ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates – Seven months ago, Italian jockey Mirco Demuro landed a massive, emotional career tally when taking the $10 million Dubai World Cup with Japanese entrant Victoire Pisa. Just days removed from the tsunami that ravaged the Japan’s northeastern shores, and the psyche of millions more, Demuro’s underrated, but masterful ride topped a Japanese quinella on one of racing’s brightest stages.

“Personally, it was huge,” Demuro said from the quaint grandstand at Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club on Sunday.  ”Just overwhelming.”

Victoire Pisa came to the 2011 Dubai World Cup riding consecutive wins in the Arima Kinen (G1), Japan’s all-star year-ending race, and the Nakayama Kinen (G1).  When winning the Arima Kinen, Victoire Pisa settled fourth in the 2,500-metre race, but was pulled off the rail and asked to move forward with 1,100 metres to run.

“He’s one of those horses you have to keep after, reminding him what’s going on.”

Normally placed towards the first half of the field, the son of Neo Universe slammed the gate on jumping in the World Cup and was an immediate last in the field of 14.  Fellow Japanese raider Transcend, ridden by Shinji Fujita, took his normal position on the lead and slowed the pace as much as possible.

“I knew they were going slow, so I had to pull out and make a move.”

Demuro caught 12 top jockeys sleeping behind the slowest 2000-metre pace in the history of Meydan, and catapulted from 14th to first in 400-metres.

“There aren’t many horses I’ve experienced that with,” and none Demuro could actually remember, “but he was one who could definitely handle that move.”

The Trakus timings for the race recorded Victoire Pisa’s cumulative time after 600 metres at 41.43 seconds and positioned 14th of 14.  After the first 1,000 metres, he was 1st of 14 having run 1:06.42, a 400-metre split of 24.99 seconds.  And with that, the Dubai World Cup was won with a gutsy move by a steady jockey.   Watch the replay of the race below.

Form from the Dubai World Cup was franked repeatedly throughout the year when fourth home Cape Blanco won three Grade 1 events in America, fifth Gio Ponti took one, sixth Gitano Hernando won the Singapore International Cup (G1) in his next start, seventh Musir scored in the Topkapi Trophy (G2), and eighth Buena Vista won the Japan Cup (G1).  Unfortunately, nagging injuries kept Victoire Pisa off the course until November, did not find his form in two starts, and was retired a week ago.

A seven-race New Year’s meeting at Abu Dhabi saw Demuro’s first race in the UAE since the $10 million win, an AED80,000 (US$21,783) handicap for purebred Arabians over 2,200 metres on the firm course. Riding Forgehill Cezanne, the soft-touch of Demuro guided the 6-year-old to the front past the post the first time around and set a temperate gallop in a race lacking much pace.

When favoured Takaamul was hung wide around the turn, Demuro backed the tempo to a crawl going down the back, forcing Richard Hills to potentially commit his mount for home too soon.  The two battled nip and tuck for the length of the 400-metre stretch, yielding a ridiculously-tight photograph. Results from the photo took, seemingly, ten minutes while the local crowd hooted with each slow-motion replay before Takaamul was declared the winner by the slimmest of discernable margins.

For $10 million or $21,000, Demuro gives his all.

“I’m taking a risk being here, but hope they see my work and like it.”

“I rode three months for Prince Faisal bin Abdulaziz in Saudi Arabia when I was 17…and wow,” Demuro recalled from some 20-years ago, eyes wide signifying the impact of the experience.  ”It was something else.”

“I’ve loved my time in America, too, riding in California about a decade ago for Bobby Frankel and Richard Mandella, who took me into his home and treated me like a son.”

“We got to be pretty good friends,” Mandella said in a March 2011 story for the Daily Racing Form. “He was the greatest kid. He was very athletic and good on a horse. I hated to see him leave when he did.”

After spending several months a year in Japan and his native Italy, Demuro is back on the Arabian peninsula and intends a full three-month stay for the Dubai World Cup Carnival, which begins Thursday. Demuro was named one of the twelve jockeys in this year’s two-day Meydan Masters, a competition amongst the winning riders from a sample of top international races. One of the Meydan Masters races takes place Thursday with three more on Friday.

