CLICK HERE for the Form Guide from the Emirates Racing Authority
CLICK HERE for US-style past performances courtesy of AmWest Entertainment

Race 1 – $20,000 SMKA-MK by Honeywell Handicap (Rated 60-80)
1,400 metres – Tapeta

Doug Watson will have a shout from his three entries in this race.  #1 DABOOS is definitely bred for dirt, with some incredibly strong American blood in his veins.  This will be his third start off the shelf and we considered it a failure when not better identifying his chances when first up on the dirt with that strong breeding when he won at Jebel Ali.  The problem is that Mutjammel was a huge longshot to beat him in his last race, a result no one could have predicted.  Now, maybe you could argue the hill was getting to Daboos on that occasion as the steep run-in could have dulled his kick, but he has to have a big chance here, and his second was also run over a rather fast time.

#14 RUTLAND BOY ran a good eight metres more than Lord Tiger in that last race according to the Trakus statistics, closing fast and late in his first start since July, enough to think he could definitely be competitive in here as the light weight.  Without much guess, he is arguably the barn’s third choice as Jamie Spencer rides here.  Given how #9 ENJOY TODAY improved from his first local start through to his win, some more improvement here puts him in the final frame.

1^st – #1 DABOOS, 2^nd – #14 RUTLAND BOY, 3^rd – #9 ENJOY TODAY

___________________________________________________________

Race 2 – $25,000 Al Naboodah Travel & Tourism Handicap (Rated 80-95)
2,200 metres – Tapeta

This race should stop and start with #14 TAHAAMAH.  We loved him when entered two weeks ago, but he flipped in the saddling paddock and left a rather dejected Frankie Dettori, who seemed incredibly frustrated that the likely heavy favourite was a late scratching.  This is the first Godolphin horse in memory that doesn’t qualify for the big ticket Carnival races to get a try amongst the lower-rated challengers, and as my good friend Justin Byrne of the EERC says – this is all part of the plan.  There are some decent horses in this field, but with a good draw in three, he is the pick of the night, only further boosted by the weight break.

#3 ZAIN SHAMARDAL got a wide run last time and flattened in much better company, the drop helps, but the five added kilos are a concern.  #11 RADEGUND ABBEY got a dream trip last time to win, and loses four kilos after running as the high weight.

1^st – #14 TAHAAMAH, 2^nd – #3 ZAIN SHAMARDAL, 3^rd – #11 RADEGUND ABBEY

___________________________________________________________

Race 3 – $20,000 Swaidan Trading Company Peugeot Handicap (Rated 60-85)
1,900 metres – Tapeta

#7 UPTOWN GUY was our tip when he ran last time and gets it again.  The barn is in cracking form and thought he would really need one, and he should have gotten a lot out of that effort.  He caught a wide trip in that last race after missing the break and getting the rush.  He traveled 12 metres more than winner #2 FURNACE, and if you envision a cleaner trip and some ground saving, which seems possible with some speed around him, he should settle and come on for the run.

#9 PROFONDO ROSSO could have missed his chance last time when running on to be second behind Street Act, who we thought was the likeliest winner in his last race.  #1 PASCHENDALE seemed a terrible favourite when first up, but he ran well and was closing late.  Clearly he needs more ground and gets it in this spot.  Unfortunately, he’s likely to run the MOST ground as he’s drawn widest with the shorter run to the first turn, which could compromise some of his chances.  James Doyle will have to ride with patience, as this guy is often known to appreciate.

***Updated – Note that #15 BAWADI draws into this race and had a very wide trip last time when running over today’s trip.  He was competitive until the very end, has the weights in favour, and traveled an astounding 23 metres more than Radegund Abbey, who goes in the second race.  Street Act, who suffered a similar wide draw out of that race, came back to win when covering a much better trip on January 6.

1^st – #7 UPTOWN GUY, 2^nd – #15 BAWADI, 3^rd – #9 PROFONDO ROSSO

___________________________________________________________

Race 4 – $20,000 Swaidan Trading Company VDL Handicap (Rated 75-95)
1,600 metres – Tapeta

So – as much as we appreciate the great season the EERC is having, can we really see #1 CLASP, at the ripe old age of ten, win consecutive races?  All of the EERC horses are in the most cracking of form, and we really can’t think of another time when one owner has had two horses reel off consecutive four race winning streaks at the same time…these guys have, with Kilt Rock at Jebel Ali going four on the bounce, and Karma Chameleon doing the same in the UK.  We just can’t support him doing it again, when it took so long for him to get that last win (February 2009 at Nad Al Sheba).

#6 AZAMEERA was held up in running last time and comes back with some more ground to get, and hopefully a smoother trip.  She covered 10 metres more than winner, and stablemate, Capital Attraction, and gets some class relief.  She seems the type that could improve for an all female quinella.

The pick is #11 METROPOLITAIN MISS, who made eight starts last season from April to October, recording a pair of wins including one over all-weather at Kempton when making her debut.  That was a great run when racing with prominence, and at that point, for Mick Channon.  Now with Ali Al Raihe, she’s surely going to have had her work put in, and has some form franking behind her grass starts.  That race at Musselburgh two back had two next out winners, and one of them, third home Blue Moon, came back to win twice on all-weather at Dundalk and Wolverhampton.  She’s a fresh face and should get a decent trip drawn inside.

1^st – #11 METROPOLITAIN MISS, 2^nd – #6 AZAMEERA, 3^rd – #1 CLASP

___________________________________________________________

Race 5 – $30,000 Al Naboodah Construction Group Handicap (Rated 90-102)
1,600 metres – Turf

There are definitely no standouts in this race, so #5 BURDLAZ is well within range.  The presence of #11 IGUAZU FALLS ensures pace, especially with regular rider Xavier Ziani aboard, as they hope to bottom out the field.  Burdlaz will appreciate the pace to run at, and frankly, seems so much better on grass than Tapeta.  The problem has been that his rating has made it difficult to get into some of the more competitive turf races during the Carnival in the past.  He has run well against some really strong Tapeta company, but his last wins came on the grass, over distances similar to today’s.  He’s the pick at what is likely to be a good price internationally.

