CLICK HERE for the form guide courtesy Emirates Racing Authority
CLICK HERE for the past performances (US-style) courtesy AmWest Entertainment

Race 1 – $55,000 Maktoum Challenge for purebred Arabians – R2 (G1)
2,200 metres (Tapeta)

This race surely cannot be viewed in the same light as the first round of the Maktoum Challenge given the added 200 metres of this event.  How #3 ALBAR LOTOIS lost three pounds in the ratings, down from 113 to 110 is amazing to me, but it happened.  He seems to be rounding into top form at the right time and this trip is likely to hit him where he wants it most.  #6 FRYVOLOUS might not necessarily appreciate the extra ground, but the top choice of the barn, he does still draw Mirco Demuro away from #2 FORGEHILL CEZANNE, who, arguably, better appreciates the 2,200.

#8 NIRWAN won this last race year in a boil-over, but seems overmatched as he hasn’t been able to see it through since.  #7 SAHIB DU CLOS ran very well against top company last week in the HH The President of the UAE Cup (G1) at Abu Dhabi, confirming his top form on display when winning at Meydan off a rating of 80.

1^st – #3 ALBAR LOTOIS, 2^nd – #7 SAHIB DU CLOS, 3^rd – #2 FORGEHILL CEZANNE

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Race 2 – $120,000 Dubal Casthouse Trophy (Rated 100-110)
2,200 metres, Tapeta

This will be the litmus test for #9 JAMR, a winner of three on the bounce through increasingly better company.  He’s absolutely loved the Tapeta, but finds the water even deeper here than in the past.  This is an even better field than last time, and we have to go against him at what might be too short of a price in international markets.  We think his run of success could have him amongst the top picks in the on-course competitions.

Three horses re-emerge in this event from the race won by our Maktoum Challenge selection, Prince Bishop.  Note that the nine horses behind Prince Bishop were separated by only six lengths, so there wasn’t much between them then.  #3 SPRING OF FAME seemed all in leaving the backstretch last time and faded, then re-rallied for a surprising second.  He was off a four month rest, and might have needed the race.  Prince Bishop was winning regardless of the field, so we don’t hold his competition against him, but when Spring of Fame looked absolutely beaten and “rallied” back to second last time, we think it might be more of an indictment of the field he faced than anything.  We’re playing against him.

Frankie rides #1 HOLBERG, a horse who took his shot in the Melbourne Cup from 2010 for Godolphin.  His all-weather races are decent, which included a maiden win at Southwell in 2008, a 0-85 handicap at Kempton in his next start at the end of that season, and a Group 3 at Kempton in September 2010 over 2,400.  He defeated Laaheb that day, who went on to win over Godolphin’s Whispering Gallery after that on turf at Ascot, then showed up to finish fourth in last year’s Dubai Sheema Classic.  That form is solid.  Holberg has won off the layoff before, and is likely to get some consideration here, but we’ll side with placing and hope he doesn’t beat us this time.

#11 OTTOMAN EMPIRE is immensely interesting here.  He is 3-from-3 when going turf to all-weather, and there is no sense in thinking he didn’t ridiculously need that last race, coming off a 26 month break. That being said, he ran really well in that race behind Naqshabban where the pace was ludicrously slow.  He overraced a bit in that event, found some trouble going into the first turn and leaving the back of the track, and had every reason to stop after a real stranglehold for much of the race. Still, he stayed on incredibly well for a horse making the comeback he endured, and was beaten five lengths in the process.  The Trakus data from the race shows that he ran through the first 400 metres in 29.96 seconds and the first 800 in 56.31, dawdling fractions.  He had some run in him and still kept on, encouraging enough first up.  Jamie Spencer keeps the mount and we think the pace should suit him a bit more here.  A longshot selection for David Simcock.

#2 MR BROCK, another former Mauritian campaigner beloved by that island nation, gets another shot here off the layoff.  He was admittedly in need of the last run and could grab a slice of the action.  Similarly, #12 SIRVINO ran on well in his first all-weather start last time.  The barn is in good form having landed the Al Shindagha Sprint last week.

1^st – #11 OTTOMAN EMPIRE, 2^nd – #1 HOLBERG, 3^rd – #12 SIRVINO

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Race 3 – $250,000 UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) sponsored by Dubal
1,600 metres, Tapeta

#5 KINGLET was the eye-catcher in the Guineas trial, covering 14 metres more than two-time Carnival winner #1 DARK MATTER, who defeated a legitimate set, including earlier Carnival winner Time Prisoner.  After sending out so many winners thus far, the Singapore train finally slowed last week when Ip Man ran up the course and Captain Obvious ran well but not enough in the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3).

