opening night was a strong, easy win, and another similar performance could leave us a monumental showdown of top Arabians in the Kahayla Classic to kick off the World Cup card. The pick. #10 KANDAR DU FALGAS was not completely overwhelmed in his fourth on opening night and stands to come on for that run. #8 VITE ROYALE goes close and adds a visor for this event; his rash of placings could continue here. It is worth noting that #6 RABAH DE CARRERE ran incredibly well in his only lifetime start over all-weather.
1st – #9 NO RISK AL MAURY, 2nd – #10 KANDAR DU FALGAS, 3rd – #8 VITE ROYALE
_______________________________________________________________________________
Race 2 – $250,000 Bahri Al Bastakiya (Listed), 1,900 meters, Tapeta
Any way you look at it, Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum has had a magnificent Carnival, landing the UAE Oaks and UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) with homebred offspring from Redoute’s Choice. Sadly, his #1 MUSIR was declared a non-runner late Tuesday and his quest to become the second UAE Triple Crown is foiled. So where do we go from here?
The popular choice in most of the international wagering is likely to center on #8 VALE OF YORK, the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champion. That win came from nowhere, frankly, and had runner-up Lookin At Lucky not endured such a monumentally wide trip, chances are we wouldn’t have seen Ahmed Ajtebi in the winner’s circle that day. Given what Godolphin has said about this son of Invisible Spirit, I tend to think his chance to win is a small one, even with the Musir scratch. Don’t take a short price if you don’t have to…I won’t.
I’m siding with #4 DELLA BARBA. Assistant trainer Stephane Chevalier was very positive about the chances of this colt by Della Francesca and his third behind Musir in the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3), his first start in almost seven months, was a very decent performance. He stands to come on for that run with a win over the track and the breeding suggests he can get this longer trip, a 300 meter jump over his previous long. Della Francesca was a winner over 2,000 meters in the UK and we could see Della Barba improving Thursday.
#13 UNCLE TOM was really closing on #14 MENDIP last time out. Both ran great races, but I thought Uncle Tom was the real eye-catcher out of the race. Mendip has every reason to improve off that last effort and the breeding is there to suggest he can handle the trip. Uncle Tom is likely to be a bit of a price and could pull off a mild upset with the win, that we consider quite possible.
1st – #4 DELLA BARBA, 2nd – #13 UNCLE TOM, 3rd – #14 MENDIP
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Race 3 – $200,000 Elnadim Mahab Al Shimaal (G3), 1,200 meters, Tapeta
It is worth noting that the 2009 winner of this race, Gayego, skips an appearance here in what might be a lesson learned for Godolphin. His run second off the layoff late in 2009, winning the Ancient Title at Santa Anita, was so big that Saeed bin Suroor and Team Blue might think it best to leave him in the barn with the big race on the horizon. I have heard nothing otherwise to indicate an injury. Now, on to those who are here…
#2 DESERT PARTY will go sprinting in his first start since sustaining an injury in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1). He was a top pick of mine that day and caught an awful trip where he was jostled about quite a bit. The problem? This trip seems too short for him and I would be impressed as anything if he came out guns ablaze with a big effort. I just doubt we see the best from him in this spot. Fourth.
#7 WAR ARTIST ran the fastest 1,200 meters of the Carnival so far and gapped the field well turning for home with a burst from in between runners. He is saddled with an added 3.5 kilos for this run, which could prove some added challenge. There is little one can do to avoid comparing his win to that of #10 FORCE FREEZE, whose second over Star Crowned was later franked when he came back to win last week. The former was more visually impressive than the latter, and the times don’t lie.
#3 BARBECUE EDDIE struggled to repeat his form from early in the Carnival after breaking slow, absolutely killing his chances. Willie Supple rushed him up to the lead and forced him on, leading to the eventual backpedaling we saw. He totes an added 5.5 kilos on Thursday and faces some tougher company.