“I’m not riding on contract with any stable, just trying to piece together some rides.”  Demuro mentioned potential business coming from Marco Botti, Luca Cumani, and Ernst Oertel, specifically for horses that might not already be spoken-for through previous commitments.  ”I just hope people are willing to give the winner of the Dubai World Cup a chance.”

Contact Pat Cummings – pat @ dubairacenight.com

Photos above courtesy EERC/Cedric Lane.  Purchase these and others of UAE racing from Cedric – email UAERacingPics @ gmail.com.

Average
400m – 26.58
800m – 51.05
1200m – 1:15.63
1600m – 1:40.71
2000m – 2:04.64

2011 Dubai World Cup
400m – 26.78 (+0.20)
800m – 53.18 (+2.13)
1200m – 1:18.29 (+2.66)
1600m – 1:42.62 (+1.91)
2000m – 2:05.94 (+1.30)

Every single sectional split set by the leader at points of call in the 2011 Dubai World Cup was the slowest of the season at Meydan, and that includes non-Carnival races run over the 2,000 metres distance.  Almost never do you see a horse bolt from last to first in the manner of 400 metres, but that was the move that Italian jockey Mirco Demuro made while leaving the first turn and beginning the run down the back.  It was bold, it caught the eye, and it seemingly caught the rest of the field napping – and it was all on camera.  There is no exaggeration or hyperbole to proclaim that Demuro’s ride was absolutely one of the best “big-race” rides in the history of racing.

Adding to Demuro’s credit, there was no noticeable change in the Tapeta over the course of the day.  Both the Godolphin Mile (G2) and Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) leaders’ sectional times were all within the range of the average for races run over the course of the season, both trending slightly faster.  While it is without doubt that Demuro rode Victoire Pisa aggressively down the backstretch, he did it well within reason.  The average timing between the 800m and 1200m call for the leader in a 2,000-metre race at Meydan is 24.15 seconds – Demuro sent his mount through the same space in 23.92 seconds. Presumably, Shinji Fujita deserves some credit for a masterful ride on Transcend, attempting to lead the field through dawdling fractions in his mount’s typical front-running style.  But it was Demuro, the only jockey to sense the absolute crawl and its likely negative impact on his mount, to adjust on the fly, and it yielded an emotional and legendary win.  This was truly one of the best rides in the history of the sport, and offered Demuro and his Japanese employers a massive payoff.

Watch Demuro’s brilliant ride in the 2011 Dubai World Cup below

Horses have just more than a furlong, or over 200 metres, to the first turn over the Tapeta at Meydan.

Read the full article HERE.

The lack of account for Cecil’s remarks is striking.  First, Twice Over won the prep for the Dubai World Cup, the Maktoum Challenge – R3 (G2), breaking from post 13, over the same 2,000 metres trip of the big race.  In 16 races at the 2011 Carnival run over the Tapeta, and at two turns (distances of 1900, 2000, and 2200 metres), the average winning post was 7.5.  Six of the 16 two-turn Tapeta races were won by horses breaking from gates 10 or higher, and 25 percent of the total – 4 out of 16 – were won by horses breaking from gates 13 or 14, which includes Twice Over’s win.  One could go so far as to say that Cecil’s logic about post position impacting race results is not just off base, but entirely wrong and unproven by the fact of the race results.

At the 2010 Dubai Carnival, the first over the Tapeta at Meydan, 22 two-turn races were contested.  The average winning post in those races was 6.2, with four of the 22 races being won by horses starting at posts 11 or higher.   Two of those wide drawn winners came on Super Thursday, the main prep day for the 2010 Dubai World Cup when Mendip won the Al Bastakiya from gate 14 over 1,900 metres and Red Desire won from gate 13 over 2,000 metres in the Maktoum Challenge – R3.  That was the first of two consecutive years where the winner of the 2,000-metre Maktoum Challenge was victorious from gate 13.

An opinion is one thing, but the facts about barrier draws at Meydan suggest that Cecil’s opinion is unsupported.

Wide draws can win – Twice Over, trained by Sir Henry Cecil, wins the 2011 Maktoum Challenge from post 13 – VIDEO BELOW.