#6 MICKDAAM was running on well at the end last time, and should improve second up for Mike de Kock.  The Tapeta got along with him just fine, which was the major question mark last time.  There is still every reason to think that #9 RASSAM will improve in his third career start, so we can’t write him off that soon.  Still, Kinglet just seems better suited to his stable companion in this spot.  #4 NOOR ZABEEL is an interesting local debuter, bred to absolutely love this trip.  The stable has been in top form, with these connections landing with Factory Time last week.

The bottom line issue with some in here is that the pace should be strong, with Dark Matter, Noor Zabeel, #7 MEHDI, and Rassam all going forward, so realistically, this sets up for someone from off the pace.  Kinglet showed us the most last time, and it makes him a relatively easy pick, in the end.

1^st – #5 KINGLET, 2^nd – #6 MICKDAAM, 3^rd – #4 NOOR ZABEEL

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Race 4 – $175,000 Dubal Potlines Trophy (Rated 100+)
2,435 metres, Turf

The team wanted #2 IRISH FLAME to race in Hong Kong, but that never materialized.  High hopes for him last season, he is reported to be in much better shape this year and had to have a confidence booster in that all-weather win at Kempton, where he was arguably going best in the final stages, really gapping out the second place finisher.  He also carried a significant impost over the rest of the field in that spot, only making the effort look better.  The favourite who finished second to Irish Flame at Kempton was a horse named Treasury Devil, a 3-year-old at the time who had finished five lengths in front of Namibian in the Newmarket Stakes (Listed) when third in April, beaten about three by Godolphin’s Ocean War.  The form is legitimate, and this seems the start of a campaign where they aim to get him back to his best for the Dubai Sheema Classic, and that last performance in November makes us think he is different than before.  The choice.  On his day, he repels the others.

#5 SONGCRAFT puts his unbeaten mark on the line against a quality group, better than he’s ever faced.  The win last time was a good one, but the waters are really much deeper, and the second, fourth, seventh, ninth, and tenth place finishers, just to name a few, have all run back and been unplaced, most importantly Belgian Bill not really going over the Tapeta.  There are reasons to think the run stops at three.

#6 LAAJOOJ was finding his best stride last time when coming on against Mahbooba in a dazzling performance by Mahbooba.  He was closing well last time, and according to Trakus, only Mahbooba went faster in the final 100 metres as Laajooj was at least .41 seconds faster than the rest of the field.  His final 200 metres were recorded in a solid 12.14 seconds, enough to think he’d get a shout here.

#1 JOSHUA TREE ran well at Woodbine against the rail skimming Sarah Lynx who came back and did nothing, and that third behind Danedream sticks out.  But in the end, while we hear good things about his preparations, his best win came against an inferior bunch when winning in Toronto in 2010.  He’ll need the race, presumably, and could grab a slice of the pie, but nothing more in our opinion.

The extended rail, out 12 metres, could only aid #8 JEDI in stealing this one.  We don’t think that happens, but he could stick around for a slice if he slowed it down as much as possible.

1^st – #2 IRISH FLAME, 2^nd – #6 LAAJOOJ, 3^rd – #5 SONGCRAFT

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Race 5 – $200,000 Firebreak Stakes (G3), sponsored by Dubal
1,600 metres, Tapeta

Will there be a new course record set in this race as Skysurfers did in it last year?  There are nine horses in the race and ALL of them have shown some willingness to go forward.  #2 SHAMALGAN actually broke well and was on the pace last time out in Milan when well beaten by Dick Turpin, but before that, he’s run on from behind.  That last race was ludicrously fast and if he settles back in this race, we have to think he’ll have a shout in the end as, if for no other reason, a function of pace.

We are incredibly pleased to see #7 BOLD SILVANO in this race, and not the Maktoum Challenge.  Admittedly, he’s been a difficult horse to keep just right, making a single start since his win in the 2010 Durban July (G1).  This has been the point for him for some time.  Before the season, trainer Mike de Kock said the following: “He is extremely well and has been in full work for a while.  He is doing what we’re expecting of him and is one of our Dubai World Cup hopefuls.”