#12 SPIRIT OF SHARJAH seems the type who will also appreciate the fiery pace and could definitely run on for a share, maybe even the top spot.  Back on the grass and at this point in his form cycle, the right setup could get it done.

#6 KRYPTON FACTOR is always one to give it a go, and he’s faced tougher company last year here than what he gets today.

1^st – #5 BURDLAZ, 2^nd – #6 KRYPTON FACTOR, 3^rd – #12 SPIRIT OF SHARJAH

____________________________________________________________

Race 6 – $110,000 Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group Handicap (Rated 95-105)
1,400 metres – Tapeta

Put a line through that last race for #9 ZABARAJAD and you have to consider this lightly-raced chance from John Oxx a massive chance.  Racing for the Aga Khan, this gelding could be around a long time and with good results.  He seems the main class of this field and while he’s only recorded a maiden win, the back class on grass is enough to think he’ll get huge support with the five kilo break from last race.  As 11-4 favourite there, he was drawn wide and suffered a real shuffle in the stretch, with Johnny Murtagh never able to uncork a run.  In fact, he never even uncorked the crop in what seemed like a quick run through the lane.  It could have been a true prep to prepare himself for the journey to Dubai and certainly greater riches.  He has to be a main consideration, even with the wide draw again.

If City Style and Start Right run well on Friday, maybe you consider #5 BRIDGEFIELD the main choice in here.  He did catch a wide trip last time under Ahmed Ajtebi, who is suspended for today’s card, and picks up Mickael Barzalona now.  He’s favourably rated in the weights and you think he’ll improve for the last run.

#6 GLOBAL CITY is tough to avoid in a race over the all-weather, and getting more ground. He flashed home last time at Lingfield in a pre-Dubai prep when third in the Golden Rose Stakes (Listed), having covered a ton of extra ground around the two turns of the six furlong trip there.  He does his best running late and with a horse like #4 FAMOUS WARRIOR absolutely positively forced to set the pace from the extreme outside, you have to think there will be some kick to get him going late.  #3 RUSSIAN ROCK deserves a chance to improve over an extra 200 metres as well as he came running at Barbecue Eddie in last week’s opener.  This is a competitive event.

1^st – #6 GLOBAL CITY, 2^nd – #9 ZABARAJAD, 3^rd – #5 BRIDGEFIELD

__________________________________________________________

2011-2012 UAE season-to-date: 171 selections – 41 first, 30 second, 17 third (24% win, 51% top three)

CLICK HERE for the form guide from the Emirates Racing Authority
CLICK HERE for US-Style past performances, courtesy of AmWest Entertainment

Saturday’s analysis will be posted later.

__________________________________________________________

Race 1 – $110,000 Swaidan Trading Company VDL Handicap (Rated 95-105)
2,200 metres – Tapeta

We backed #4 LYSSIO last time on the premise that he was likely to be the only one to go forward, and James Doyle took him off the pace.  Naturally, the race developed with  no speed at all, and Frankie Dettori schooled them all sending Honour System to the front with 1600 to run and it was all over.  That being said, he still ran very well, and at a huge price, internationally.  This race sets up in a similar fashion.

#7 SIRVINO looks like the pace on paper after going forward last time when well beaten by Mahbooba, who we see in the finale on the night.  But given his fading after racing with prominence, there seems no reason to think he’ll go forward again over this trip.

Backing horses like #5 MEASURING TIME can be hazardous to your health – he’s winless since consecutive scores on debut, and that’s it.  But he’s placed in eight of 11 starts since, and while encouraging, even doing so in decent company, it makes you wonder what is holding him back.  Of his second place finishes, he’s lost by .5L, a neck, a nose, .5L, 2.25L, and .75L, all in races from 1400m to 2000m, with his worst performances coming over ground more than 2000 metres.  Problematic?  It sure makes him tough to support here.

The quality of company #1 ROCHDALE has defeated leaves plenty to be desired in this company.  He has the look of a horse that will do the same thing he did last season – win two local races then flounder in Carnival company.  He did that on January 13, 2011 when tenth beaten eight by Rock N Roll Ransom over 2,000 metres at Meydan off two November victories.  He needs to prove it to us.

#3 CLUB OCEANIC is one of the few to come in with success over an all-weather surface, and seems to have some trouble getting involved in the early pace.  He is a new purchase for Godolphin, having previously been in the care of Jeremy Noseda, and defeated two decent Godolphin chances last time at Doncaster in Burj Nahar and Janood.  Considering the early pace last time wasn’t great, he ran a brilliant race under Jamie Spencer, and we could even contest the comment line that he dwelt in the gate…we’d call it more like a quarter-step slow.  The fifth place finisher in that race, Prince of Johanne, came back to win by almost two lengths over a field of 31 challengers when dismissed at 40-1, and the third place finisher, only a half-length behind, Sharaayeen, was a half-decent second behind Jamr here on January 6.  He’s the pick.

1^st – #3 CLUB OCEANIC, 2^nd – #4 LYSSIO, 3^rd – #5 MEASURING TIME

__________________________________________________________

Race 2 – $150,000 Al Naboodah Travel & Tourism Handicap (Rated 95+)
2,000 metres – Tapeta

Analysis of this race has to start with #2 PRINCE BISHOP, tenth in last year’s Dubai World Cup, beaten as much there as he was three weeks earlier in the Maktoum Challenge R3 (G2).  For what it’s worth, go back five starts ago and this is the same horse that defeated the mighty Cirrus Des Aigles in the Conseil Paris Stakes (G2) at Longchamp.  He was somewhat disregarded as the “other” Godolphin runner last time when Parlour Games, sent off 7-4 favourite, just didn’t do much.  The third home in that race at Kempton was Laaheb, who was fourth beaten 3.5 lengths in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) and failed to do much after that in his season back in the UK.