#12 MUTHEEB had a troubled trip three back and followed up with a win by a handy five over Stoic. He too was no matche for Sirocco Breeze when second on February 18 and makes his fourth start of the Carnival. If anything, the breeding on this colt suggests he would prefer a longer trip, not a shorter one. As for #4 PRINCE SHAUN, is there anything wrong with thinking he can’t run back to a decent placing he did before? Leahurst is pointed to the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), and this gelding scoped dirty earlier in the season. With the hot pace likely, he could come sporting from the back. I think a placing chance also needs to be given to #1 PALAZZONE whose third over 1,400 meters in February 11 was a game run. The 200 meters drop should benefit him as well.
1st – #7 WAR ARTIST, 2nd – #3 BARBECUE EDDIE, 3rd – #4 PRINCE SHAUN
_______________________________________________________________________________
Race 4 – $200,000 Alhaarth Burj Nahaar (G3), 1,600 meters, Tapeta
This Godolphin Mile (G2) prep gives us a host of solid Carnival performers, including handy winners #6 SKYSURFERS and #7 CALMING INFLUENCE, both for the home teamers. Skysurfers has been handled with gentle care, not debuting until late in his 3-year-old season and blasted a strong field two weeks ago over the same trip. He actually gets a slight weight break here and has been quoted in some pools for the Dubai World Cup (G1). While you cannot doubt the running lines, I’m leary of the price, and the ability to bounce back so fast after taking so long to get to the races.
My pick here is #5 FORGOTTEN VOICE, who flashed home in the Maktoum Challenge R1 (G3) on opening night. His move was the most eye-catching from that race and I really thought he stamped himself a World Cup contender. Jeremy Noseda is taking the cautious approach with the son of Danehill Dancer, who was unbeaten on the all-weather before that strong second to Gloria De Campeao. His Maktoum Challenge run was somewhat troubled with traffic and he made up about ten to twelve lengths on the leaders after being the last horse to turn for home. Ryan Moore has to be confident getting back aboard and it is worth noting that Midshipman, fourth that day, came back to win handy last week, while the third home, Consul General, confirmed that effort with another third behind Skysurfers.
#12 SONEVA is a filly against the boys in this spot and was game as could be winning the Cape Verde (G3) on February 5. Second home that day, Aspectoflove, came back to run another strong race in the Balanchine (G3) last week. The breeding lines on Soneva indicate she should not be frightful of a race away from the grass.
It is also tough to ignore #9 GREEN COAST, a winner two weeks ago over a seven furlong trip here. We’ve talked much about him in our analysis before, he is a consistent type who loves getting in the frame. The stakes go up today.
The eleventh placing for #10 DON RENATO, who had been 18-for-22 in the placings prior to his Meydan debut, was uninspiring. Perhaps he doesn’t like the surface or maybe something just went wrong. We can give him another shot to grab a piece of the pie before falling off the bandwagon.
1st – #5 FORGOTTEN VOICE, 2nd – #12 SONEVA, 3rd – 6 SKYSURFERS
_______________________________________________________________________________
Race 5 - $250,000 Marju Dubai City of Gold (G2), 2,485 meters, turf
Could this race have a few more question marks? Does #9 PAN RIVER re-confirm his form, franked a week ago when Lucky Find was a handy winner over Tapeta? Will #12 QUIJANO finally win another race that isn’t held at Milan? He is the back-to-back winner of a stakes race there but started his career 10-for-11 and is 4-for-21 since, with the two Milan wins and two in his native Germany. He’s almost always close and tough to throw out…he looks for his first Carnival win since 2007, when he won this very race.
Does #5 HALICARNASSUS keep thriving? His second over Tapeta was encouraging, his win over Mourilyan was downright impressive, making all the running and holding sway over this trip. You never know when this entire wants to keep staying!
Will #6 PURPLE MOON prep again with a decent performance with eyes on a bigger prize? Fourth beaten more than two last year in this event, the son of Galileo came back to a devastating third in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) and has been off ever since for Luca Cumani. The layoff is the primary concern, but you know Luca will have him as fit as possible. #14 KING OF ROME gets back on turf after four local efforts that have some quality behind them.
And then we have the classy #2 CAMPANOLOGIST, winner over Bankable at Windsor last year and the keeper of some solid company. How does he take off the shelf? He will run forward with Halicarnassus and holds that awesome class line when he bested Conduit back in 2008.