The plan is to go from here to the Maktoum Challenge – R3 (G1) and then on to the Dubai World Cup, giving the son of Silvano two solid preps.  In classic form, we know that there are bigger goals, but deKock’s comments are bullish given his preparation, and the camp should also figure this is an easier spot than the big race.  If he can settle in some meaningful way, which might be possible breaking in mid-pack and not going two turns, others seem generally faster away.  He was on the front-end last year in his only appearance, but the cutback to 1,600 makes us think he will settle back.  Otherwise, he could get run into the ground.  We’ll side with the camp that recognizes Soumillon can read the form guide enough to recognize others will go forward faster.

#6 DERBAAS is presumably the top horse in the Al Raihe barn, and he has to be considered on the improve off two starts from the long layoff.  He’s another who we think can stay on and hang around when the going gets tough, and potentially pick up the pieces if the returning choice stumbles.

We’re very excited to see the return of #4 ECLIPTIC, and he could do just about anything.  One of the few non-Godolphin or Maktoum runners in the barn of Mahmoud Al Zarooni, he’s any type on this surface, but regardless, is bred for brilliance.  We’ll see how he gets over the Tapeta and wait, but the presence of Dettori will generate plenty of interest.  We’re willing to take the chance against him with some question marks.

1^st – #7 BOLD SILVANO, 2^nd – #6 DERBAAS, 3^rd – #2 SHAMALGAN

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Race 6 – $250,000 Maktoum Challenge – R2 (G2), sponsored by Dubal
1,900 metres, Tapeta

There are reasons to like #5 MASTER OF HOUNDS in this race, especially as he was running on like a shot against Musir in the first edition of this race.  He also covered extra ground, going nine metres more than Musir according to the Trakus data, and galloped out well past the comeback winner with gusto, partly negating the three length margin.  Overall, though, as we’ll get to, the pace just might not be 100 percent in his favour.

#1 PRINCE BISHOP is the horse we like most.  He won effortlessly in his return to action here earlier in the campaign, his second consecutive ridiculously easy win since being gelded.  This is a class test for him, and that much is clearly obvious considering his past, but he does get a three kilo weight break from his last race, which can’t hurt, and more so, a pace setup that is likely to help.  There isn’t a ton of early speed, which we discuss below, and it should have him in the right place to pounce yet again.  As of now, to us, he is Godolphin’s best chance, even if Frankie is riding #2 DUBAI PRINCE.

Overall, it might seem slightly strange Dettori gets this mount (and frankly, how he is rated 113 over Biondetti at 109, is beyond us), but it is what it is, and we refuse to put too much stock in the Godolphin jockey assignments.  Bottom line – look at the form between the two horses and suggest to us that Dubai Prince is better than Prince Bishop in this spot.  On paper, it can’t be done.  So, there are reasons to think Godolphin specifically want Frankie on this horse – perhaps he is tough to handle, requires all the past experience of Frankie, or something else.  Any way you look at it, if he wins, he beats us here.  We like Prince Bishop.

We don’t have an absolutely single confirmed speed horse here to try and visualize a strong pace, but expect #11 PISCO SOUR, #10 SUBMARINER, and #9 HAATHEQ to all go forward.  Haatheq is the most in-form of this bunch, and probably deserves the greatest chance to seal the deal.  Richard Hills will try to slow him down in all likelihood and hope to see it out.  Pisco Sour gets the rarely seen black cap for Godolphin and likely needs this race, and maybe another.  While they should race prominently, we aren’t expecting land speed records, and it might keep Prince Bishop in the best position to pounce when necessary, and dull the run of some other closers.

1^st – #1 PRINCE BISHOP, 2^nd – #9 HAATHEQ, 3^rd – #5 MASTER OF HOUNDS

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Race 7 – $175,000 Dubal Trophy (Rated 100+)
1,800 metres, Turf

Yet again, going with a common theme, we identify race to likely have a relatively solid early gallop.  #6 IGUAZU FALLS is speed, but was well-rated last time by Xavier Ziani, who defeated a next-out winner in Krypton Factor, who was also second in last week’s Al Shindagha Sprint (G3).  #7 MORAN GRA will race forward, as will #11 WAR MONGER and presumably #8 NAVAJO CHIEF, especially from his rail draw.