Prince Bishop totally dominated that last race at Kempton.  The pace was strong and Prince Bishop wasn’t that far off the early gallop, racing two wide much of the way.  When it came time to lay down, Sylvestre DeSousa just niggled at the son of Dubawi and off they went, while the early pacesetter faded to last and the rest of those in contention were fully extended, Prince Bishop glided away.  This definitely seems to be his game, and there could be even greater hopes ahead.  His performances in Dubai from a season ago left something to be desired, but he could just be one of those horses that gets better with age and can improve his second season in the desert.  If ready, the choice.

#4 SPRING OF FAME really caught our eye last year winning over Haatheq early in the Carnival, then showing a solid second behind Bold Silvano in the Maktoum Challenge – R2 (G3).  After that race, we thought he was a Dubai World Cup chance, but a third behind Honour System at the end of the Carnival wasn’t enough to give him that nudge, and a horse like Prince Bishop got the call for the home team instead.  He did his best running first up, and seems a completely different horse on all-weather as opposed to grass.  His penchant for running well, in Dubai, when fresh, makes him quite likable.

#3 BRONZE CANNON won a similar event here last year, winning over #1 MR BROCK, but past history indicates he’ll come on for this run.  Next time, or maybe two down.

#6 FANDITHA has a solid all-weather record, but this mare did not get a ton of respect from the handicapper when scoring those wins at Lingfield in March, going up three pounds in the ratings off two wins.  She tried a listed race at Kempton and rally didn’t show anything, so it leads us to believe the wins at Lingfield were much weaker than the finish would suggest.  However, the key to those races is that they were on her first appearance of a new campaign, and she emerges fresh for regular Carnival participant Mick Channon.  A somewhat unknown quantity that could claim a share.

#10 CAPITAL ATTRACTION will find the waters deeper here than before, but has the aggressive Mirco Demuro on board along with the advantage of a keen weight break.  We tipped him to win last time when relatively dismissed, but find that the added distance could contribute to some undoing here.  Not as bullish this time.

There is plenty of pace in this event and #1 MR BROCK has loved his time in the UAE, so ignoring him for a share is foolhardy.  The third behind Monterosso in the Dubai City of Gold sticks out as a legitimate performance on grass, and he’s managed two Carnival wins on the Tapeta from 2010.  He’s an old warrior and game as they come but might need a race before dropping into a slightly easier spot.

1^st – #2 PRINCE BISHOP, 2^nd – #4 SPRING OF FAME, 3^rd – #1 MR BROCK

__________________________________________________________

Race 3 – $150,000 Swaidan Trading Company Peugeot Handicap (Rated 95+)
1,800 metres – Turf

Everyone in this field has issues.  Now that is out of the way, let’s explain why we like #5 MORAN GRA.  First off, he’s never been over this far on the grass, or shown much interest in it.  Totally disregard his effort in the Maktoum Challenge last year, just draw a line.  A son of Rahy, he has worked spectacularly on the turf course, under Ted Durcan, and has notoriously needed a run or two.  In the sense that he is getting a small field here, we think this offers a great opportunity to get him while the picking is good.  Another field of 16 with various threats would make him easier to go against.

More so, there is plenty of early pace in here that we think could cancel out several top contenders, including #2 EMERALD COMMANDER, #3 SEA LORD, and #7 WAR MONGER.  #4 BANNA BOIRCHE is 0-from-16 on the grass and #8 ALRASM would seem to need much more ground on grass.

#1 VISCOUNT NELSON was a late pick-up for the DeKock team, leasing him from Coolmore in the hopes of getting some Carnival success.  Per DeKock’s preseason assessment, this horse “has had more trouble than the Greek economy,” and “could be anything” even though he seems to have team excited now that he is sound.  He’s got “wait for one” written all over him, so that is what we are doing.

1^st – #5 MORAN GRA, 2^nd – #6 MUTAHADEE, 3^rd – #2 EMERALD COMMANDER

__________________________________________________________

Race 4 – $100,000 Al Naboodah Construction Group Conditions
1,200 metres – Tapeta

This might be one of the toughest races of the Carnival so far, with so many different angles to consider.  We could beat around the bush with details on all of these horses, so let’s cut to the chase.

#10 ALO PURA is our pick in this spot.  She gets the weight break, along with #11 INVINCIBLE ASH, and is actually the record holder for 1,200 metres at Meydan.  Her win last time at Jebel Ali was the fastest 1,200 of the season there, and she did that running up the hill, and geared down.  It was a flawless performance against a horse in Mujaazef who had won three on the bounce.  She also did her running almost a fifth-of-a-second faster than Kilt Rock’s fourth consecutive win at Jebel Ali, over the same trip, two weeks later.  Given that the weather and timings of many of these meetings are the same, comparing times across days and even weeks, is a legitimate act.

Her best running often comes soon off the shelf, and her record setting win last year had her 1.5 lengths better than Force Freeze, who picked and chose which spots to run in at Meydan, picking that day as a legitimate spot.

Most importantly, we like Alo Pura here because most other people won’t, but she has as good a chance as any.  Contrarians at heart.

I’m fairly certain trainer Steven Burridge thinks #1 CAPTAIN OBVIOUS is one of his best chances here, and definitely, his company lines are solid.  His last all-weather performance was a clear prep to get him fit for the travel to Dubai, and before that, he definitely faced top company in Singapore.  The eighth behind Better Than Ever, beaten five lengths, should be viewed as a badge of honour more than anything else.  This gelding made his bones in Malaysia before heading across the straits to Singapore, and is a most-consider.

#5 INXILE won three consecutive after leaving Dubai last year with nothing more than a broken heart from a few close calls.  His first up run was best, losing a squeaker to a closing Our Giant in a fast time.  If Dandy Nicholls has him geared-up the same, he deserves a long look, as does #9 SILAAH, who was second here twice and is way better on all-weather than anything.

What about the Wizard in this spot?  #6 REYNALDOTHEWIZARD was handy when beating Barbecue Eddie, a winner last week in a Carnival race, and he also defeated Russian Rock who was a next-out winner by 4.5 lengths and came back to a credible third behind Barbecue Eddie.  He’s another that has run well when fresh and deserves as much of a shout as any in here, especially considering he exploded second off the layoff over 1,400 here last season.  What happens Friday – he’s second off the layoff again.