Find me the dart board, I’m stumped. Let’s go with #6 Purple Moon. Pan River was asked for a ton of run last time and while he was actually in front of two next out winners, the overall field quality just wasn’t the same as today. Pick an angle – you can apply to just about anyone here.
1st – #6 PURPLE MOON, 2nd – #12 QUIJANO, 3rd – #2 CAMPANOLOGIST
_______________________________________________________________________________
Race 6 – $300,000 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 (G2), 2,000 meters, Tapeta
The great race mare #8 VODKA makes her lifetime debut away from the turf and stands to use this as a prep for the Dubai World Cup (G1), if things go well, or a leg-stretcher for the Dubai Duty Free (g1) if things do not. She is a real firecracker, winning ten of 25 lifetime starts, but if you think I have enough sure-footed confidence to put her on top – you are crazy. I absolutely must see one from her before judging.
Godolphin unveils #11 CAVALRYMAN, a solid third in the Prix d’la Arc de Triomphe, just two lengths behind Sea The Stars, and was incredibly impressive to have stayed on throughout the running. A son of Halling, a winner of two legs of the Maktoum Challenge from years past, you should think that Cavalryman can get over the Tapeta, training in Dubai this winter.
#5 GLORIA DE CAMPEAO, winner of the first leg of this event on opening night, goes second off the shelf and has been doing some of the best running of his career in the last year. If that January race were 100 meters more, he is a loser. Can he win with the same trip over 2,000 meters today? I don’t think so.
I have long-argued that #14 JOE LOUIS was best around 2,000 meters, and he showed that when winning over the trip in Saudi three starts back, last November. He was our narrow pick over Well Armed in the 2009 Dubai World Cup, and well, you know how that turned out. Can he get over the Tapeta? We’ll see. Again – this is about recency. Ignore the last start when Wind Flow pulled a monument King’s Cup upset after a ridiculous pace-duel compromised the normal run of the race. He could challenge for a spot.
#2 ALLYBAR pops up in the rankings five pounds while #1 LIZARD’S DESIRE is up eight, both dual-Carnival winners over the distance. Their recency edge, to be, puts them on top in this event. While other horses outclass them on past form, you cannot knock the recent ability they have shown to get over this course. How well Allybar does after a significant exertion last time is a bit of a question, but that win over well-backed Crowded House was a stong one. I think both could run big ones again, and to a different degree, will be surprised if either of these DO NOT run a decent race.
1st – #2 ALLYBAR, 2nd – #1 LIZARD’S DESIRE , 3rd – #14 JOE LOUIS
_______________________________________________________________________________
Race 7 – $250,000 Haatel Jebel Hatta (G2), 1,800 meters, Turf
This is a fitting way to end Super Thursday with one of the best fields of the Carnival. I don’t think we can argue that #1 PRESVIS is back in the right spot. It is just a REALLY tough spot. The reuniting with Ryan Moore is a positive change and the return to turf a good sign as well. He is appropriately top-rated along with #8 JUSTENUFFHUMOR, who should be off a few pegs in my mind.
#3 ALEXANDROS was spot-on in his Al Rashidiya (G3) victory over Crowded House, just powering away from the field. He runs forward whereas Presvis often flashes from the tail. He will be the one catch, in my eye. #6 IBN BATTUTA was gallant in defeat in the Al Fahidi Fort (G2) but it has been a long season and with the waters even deeper here, another placing might be the limit. #7 ZIRCONEUM was our pick, twice this Carnival. She didn’t have much excuse last time when Deem won but she just keeps looking more and more like Jay Peg to me, who labored with decent runs in the Carnival and exploded on World Cup night, winning the Dubai Duty Free (G1) in course record time.
#5 LAHALEEB was a monstrous longshot winner at Woodbine and sold after that. She would seem to be facing a tough task. In the end, the powerful stride of Alexandros leans me in his direction.
1st – #3 ALEXANDROS, 2nd – #1 PRESVIS, 3rd – #7 ZIRCONEUM