#1 MUTAHADEE is fast, and our best bet of the day.  He recorded the fastest final furlong from any turf race over 1,600 metres in the last two seasons at Meydan when winning here on January 20 by four lengths over Viscount Nelson.  Even more so, he surprised Mike de Kock, who reported he “hadn’t done much” in trackwork.  His final 200 metres, according to Trakus, was 10.54 seconds, which came after a 400-metre segment (from the 600m to 200m pole) that was recorded in 22.48 seconds.  He gets a wide draw, but with several clear front-runners, don’t think it will do him much harm as he should save some ground by the time they make the long run to the turn.

#10 ANAEROBIO ran on well last time second off the monumental layoff and stands as a strong chance to make this a prime effort, even if it might not be good enough to get his stable companion.

It’s been a long time since #9 ROCHDALE has been on turf in this emirate, having raced in Abu Dhabi on the green a few times.  He has some back form on the stuff, even if it was way back.  We think he gets a shout for a minor placing with the weight break.

The public’s interest will likely be split, with #3 SECRECY getting a good share of attention, and he deserves it with 15 placings from 18 starts.  He couldn’t match Musir last time, understandably, and has moved forward when second up in the past.  He’ll be in the mix and we wouldn’t be surprised by a win, but we just like Mutahadee too much.

#4 MASTEROFTHEROLLS would get more consideration from us if we held that last race in higher esteem, but we don’t.  He ran on well and got beaten up the rail.  He won’t surprise us with a placing, but think the winner is likely to be too good.

1^st – #1 MUTAHADEE, 2^nd – #3 SECRECY, 3^rd – #10 ANAEROBIO

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2011-2012 UAE season-to-date: 209 selections – 50 first, 39 second, 19 third (23.9% first, 51.7% top three)

Gamilati continued her brilliant run with ease, landing the UAE 1,000 Guineas (Listed), her second easy win of the season.  After taking the Guineas trial in January, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum indicated she would likely run in the Guineas proper and then head off for the UK.  That, however, could change after His Highness changed his tune following a score with the greatest of ease.

Hitchens (outside, below) supported his backers as Silvestre DeSousa made it a double on the day, taking the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3) over the in-form Krypton Factor (inside, stripes).  The Singapore train came to an end when Ip Man went awry in the first race of the day and Captain Obvious ran well in this event, but could only manage fourth.  Presumably, the solid performances in this sprint race, a prep for the Dubai Golden Shaheen, will move forward to the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) on Super Saturday.

Racing continues at Meydan on Thursday evening with the most prestigious night of the Carnival yet, featuring the Firebreak Stakes (G3), the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3), and the Maktoum Challenge – R2 (G2).  Jebel Ali races on Friday and Abu Dhabi next Sunday.

’11-12 UAE season-to-date: 202 selections – 48 first, 36 second, 18 third (24% winners, 51% top three)

Both the first two finishers are owned by King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz & Sons, with the winner trained by Bader Resaque while Fly Down is trained by Baden Al Subaie.  Holding an entry in the Dubai World Cup, it would be no surprise to see Fly Down back at Meydan. Kreem, by Hurricane Run out of the Rainbow Quest mare, En Public, holds an entry in the 3,200-metre Dubai Gold Cup (G3) and would make plenty of sense to appear on behalf of the Kingdom.

Early pacesetters and former Dubai Carnival/World Cup programme participants El Amarillista and Amor De Pobre kept an attentive pace before Fly Down moved to the lead with stablemate Sairoor with less than 600 metres to run.  The move, however, came much too soon, and leads to an entirely different discussion concerning European jockey bookings on a dirt course.  Fly Down, under Johnny Murtagh, was known as the type that prefers being ridden from well off the pace, but in this spot, he breaks fast, settles better than mid-division, and found himself in front much sooner than is his normal running syle.  Meanwhile, Kreem, under Roberto Perez, gets the trip more typical of Fly Down, circling horses wide around the far turn, angling into contention, and running down stablemate Fly Down to win by a neck, despite lugging-in through much of the extended drive.

DubaiRaceNight.com thanks Ali Dammas for posting video of the race to Youtube.  Fly Down races wearing saddle towel #6 and a black cap. Kreem has a blue saddletowel, racing as #3.  Leaving the backstretch, Kreem is 11th on the rail with a white cap.