#2 IVER BRIDGE LAD ran here five times last year and his best result was his last result, when second behind JJ The Jet Plane.  It’s tough to suggest whether or not he needs to run into shape, but that race was on grass, and this one isn’t.  He’s had success at Kempton, but seems a dodgy chance to support.

#3 ALAZEYAB was a local winner in 2010 at a big price when getting a class drop.  Now, he’s been rested off a local win at the beginning of the season and his second in the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3) holds his best chance in here.  There have been few bright spots to endorse him off the November win and seems a coin flip at best.

Then there is #11 INVINCIBLE ASH, who crushed our spirits on opening night when finding trouble down the straight.  Her all-weather form locally isn’t awful, and we won’t be surprised if she pops a big one, but others rate better chances under these conditions.

1^st – #10 ALO PURA, 2^nd – #6 REYNALDOTHEWIZARD, 3^rd – #1 CAPTAIN OBVIOUS

___________________________________________________________

Race 5 – $200,000 Cape Verdi (G2) Sponsored by Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group
1,600 metres – Turf

Only eight to go in the Cape Verdi, and the powerful #7 MAHBOOBA is back after a devastating win against open company in the Al Rashidiya prep.  It would be easy to think she’s could go in the main race itself, and we thought she might even find the trip too sharp.  Needless to say, she comes back, drops 200 metres in trip, and is presumably no worse for wear.  The thinking seems to be – let’s get a win in Group company, on grass, NOW, and she can do it easily against this field.  Off that win, and getting her on level weights with others here, makes her a mandatory selection, and best tip of the day.  She’ll be an overwhelming favourite in the on-course pick six competition.

It’s clear that #8 RHYTHM OF LIGHT can travel well, finishing a strong second in Istanbul behind a sizzling time over the Veliefendi turf.  The company lines are strong and the yard has been boasting about the great form she is in via social media.  That can’t hurt.

#1 FIRST CITY doesn’t win often, but she gets a call in many of her tries, and the finishes behind Antara, Lolly For Dolly, and Timepiece all stand out as enough to give her a chance for a minor placing behind the top choice.

1^st – #7 MAHBOOBA, 2^nd – #8 RHYTHM OF LIGHT, 3^rd – #1 FIRST CITY

__________________________________________________________

Race 6 – $120,000 SMKA – MK by Honeywell Handicap (Rated 100-110)
1,600 metres – Turf

A tough way to close the card out with a variety of options.  #12 START RIGHT was our pick last time, but just got out run late in by stable companions that didn’t rate as high for us.  It makes him tough to select here, going back to grass, and drawing widest.

That is the flag of Mauritus draped across the silks that will be carried by Johnny Geroudis for #2 DISA LEADER, one of our Carnival horses to watch, for trainer Mike De Kock.  He’s a goodie alright, and is one of the most beloved horses to come out of the island nation of Mauritius, becoming their first local hope since Mr. Brock to run at the Carnival.  He began his career in South Africa, but seven of his ten wins came on the island.  The toughest thing here is understanding whether or not he runs into shape.  Keep an eye out on the comments from DeKock in the run up to this race and you might get a better idea if he is spot on.  He is quality, anyway you look at it, but this might be tough to expect the win right away.

It seems a fair certainty that #6 THE RECTIFIER is going to go on with the early pace and try to stay as long as possible, but he seems overmatched to see it out.  #11 NAVAJO CHIEF often races with prominence and he needed one here last time before a couple strong efforts, including a win.  He almost took the race from an impressive Win For Sure, and finished ahead of Raihana, Start Right, Barbecue Eddie, and #5 HUJAYLEA that day.  The Lingfield race has the look of a pre-flight prep, so all things considered, it wasn’t terrible.  He gets our narrow nod in this spot, despite the wide draw.

1^st – #11 NAVAJO CHIEF, 2^nd – #2 DISA LEADER, 3^rd – #5 HUJAYLEA

__________________________________________________________

2011-2012 UAE season-to-date: 165 selections – 40 first, 29 second, 17 third (24% win, 52% top three)

#	R6 – DUBAI DUTY FREE (G1)				#	R7 – DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC (G1)
1	Imbongi	C Soumillon	10		1	Jukebox Jury	R Ffrench	40
2	Good Ba Ba	W Marwing	7		2	Eastern Anthem	A Ajtebi	50
3	Justenuffhumor	T Durcan	30		3	Anmar	R Hills	50
4	Ibn Battuta	W Smith	20		4	Pan River	S Kaya	9
5	Courageous Cat	G Gomez	12		5	Quijano	A Starke	25
6	Tam Lin	W Supple	45		6	Pompeyano	R Mullen	40
7	Al Shemali	R Ffrench	60		7	Youmzain	K Fallon	15
8	Bankable	K Shea	5		8	Golden Sword	C Soumillon	30
9	The Usual Q T	V Espinoza	60		9	Presious Passion	E Trujillo	5
10	Take The Points	E Prado	20		10	Buena Vista	O Peslier	6
11	Alexandros	L Dettori	3.5		11	Deem	J Leparoux	15
12	Confront	R Moore	15		12	Mourilyan	K Shea	12
13	Lahaleeb	J Egan	50		13	Spanish Moon	R Moore	6
14	Snaffy	R Hills	35		14	Dar Re Mi	W Buick	20
15	Presvis	C Lemaire	2.5		15	Campanologist	T Durcan	5.5
16	Calvados Blues	A Ajtebi	35		16	Cavalryman	L Dettori	8
#	R8 – DUBAI WORLD CUP (G1)
1	Allybar	A Ajtebi	9
2	Gitano Hernando	K Fallon	10
3	Red Desire	C Soumillon	4.5
4	Gio Ponti	R Dominguez	3.5
5	Gloria De Campeao	T Pereira	6.5
6	Vision D’Etat	O Peslier	20
7	Lizard’s Desire	K Shea	15
8	Furthest Land	J Leparoux	40
9	Crowded House	J Velazquez	8
10	Richard’s Kid	G Gomez	10
11	Twice Over	T Queally	15
12	Mastery	L Dettori	35
13	Mr Brock	R Moore	50
14	Amor De Pobre	A Gryder	20

Coming up Thursday, DubaiRaceNight.com will offer its horse-by-horse take on the seven thoroughbred races of the 2010 Dubai World Cup, including our tips for the first four in each event.  Photographs from morning trackwork will be joined by Breakfast With the Stars and much later, the Arabian Nights party.