1.  Mirco Demuro stole the big race.  A simple, brilliant move.  Running into a snailish pace, Demuro made a more dramatic, but similar move, to the win in the Arima Kinen.  Shinji Fujita nearly pulled a Tiago Pereira and made all the running, but a 23.90 third 400-metres of the Dubai World Cup, going from last to first, made the difference and propelled Demuro’s mount to the win.

2.  Khawlah made the most meaningful move of the day in a true off-the-pace fashion, nixing a fabulous run from Master Of Hounds in the UAE Derby, showing the overwhelming value of the sex and geographic weight break the filly earned.  It was also the start of a great night for Mickael Barzalona who should be here to stay with this win, plus a third in the Dubai World Cup, even though he may have been scarily premature in his winning celebration. 

3.  It was heartening to the see the win from Rocket Man in the Dubai Golden Shaheen.  Singapore is on the move as a racing jurisdiction, quite possibly the most progressive of any out there, and the entire Singapore Turf Club management team was there to celebrate the win with the South African owner-trainer-combo.  Had Kinsale King be in the race, the result might have been different, but in that race, on that day, Rocket Man earned the biggest international success for the small island nation.    Better Be The One ran a cracker in the Al Quoz to add more credibility to the Singaporean-based stock.

4.  We had backed Mufarrh after week-long analysis of the Godolphin Mile and some incredibly bullish comments from Ali Al Raihe, but in the end, he hit the front just too soon and was tracked down by Skysurfers, avenging his third in the race a year earlier, kick-starting a great night for Godolphin.

5.  It has been well-documented since, but how crazy to think that the same dam that produced Dar Re Mi to win an off-the-layoff Dubai Sheema Classic would do it again in 2011 with Rewilding.  Godolphin gets props for keeping him under the radar.  While the class horse in the race, there was no buzz from them all winter about the horse and his massive first up run was impressive.

6.  We said Presvis would have to prove to us that he could win.  And he did.  In the most perfect setup of the night, the expected pace duel developed and Presvis caught the right gap at the right time, denying River Jetez a solid win.  He is certainly deserving of the win, but it finally showed this guy can put more than two solid races together.  The week surely proved that he is a quirky horse, having witnessed his ever-unique training regimen in the morning. 

7.  Calvados Blues ran a huge third in the Dubai Sheema Classic and Ahmed Ajtebi gets a four day suspension for careless riding where his mount laid in on Deem, forcing a massive check from Olivier Peslier.  How does Ajtebi get the days, but the stewards seemingly never looked as his finish in third to see if it hurt the finishing position of others in the race?

8.  The overwhelming emotion in support of the Japanese win in the world’s richest race is surely a banner moment for the race that will not be forgotten from those who were in attendance.

9.  Best performances by non-placers: Laaheb (4th – Dubai Sheema Classic), Victor’s Cry (5th - Dubai Duty Free), Invincible Ash (4th - Al Quoz Sprint), Cape Blanco (4th – Dubai World Cup).

10.  Most disappointing performances: Mr Gruff (16th – Al Quoz Sprint), I Want Revenge (10th – Godolphin Mile), Utley (11th – UAE Derby), Dynamic Blitz (8th – Dubai Golden Shaheen), Dangerous Midge (14th – Dubai Sheema Classic). 

Plenty more to come in the off-season here at DubaiRaceNight.com, following and tracking the runners from the Dubai World Cup and Dubai International Racing Carnival as the year progresses, plus selected analysis on big race days.  Stay tuned!

1.  TWICE OVER (Rated 125) – DRN line 7-2; Coral line 5-2

Impressive winner of the Maktoum Challenge doing the right thing getting a race over the course.  Final time, however, was the slowest 2,000 metres of the Carnival over a track that wasn’t playing particularly slow.  We are a bit concerned that they got more out of him in this race as opposed to leaving some in the tank.  Bold Silvano ran three seconds faster over the Tapeta.

2.  BOLD SILVANO (Rated 120) – DRN line 9-2; Coral line 5-1

Might appear this week in a handicap if DeKock wants a leg-stretcher, but his second round of the Maktoum Challenge was just spot-on.  Gitano Hernando was more than four lengths behind him when they both ran first-up, and 2.75 lengths behind Twice Over last week.  Despite missing a few days, if DeKock says he’s ready to go, believe him.  Where Soumillon lands a big sign.