’11-12 UAE season-to-date: 196 selections – 46 first, 35 second, 18 third (24% winners, 51% top three)

Fly Down, third in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) behind Blame and Zenyatta when with Nick Zito, and running into all sorts of trouble in the first turn of the 2011 Dubai World Cup (G1), is the anticipated favourite in the field of 18.  Johnny Murtagh will be in Riyadh to ride for trainer Baden Al Subaie.  Owned by King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz and sons, Fly Down emerged victorious over the same trip in the Crown Prince Cup (G2) on 6 January, winning by 5.5 lengths.  The second, third, fifth, sixth, eleventh, twelfth, fourteenth, and sixteenth finishers from that race all come back to run in this event.

The two that would draw the most interest are former Brian Meehan trainee Robust Wish, second in the Crown Prince Cup and third home, Step In Time.  The former was two from nine on all-weather in the UK before shipping to Saudi in late 2010, and will be ridden by Christophe Lemaire.  Meanwhile, the latter now races for Prince Faisal bin Khaled bin Abdulaziz, who finished third after suffering a wide trip from gate 18 in the Crown Prince Cup.  Step in Time is by Giant’s Causeway out of Cash Run, winner of the 1999 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and used to be with Mark Johnston in the UK.

In past years, the domestic edition of the King’s Cup has yielded some faster races, often leading to the questioning of the quality of the result from the imported race.  As such, the winner of the last two King’s Cups have not traveled to Dubai while some hard luck runners did make the trip, most recently being Amor De Pobre in the 2010 edition.

Muller (racing in Saudi as Alsaqr), has drawn post 17 for the imported King’s Cup, and was fourth in the 2009 Dubai World Cup, beaten nineteen lengths by Well Armed.  Paris Perfect, his stablemate, was third in the race, representing the best finishes for Saudi Arabia in the world’s richest race.  Most recently, Muller finished a distant 16th in the Crown Prince Cup as a newly-turned 9-year-old.

DubaiRaceNight.com will post video of the race when it is made available on YouTube via our Saudi contacts.

CLICK HERE for the Form Guide from the Emirates Racing Authority
CLICK HERE for the past performances (US-Style), courtesy AmWest Entertainment.

Race 1 – $120,000 Freehold Trophy Handicap (Rated 100-110)
1,600 metres – Tapeta

UPDATE – #6 KAVANGO was our top selection but is now a non-runner.

#2 DISA LEADER deserved to get a run, and now it seems a test to determine whether or not he gets over the Tapeta.  Running in this spot, at all, would be an indication he trains well enough.  He could be a Godolphin Mile (G2) runner if this turns out well, and given that deKock will have Bold Silvano in the Firebreak Stakes (G3) next week, going her makes more sense.

The same can be said for #3 ZANZAMAR, whom deKock identified as having had joint surgery after last year’s Carnival.  He did his best running here when fresh, having found trouble in both of his starts before a fourth in the UAE Derby.  This barn doesn’t have much else going tonight, so you think the winner could come from either chance.  Zanzamar’s history when fresh does go in his favour, and given the scratch to Kavango, has up put him on top.

#13 DANDY BOY has seemed a viable chance for the Godolphin Mile (G2) as his rating really isn’t likely to do enough to get into the Dubai Duty Free (G1).  Once again, knowing the toughness expected in the Firebreak could be why he goes in this spot.  He’s an all-weather winner at Dundalk but could just plod along again here.  A tough sell.

#14 RED GULCH could improve second up and has a history of a spotty record.  He’s drawn well for this trip and races closer to the pace, which could be the better spot to be, and is our main knock on Zanzamar.

#11 REEM gets back on the Tapeta and makes her third start off the layoff.  She ran credibly enough in the Cape Verde to make us believe she does have some good form in her, but is it going to be back on the Tapeta?  She was drawn wide last time when up the track against Barbecue Eddie, now getting a middle tier draw.  She’s shown pace before and it could keep her in the vanguard.  We’ll see.

Overall, this might be the toughest race of the Carnival to decipher and we’d wouldn’t be surprised with any result.  As such, take your pick.  We’ll readily admit we have little to offer in the way of a firm opinion.

1st –  #3 ZANZAMAR, 2nd - #2 DISA LEADER, 3rd – #13 DANDY BOY

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Race 2 – $100,000 Meydan Classic Trial sponsored by Xpress for 3-year-olds
1,400 metres – Turf

How do you go against #2 IP MAN in this spot?  Another win for Singapore seems likely in a race that, surprisingly, does not have any Godolphin interests.  He’s in form, drawn relatively well, has a smashing win over grass at Kranji, and likely to get a similar trip as last time, even if on the green.  He’ll be a heavy favourite.