#	R2 – Al QUOZ SPRINT (G3)				#	R3 – GODOLPHIN MILE (G2)
1	Mariol	C Lemaire	60		1	Kalahari Gold	R Hills	20
2	Asset	T Durcan	30		2	Cat Junior	J Spencer	4
3	Sirocco Breeze	L Dettori	10		3	Le Drakkar	C Sanchez	45
4	All Silent	C Brown	10		4	Calming Influence	A Ajtebi	20
5	Our Giant	K Shea	7		5	Glorious Noah	S Kobayashi	40
6	Joy And Fun	B Doyle	5		6	Lucky Find	K Shea	12
7	Fravashi	A Ajtebi	25		7	Consul General	A Gryder	8
8	California Flag	J Talamo	6		8	Vesuve	W Smith	35
9	War Artist	O Peslier	5		9	Jet Express	R Ffrench	25
10	Prince Shaun	T O’Shea	30		10	Forgotten Voice	R Moore	5.5
11	Finjaan	R Hills	12		11	Desert Party	L Dettori	3.5
12	Sir Gerry	R Moore	40		12	Skysurfers	T Durcan	12
13	Dohasa	P Smullen	30		13	Summit Surge	K Fallon	30
14	Star Crowned	R Ffrench	6		14	Green Coast	T O’Shea	15
15	Terrific Challenge	R Mullen	20
16	Judd Street	K Fallon	15
#	R4 – UAE DERBY (G2)				#	R5 – DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN (G1)
1	Oroveso	T Pereira	40		1	One World	D Beadman	12
2	Enak	T Durcan	35		2	Eagle Falls	C Brown	10
3	Raihana	K Shea	7		3	Benbaun	P Smullen	12
4	Della Barba	O Peslier	10		4	Laurel Guerreiro	S Fujita	40
5	Mendip	L Dettori	4		5	Force Freeze	T O’Shea	20
6	Siyaadah	A Gryder	20		6	Rocket Man	R Fradd	2.5
7	Frozen Power	A Ajtebi	8		7	Kinsale King	G Gomez	7
8	Uncle Tom	K Fallon	20		8	Gayego	L Dettori	1.8
9	Musir	C Soumillon	1.5		9	Regal Parade	A Nicholls	15
10	Makaanah	J Barria	30		10	Mutheeb	R Hills	15
11	Izaaj	W Supple	50
12	Solid Choice	K Latham	50
13	Timely Jazz	P Graberg	35
14	Mr. Crazy Boy	C Brown	40

]]> http://www.dubairacenight.com/post-position-results-for-first-four-thoroughbred-races-at-dubai-world-cup-meetings/feed/ 0 http://www.dubairacenight.com/recapping-our-picks-for-meydan-masters-friday/ http://www.dubairacenight.com/recapping-our-picks-for-meydan-masters-friday/#comments Fri, 05 Mar 2010 03:45:51 +0000 PatCummings http://dubairacenight.com/?p=3198     Pat Cummings Amelia Baldree Race 1 1st 9 – Lui Rei 1 – Global City 2nd 1 – Global City 10 – Thor’s Echo 3rd 8 – Good Control 11 – Rileyskeepingfaith Race 2 1st 1 – Consul General 10 – Silverside 2nd 10 – Silverside 3 – City Style 3rd 2 – Sirocco Breeze 5 – Marching Race 3 1st 10 – Frozen Power 11 – Tahitian Warrior 2nd 4 – Talenta 10 – Frozen Power 3rd 1 – Real Secret 1 – Real Secret Race 4 1st 7 – Soy Libriano 3 – Drunken Sailor 2nd 3 – Drunken Sailor 2 – Firebet 3rd 6 – Burdlaz 7 – Soy Libriano Race 5 1st 10 – Monte Alto 7 – Roman’s Run 2nd 11 – Roman Republic 9 – Kal Barg 3rd 4 – Fiery Lad 3 – Hattan Race 6 1st 2 – Aichi 1 – Sol De Angra 2nd 12 – Oasis Star 12 – Oasis Star 3rd 3 – Barney McGrew 4 – Calrissian Race 7 1st 10 – Imbongi 7 – Yasoodd 2nd 12 – Purple Sage 4 – Snaffy 3rd 1 – Rio De La Plata 10 – Imbongi 2010 DIRC Results 2010 DIRC Results 1st – 14 1st – 11 2nd – 10 2nd – 15 3rd – 6 3rd – 4 From 63 top selections From 63 top selections Win – 22% Win – 17% Top 3 – 48% Top 3 – 48% ]]> http://www.dubairacenight.com/recapping-our-picks-for-meydan-masters-friday/feed/ 0 http://www.dubairacenight.com/dirc-night-9-meydan-masters-race-analysis-friday/ http://www.dubairacenight.com/dirc-night-9-meydan-masters-race-analysis-friday/#comments Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:04:38 +0000 PatCummings http://dubairacenight.com/?p=3147 Race 1 - $120,000 The Meydan Hotel – Meydan Masters Leg 1, 1,200 meters, Tapeta

#9 LUI REI gets our nod as the top pick in a ridiculously competitive opening heat.  He ran incredibly well first up for Herman Brown when second behind Frosty Secret after arriving in Brown’s barn late in the season.  This colt bred in Italy ran on from the tail and I suspect Richard Hills will adopt a similar position here.  Let’s see if a rare far-afielder can get the job done when sprinting – it has been a while.  #1 GLOBAL CITY is tough to go against here, but we do so in search of value.  Another of the dual-Carnival winners, Global City is well-positioned for a third but gets an added 4 kilos to level the field.  Watch how Montpellier runs on Thursday to help judge.  #8 GOOD CONTROL hasn’t run a bad race in the UAE and must be considered on his game performances.