3.  MUSIR (Rated 117) – DRN line 6-1; Coral line 10-1

Considering he was being prepared for the Burj Nahaar until a day before entries, then promoted to go 1,900 metres, his race was far from a disgrace second behind Twice Over.  DeKock wants him peaking on the big night, and we think that you will see that.

4.  GOLDEN SWORD (Rated 117) – DRN line 7-1; Coral line 16-1

As of today, the DubaiRaceNight.com Dubai World Cup selection if he runs.  If his style and form going into the Dubai World Cup, should he be entered, does NOT remind you of Lizard’s Desire last year, we don’t know what would.  Second over 1,600, a trip too short for him, he has dazzled in two fast handicaps over 1,900 and 2,000, the latter being a course record.  Given the balance with which the Tapeta has run this season, it is difficult to argue that he is the fastest horse amongst this lot over the Dubai World Cup trip, right now.  Anything over 10-1 is a dramatic overlay to us.  Who rides?

5.  GITANO HERNANDO (Rated 118) – DRN line 8-1, Coral line 12-1

Progressive form should impress trainer Marco Botti.  He has never been campaigned to have two legitimate preps in advance of a specific target race, and he improved with a better run in the Maktoum Challenge under John Murtagh.  Given that lack of experience in prepping, we wonder how he does with a third race in seven weeks, something that hasn’t happened since he broke his maiden in his third lifetime start.

6.  BUENA VISTA (Rated 118) – DRN line 10-1, Coral line 16-1

Her Japanese form is well-known, her performance abilities on Tapeta, not as much.  The lack of a prep for this spot also offers some concern, but we know she takes the trip well and has handled international competition well.  Second in last year’s Dubai Sheema Classic, she has the best chance to be the first mare to win the world’s richest race. 

7.  GIO PONTI (Rated 125) – DRN line 12-1, Coral line 9-1

Missed a prep race in Florida and will likely work up to this race, which is certainly a bit of a concern, but the connections have pointed here for so long it seems a foregone conclusion they will get into this spot.  The setup isn’t as great this year.

8.  VICTOIRE PISA (no rating) – DRN line 15-1, Coral line 10-1

A recent prep win definitely boosts his form which lacks all-weather experience.  His win over Buena Vista in the Arima Kinen doesn’t make us prop him here as her performance in the Japan Cup betters that.  A 10-furlong specialist, he’s 4-for-4 over the distance.

9.  FLESH FOR FANTASY (no rating) – DRN line 20-1, Betfair line 16.1-1 (only shop offering)

Recently popped on our radar and carries odds only with Betfair at a surprisingly low price.  DubaiRaceNight.com has two sources inside Saudi Arabia and one outside that claim this guy already has an invitation to the big race, but is unable to independently confirm that this pacesetter has a spot.  See our FULL STORY about his background and chances to upset the race with front-running glory. 

10.  MENDIP (Rated 117) – DRN line 20-1, Coral line 16-1

May have shown his true colors in an all-out win in the Burj Nahaar over an unheralded domestic runner, perhaps why he hasn’t been sporting the royal blue just yet.

11.  RICHARD’S KID (Rated 119) – DRN line 30-1, Coral line 20-1

In need of a race in the Maktoum Challenge, he didn’t run to his potential, but his form has several marks of success when running back in subsequent second and third races off layoffs.  Needs more for a win.

12.  CAPE BLANCO (Rated 119) – DRN line 30-1, Coral line 9-2

If Ballydoyle was that high on his chances, would they have just sold an interest to Fitriani Hay?  The bookmakers are hot on his chances, but that’s the way they are with most every horse from the Aidan O’Brien camp.  At the Curragh?  Sure.  Meydan?  Not as much.  Without a prep race, and the barn having little experience getting horses ready to run this time of year, we are none too keen on his chances. 

13.  TRANSCEND (no rating) – DRN line 30-1, Coral line 20-1

Probably the best non-grass runner Japan has right now, he holds an invitation to the big race, solidified after winning the February Stakes (G1) over a mile.  The class jumps considerably and that is the main basis for his higher price here.

14.  FLY DOWN (no rating) – DRN line 50-1, Coral line 12-1

Nick Zito is a great dirt trainer but isn’t known for his runners over grass or synthetics.  A distant third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the top spot on the CV for this son of Mineshaft, most recently midpack in the Donn Handicap (G1). 