1st – #9 LUI REI, 2nd – #1 GLOBAL CITY, 3rd – #8 GOOD CONTROL

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 2 – $120,000 The Meydan Museum – Meydan Masters Leg 2, 1,400 meters, Tapeta

All things considered, #1 CONSUL GENERAL has kept the best company with recency in this field and despite the impost of 62 kilos, this Saudi based mount of Aaron Gryder has been consistent in showing an affinity to get over the course.  Facing the great effort of Gloria De Campeao and the freakish Skysurfers, the drop in class should help, as should the 1,400 meters trip.  His races have looked like he would prefer over shorter and I think this could suit him well.  #2 SIROCCO BREEZE was dandy when beating Mutheeb last time, and briefly owned the mark for the fastest 1,400 meters before Midshipman one-upped last week.  He too is propped up in the ratings and must deal with an extra 7.5 kilos.  Tough. 

There is nothing wrong with liking #10 SILVERSIDE, a pleasant surprise for the Spanish connections who have enjoyed two great runs from their colt by Pleasantly Perfect, a Dubai World Cup winner.  This is his third start up and could be a big one.

1st – #1 CONSUL GENERAL, 2nd – #10 SILVERSIDE, 3rd – #2 SIROCCO BREEZE

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 3 – $150,000 Meydan Classic, 1,600 meters, Turf

 #11 TAHITIAN WARRIOR is the Godolphin new recruit but I think #10 FROZEN POWER is the proven player here.  If Godolphin is hoping to get Tahitian Warrior ready for the Kentucky Derby, this is a local leg-stretcher after his recent ship from Florida.  Frozen Power is three of six over the green and his Tapeta runs behind Musir have been encouraging.  Knowing that he is fit, it makes sense to give him a shot back on the surface he appreciated back home.  I’m just skeptical of the placement of Tahitian Warrior here and obt for Ajtebi’s mount…who, notably, carries the blue cap.

#4 TALENTA just has not adapted to the Tapeta and is sent back to her preferred surface.  She has come down in the ratings but still carries the Group 1 penalty.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see her come on with a bigger run, along with stablemate #1 REAL SECRET, whose last race was awful from start to finish. 

1st – #10 FROZEN POWER, 2nd – #4 TALENTA, 3rd – #1 REAL SECRET

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 4 – $120,000 The Meydan City Corporation – Meydan Masters Leg 3, 2,200 meters, Tapeta

This is a wide open race and I think just about all of them could land a piece.  It almost makes overwhelming analysis pointless…I could write about every horse and still not convince myself…

#6 BURDLAZ put in a surprisingly strong run against Lizard’s Desire last time and would seem to relish some added ground.  There is reason to expect a move forward from that last race.  #2 FIREBET had every chance to beat Al Shemali but couldn’t get the job done.  He always goes close and is near the finish.  A consistent type, I think he is a logical winner.  As for logic, #3 DRUNKEN SAILOR could do it again.  2-for-2 over the trip and course makes him dangerous, especially now third off after having picked it up last time over King of Rome.  Let’s go with #7 SOY LIBRIANO.  He won a race this time last year and is third off for Ryan Moore.  He has shown progressive form and could score at a price.

1st – #7 SOY LIBRIANO, 2nd – #3 DRUNKEN SAILOR, 3rd – #6 BURDLAZ

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 5 – $150,000 Imax Meydan Masters Leg 4, 2,000 meters, Tapeta

Just a point of order…if #12 EMERALD WILDERNESS wins, I’m going crazy.  He adds cheekpieces for what its worth and has beaten me three times this Carnival.  I’ll have a saver on him any way. 

#10 MONTE ALTO has had two weeks off and that might put him over the top.  Good fortunes for Richard Hills to have drawn this mount and I think it fitting that the four-time Meydan placer gets a win on the Carnival’s closing night.  #11 ROMAN REPUBLIC was unlucky last time when #7 ROMAN’S RUN ran a freak race.  I prefer the Republic of the Run.  #4 FIERY LAD is better than he has shown and could improve second up.

1st – #10 MONTE ALTO, 2nd – #11 ROMAN REPUBLIC, 3rd – #4 FIERY LAD

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 6 – $175,000 Meydan Conditions, 1,200 meters, Turf

#2 AICHI has been begging for the chute to open and the straight course run will be the first and only at Meydan before the upgraded Al Quoz Sprint (G3).  That run last week wasn’t bad but you have to think he improves on the green.  #12 OASIS STAR has performed admirably for India this Carnival and gets a weight break, a monumental rider change, and the preferred surface.  She could run a big one.  #3 BARNEY MCGREW ran here last week knowing this race was coming up, and is likely using that to tune up here.  Nothing wrong with that – these sprints are his specialty and the gallant gelding could be the winner.  In the end, the top class rises.

1st – #2 AICHI, 2nd – #12 OASIS STAR, 3rd – #3 BARNEY MCGREW

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 7 - $250,000 Zabeel Mile (G2), 1,600 meters, Turf

The final event of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival is a solid renewal of the Zabeel Mile.  #10 IMBONGI was spot in in the Al Fahidi Fort when dueling with Bankable and gets the nod here.  He did nothing wrong in that race and leads me to believe he is the most in form competitor of the 12.  What was #12 PURPLE SAGE doing on the lead last time out, blazing a solo trail?  Trainer Fawzi Nass is likely pleased Luca Cumani has #9 SUMMIT SURGE in here as Olivier Peslier gets aboard his filly.  To prove her flashing home in the Cape Verde wasn’t a fluke, I will give her a placing chance.  #1 RIO DE LA PLATA brings the big resume to the race and is first up on the last night.  He is class all the way but not the same from his younger days.  A tough top pick, so I’ll leave him on the bottom.

1st – #10 IMBONGI, 2nd – #12 PURPLE SAGE, 3rd – #1 RIO DE LA PLATA

Race 1 – $55,000 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 (G1) for purebred Arabians, 2,000 meters, Tapeta

#9 NO RISK AL MAURY leaves us no choice but to put him up top.  His performance on opening night was a strong, easy win, and another similar performance could leave us a monumental showdown of top Arabians in the Kahayla Classic to kick off the World Cup card.  The pick.  #10 KANDAR DU FALGAS was not completely overwhelmed in his fourth on opening night and stands to come on for that run.  #8 VITE ROYALE goes close and adds a visor for this event; his rash of placings could continue here.  It is worth noting that #6 RABAH DE CARRERE ran incredibly well in his only lifetime start over all-weather.

1st – #9 NO RISK AL MAURY, 2nd – #10 KANDAR DU FALGAS, 3rd – #8 VITE ROYALE

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 2 – $250,000 Bahri Al Bastakiya (Listed), 1,900 meters, Tapeta

Any way you look at it, Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum has had a magnificent Carnival, landing the UAE Oaks and UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) with homebred offspring from Redoute’s Choice.  Sadly, his #1 MUSIR was declared a non-runner late Tuesday and his quest to become the second UAE Triple Crown is foiled.  So where do we go from here?

The popular choice in most of the international wagering is likely to center on #8 VALE OF YORK, the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) champion.  That win came from nowhere, frankly, and had runner-up Lookin At Lucky not endured such a monumentally wide trip, chances are we wouldn’t have seen Ahmed Ajtebi in the winner’s circle that day.  Given what Godolphin has said about this son of Invisible Spirit, I tend to think his chance to win is a small one, even with the Musir scratch.  Don’t take a short price if you don’t have to…I won’t.

I’m siding with #4 DELLA BARBA.  Assistant trainer Stephane Chevalier was very positive about the chances of this colt by Della Francesca and his third behind Musir in the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3), his first start in almost seven months, was a very decent performance.  He stands to come on for that run with a win over the track and the breeding suggests he can get this longer trip, a 300 meter jump over his previous long.  Della Francesca was a winner over 2,000 meters in the UK and we could see Della Barba improving Thursday.

#13 UNCLE TOM was really closing on #14 MENDIP last time out.  Both ran great races, but I thought Uncle Tom was the real eye-catcher out of the race.  Mendip has every reason to improve off that last effort and the breeding is there to suggest he can handle the trip.  Uncle Tom is likely to be a bit of a price and could pull off a mild upset with the win, that we consider quite possible.

1st – #4 DELLA BARBA, 2nd – #13 UNCLE TOM, 3rd – #14 MENDIP

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Race 3 – $200,000 Elnadim Mahab Al Shimaal (G3), 1,200 meters, Tapeta

It is worth noting that the 2009 winner of this race, Gayego, skips an appearance here in what might be a lesson learned for Godolphin.  His run second off the layoff late in 2009, winning the Ancient Title at Santa Anita, was so big that Saeed bin Suroor and Team Blue might think it best to leave him in the barn with the big race on the horizon.  I have heard nothing otherwise to indicate an injury.  Now, on to those who are here…

#2 DESERT PARTY will go sprinting in his first start since sustaining an injury in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).  He was a top pick of mine that day and caught an awful trip where he was jostled about quite a bit.  The problem?  This trip seems too short for him and I would be impressed as anything if he came out guns ablaze with a big effort.  I just doubt we see the best from him in this spot.  Fourth.

#7 WAR ARTIST ran the fastest 1,200 meters of the Carnival so far and gapped the field well turning for home with a burst from in between runners.  He is saddled with an added 3.5 kilos for this run, which could prove some added challenge.  There is little one can do to avoid comparing his win to that of #10 FORCE FREEZE, whose second over Star Crowned was later franked when he came back to win last week.  The former was more visually impressive than the latter, and the times don’t lie. 

#3 BARBECUE EDDIE struggled to repeat his form from early in the Carnival after breaking slow, absolutely killing his chances.  Willie Supple rushed him up to the lead and forced him on, leading to the eventual backpedaling we saw.  He totes an added 5.5 kilos on Thursday and faces some tougher company. 

#12 MUTHEEB had a troubled trip three back and followed up with a win by a handy five over Stoic.  He too was no matche for Sirocco Breeze when second on February 18 and makes his fourth start of the Carnival.  If anything, the breeding on this colt suggests he would prefer a longer trip, not a shorter one.  As for #4 PRINCE SHAUN, is there anything wrong with thinking he can’t run back to a decent placing he did before?  Leahurst is pointed to the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), and this gelding scoped dirty earlier in the season.  With the hot pace likely, he could come sporting from the back.  I think a placing chance also needs to be given to #1 PALAZZONE whose third over 1,400 meters in February 11 was a game run.  The 200 meters drop should benefit him as well.

1st – #7 WAR ARTIST, 2nd – #3 BARBECUE EDDIE, 3rd – #4 PRINCE SHAUN   

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 4 – $200,000 Alhaarth Burj Nahaar (G3), 1,600 meters, Tapeta

This Godolphin Mile (G2) prep gives us a host of solid Carnival performers, including handy winners #6 SKYSURFERS and #7 CALMING INFLUENCE, both for the home teamers.  Skysurfers has been handled with gentle care, not debuting until late in his 3-year-old season and blasted a strong field two weeks ago over the same trip.  He actually gets a slight weight break here and has been quoted in some pools for the Dubai World Cup (G1).  While you cannot doubt the running lines, I’m leary of the price, and the ability to bounce back so fast after taking so long to get to the races. 

My pick here is #5 FORGOTTEN VOICE, who flashed home in the Maktoum Challenge R1 (G3) on opening night.  His move was the most eye-catching from that race and I really thought he stamped himself a World Cup contender.  Jeremy Noseda is taking the cautious approach with the son of Danehill Dancer, who was unbeaten on the all-weather before that strong second to Gloria De Campeao.  His Maktoum Challenge run was somewhat troubled with traffic and he made up about ten to twelve lengths on the leaders after being the last horse to turn for home.  Ryan Moore has to be confident getting back aboard and it is worth noting that Midshipman, fourth that day, came back to win handy last week, while the third home, Consul General, confirmed that effort with another third behind Skysurfers. 

#12 SONEVA is a filly against the boys in this spot and was game as could be winning the Cape Verde (G3) on February 5.  Second home that day, Aspectoflove, came back to run another strong race in the Balanchine (G3) last week.  The breeding lines on Soneva indicate she should not be frightful of a race away from the grass. 