POTENTIAL RESERVES

15.  POET’S VOICE (Rated 122) – DRN line 12-1, Bet365 line – 10-1

Could go here or to the Dubai Duty Free off a nice Jebel Hatta run, he’s untested on the Tapeta but that leg-stretcher was encouraging against Presvis and Wigmore Hall.  As of now, the top-rated blue silks bearer.

16.  SKYSURFERS (Rated 115) – DRN line 20-1, Coral line 16-1

Another for Godolphin who could possibly be promoted to the big race if there is a spot for him.  Winner of the Firebreak Stakes over a mile, he could go to the Godolphin Mile again or stretch out.  They realized he runs better fresh, which is why he did not appear on Super Thursday.

17.  DEEM (Rated 115) – DRN line 30-1, no other line

If she is running in Dubai again this year, it could be in this race or the Dubai Sheema Classic.  Off a grand second when she followed Golden Sword in a February handicap, she could get a spot in the field with a defection or two.  We loved the way she lengthened on the Tapeta and regardless, would be among our picks if she goes on turf. 

18.  WIN FOR SURE (Rated 115) – DRN line 30-1, no other line

A good fourth in the Maktoum Challenge, he may have fired his best bullet there against top class and needs quite a few defections to get in the big race.

19.  I WANT REVENGE (no rating) – DRN line 60-1, Betfair line 56-1

Still lacks a win since the 2009 Wood Memorial (G1) and would be difficult to recommend off his fourth in the Donn Handicap.

Twice Over ran a visually impressive race – but the final time was ridiculously slow on a night where the other dirt races were relatively on-par compared to other Carnival times.  That concerns us a bit for his chances on the big night, but we will form a full opinion over the weekend and also develop our projected Dubai World Cup field and initial morning line.

Photo courtesy EERC photographer Cedric Lane

Similar to Twice Over and the connections’ “this is just a prep, he needs more work” warning, trainer Michael Bell did the same for Jebel Hatta winner Wigmore Hall.  Bell went out of his way during a Dubai Racing Channel interview to note how much this race was just the start of a long international campaign, one he would come-on for…then he goes out and runs a big one in, yet again, a slower time than we would expect. 

What we liked from Super Thursday:

-  Bankable showed real heart and got a great leg-stretcher in despite another troubled trip.  Headed back to the grass, he could be dangerous on the stretch out in the Dubai Duty Free.

 - Even though it wasn’t enough, we felt heartened that Win For Sure acquitted our backing well with a decent fourth behind Musir and Gitano Hernando.

 - After Presvis ran a huge Al Rashidiya, a bit of a step back in the Jebel Hatta isn’t crazy in hindsight.  Still, he ran well and progressive enough to think he can really move forward on the big night.

 - Monsieur Joe had some bad luck in running, but still ran a huge race and if he can improve slightly, will be in the mix on the big night.

 - Still of the belief that Musir was not fully cranked for his effort, especially as he was called up to the big race after being prepped for the Burj Nahaar.  Could continue his progression in the Dubai World Cup

What we didn’t like from Super Thursday

 - Happy Dubai could have run his top race here and not in the Al Quoz Sprint. 

 - Mendip didn’t thrill us in the Burj Nahaar and may or may not run on in the Dubai World Cup.  His win was slower than his Maktoum Challenge victory from January, but doesn’t match up to what Skysurfers did earlier in the campaign when winning the Firebreak Stakes. 

 - While Monterosso (pictured below) looked good off the shelf in the Dubai City of Gold, the well-fancied Interaction just gave it up in the stretch and is probably unlikely to make the Dubai World Cup – he was discussed as a possible.

Photo courtesy EERC photographer Cedric Lane

Best chances (not saying they will win, but just the best to come out of the big night) on Dubai World Cup night coming out of Super Thursday:

- Presvis – Dubai Duty Free
- Monterosso – Dubai Sheema Classic
- Bankable – Dubai Duty Free
- Gitano Hernando – Dubai World Cup
- Musir – Dubai World Cup;
- Monsieur Joe – Al Quoz Sprint

Coming this weekend – our amended look at the projected Dubai World Cup field with odds.