It is also tough to ignore #9 GREEN COAST, a winner two weeks ago over a seven furlong trip here.  We’ve talked much about him in our analysis before, he is a consistent type who loves getting in the frame.  The stakes go up today. 

The eleventh placing for #10 DON RENATO, who had been 18-for-22 in the placings prior to his Meydan debut, was uninspiring.  Perhaps he doesn’t like the surface or maybe something just went wrong.  We can give him another shot to grab a piece of the pie before falling off the bandwagon.

1st – #5 FORGOTTEN VOICE, 2nd – #12 SONEVA, 3rd – 6 SKYSURFERS

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 5 -  $250,000 Marju Dubai City of Gold (G2), 2,485 meters, turf

Could this race have a few more question marks?  Does #9 PAN RIVER re-confirm his form, franked a week ago when Lucky Find was a handy winner over Tapeta?  Will #12 QUIJANO finally win another race that isn’t held at Milan?  He is the back-to-back winner of a stakes race there but started his career 10-for-11 and is 4-for-21 since, with the two Milan wins and two in his native Germany.  He’s almost always close and tough to throw out…he looks for his first Carnival win since 2007, when he won this very race.

Does #5 HALICARNASSUS keep thriving?  His second over Tapeta was encouraging, his win over Mourilyan was downright impressive, making all the running and holding sway over this trip.  You never know when this entire wants to keep staying!

Will #6 PURPLE MOON prep again with a decent performance with eyes on a bigger prize?  Fourth beaten more than two last year in this event, the son of Galileo came back to a devastating third in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) and has been off ever since for Luca Cumani.  The layoff is the primary concern, but you know Luca will have him as fit as possible.  #14 KING OF ROME gets back on turf after four local efforts that have some quality behind them. 

And then we have the classy #2 CAMPANOLOGIST, winner over Bankable at Windsor last year and the keeper of some solid company.  How does he take off the shelf?  He will run forward with Halicarnassus and holds that awesome class line when he bested Conduit back in 2008. 

Find me the dart board, I’m stumped.  Let’s go with #6 Purple Moon.  Pan River was asked for a ton of run last time and while he was actually in front of two next out winners, the overall field quality just wasn’t the same as today.  Pick an angle – you can apply to just about anyone here.

1st – #6 PURPLE MOON, 2nd – #12 QUIJANO, 3rd – #2 CAMPANOLOGIST

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 6 – $300,000 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 (G2), 2,000 meters, Tapeta

The great race mare #8 VODKA makes her lifetime debut away from the turf and stands to use this as a prep for the Dubai World Cup (G1), if things go well, or a leg-stretcher for the Dubai Duty Free (g1) if things do not.  She is a real firecracker, winning ten of 25 lifetime starts, but if you think I have enough sure-footed confidence to put her on top – you are crazy.  I absolutely must see one from her before judging. 

Godolphin unveils #11 CAVALRYMAN, a solid third in the Prix d’la Arc de Triomphe, just two lengths behind Sea The Stars, and was incredibly impressive to have stayed on throughout the running.  A son of Halling, a winner of two legs of the Maktoum Challenge from years past, you should think that Cavalryman can get over the Tapeta, training in Dubai this winter. 

#5 GLORIA DE CAMPEAO, winner of the first leg of this event on opening night, goes second off the shelf and has been doing some of the best running of his career in the last year.  If that January race were 100 meters more, he is a loser.  Can he win with the same trip over 2,000 meters today?  I don’t think so. 

I have long-argued that #14 JOE LOUIS was best around 2,000 meters, and he showed that when winning over the trip in Saudi three starts back, last November.  He was our narrow pick over Well Armed in the 2009 Dubai World Cup, and well, you know how that turned out.  Can he get over the Tapeta?  We’ll see.  Again – this is about recency.  Ignore the last start when Wind Flow pulled a monument King’s Cup upset after a ridiculous pace-duel compromised the normal run of the race.  He could challenge for a spot.

#2 ALLYBAR pops up in the rankings five pounds while #1 LIZARD’S DESIRE is up eight, both dual-Carnival winners over the distance.  Their recency edge, to be, puts them on top in this event.  While other horses outclass them on past form, you cannot knock the recent ability they have shown to get over this course.  How well Allybar does after a significant exertion last time is a bit of a question, but that win over well-backed Crowded House was a stong one.  I think both could run big ones again, and to a different degree, will be surprised if either of these DO NOT run a decent race. 

1st – #2 ALLYBAR, 2nd – #1 LIZARD’S DESIRE , 3rd – #14 JOE LOUIS

_______________________________________________________________________________

Race 7 – $250,000 Haatel Jebel Hatta (G2), 1,800 meters, Turf

This is a fitting way to end Super Thursday with one of the best fields of the Carnival.  I don’t think we can argue that #1 PRESVIS is back in the right spot.  It is just a REALLY tough spot.  The reuniting with Ryan Moore is a positive change and the return to turf a good sign as well.  He is appropriately top-rated along with #8 JUSTENUFFHUMOR, who should be off a few pegs in my mind. 

#3 ALEXANDROS was spot-on in his Al Rashidiya (G3) victory over Crowded House, just powering away from the field.  He runs forward whereas Presvis often flashes from the tail.  He will be the one catch, in my eye.  #6 IBN BATTUTA was gallant in defeat in the Al Fahidi Fort (G2) but it has been a long season and with the waters even deeper here, another placing might be the limit.  #7 ZIRCONEUM was our pick, twice this Carnival.  She didn’t have much excuse last time when Deem won but she just keeps looking more and more like Jay Peg to me, who labored with decent runs in the Carnival and exploded on World Cup night, winning the Dubai Duty Free (G1) in course record time. 

#5 LAHALEEB was a monstrous longshot winner at Woodbine and sold after that.  She would seem to be facing a tough task.  In the end, the powerful stride of Alexandros leans me in his direction.

1st – #3 ALEXANDROS, 2nd – #1 PRESVIS, 3rd – #7 ZIRCONEUM