We expect #3 NEED TO KNOW to improve vastly when on the grass, the gelded son out of a Group 1 winning mare, on grass.  He had quite a buzz about him on debut but was marooned in a wide stall and still ran on well, despite the fact the class of the race was significantly less than the one he faces today.  Improvement is likely.

#12 RIGHT TO DREAM deserves a chance to improve getting back on the grass.  His last dismal effort came when off a 5.5 month rest and over the Tapeta.  Now on the turf, his back experience could keep him in the mix, plus he gets blinkers for the first time.

#14 STRAIT OF ZANZIBAR is bred impeccably but was another that didn’t get over the Tapeta too well first up and gets a chance to give it another go on grass.

1^st – #2 IP MAN, 2^nd – #3 NEED TO KNOW, 3^rd – #12 RIGHT TO DREAM
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Race 3 – $250,000 UAE 2,000 Guineas (Listed), sponsored by Gulf News
1,600 metres – Tapeta

Let the record show that this race has had a way of producing some longshot winners, especially in recent editions save last year: 2008 – Cocoa Beach (over heavily-backed Godolphin charge Fiesta Lady), 2009 – So Shiny (over heavily-backed Godolphin charge Devotee), and 2010 – Siyaadah (over heavily-backed Raihana).  Last year’s win from Mahbooba was one of the rare instances of a favourite getting the job done.

Deservedly, that status goes to #6 GAMILATI once again.  She deserves the favouritism after defeating #2 ALSINDI on the up-and-up last time, when both presumably needed the run.  Both could go better in here over a truer pace, but especially for Gamilati, who was deemed likely to be done after this race, and prepared for classics back in the UK.

We saw #3 MOON SPUN get some work in on the Tapeta and the connections were plenty happy with what they saw.  She’s been happy with her surroundings and could be a welcome addition to the barn.  It’s tough to get creative in this spot.

1^st – #6 GAMILATI, 2^nd – #2 ALSINDI, 3^rd – #3 MOON SPUN
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Race 4 – $175,000 Classifieds Trophy Handicap (Rated 100+)
1,000 metres – Turf

#7 NOCTURNAL AFFAIR just missed catching Addictive Dream, who goes in the next race, on the opening night of the Carnival over this trip and course.  His performance was spot on and he stands to get a trip very similar to what he had last time.  David Marnane identified that all of his horses were likely to come on for the run, and this guy, along with Dandy Boy in the first, stand as significant chances.  It’s a tough, tough race, but he’ll be there in some form at the finish.

We’ve tipped #10 INTERNATIONALDEBUT the last two times he ran, and won’t fall into that trap again.  If he wins, our loss.  Presumably, both he and the mare, #11 INVINCIBLE ASH, are much better on grass, but it’s been tough getting them in front in the desert.

#2 IVER BRIDGE LAD get saddled with 60 kilos, but does get a break off that with the apprentice allowance going to Michael O’Connell.  He galloped out past Captain Obvious last time, which proved to us that he is in form and ready to do some damage.  His best performances come in spotty patches, but when he went Tapeta to turf here last season, he stepped up in a big way, second when getting plenty of weight from JJ The Jet Plane.  This guy will be heard from at some point, and it could be Friday.

#6 HUMIDOR deserves a shout after a decent run when slightly bothered at the start, and then significantly hampered when getting ready to let down last time out.  Humidor’s final 200 metres went in 11.62 seconds, according to Trakus, fastest in the field, and he had to swing totally across the back of horses late in running before getting clear to lay that run out.  He’s beaten Addictive Dream in the past, over this trip, so you know he has it in him.  He did that when third off a layoff last year at Goodwood, and goes second up here.  If you argue he needed that last race, he’s in with a chance here.  A narrow selection.

We’ll be shocked if #5 DAFEEF steps up off the layoff and wins.  He has good form, but over some longer trips, and it makes us somewhat skeptical of him in this spot.

1^st – #6 HUMIDOR, 2^nd – #7 NOCTURNAL AFFAIR, 3^rd – #2 IVER BRIDGE LAD

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Race 5 – $200,000 Al Shindagha Sprint (G3), sponsored by Gulf News
1,200 metres – Tapeta

UPDATE – #4 ADDICTIVE DREAM is a non-runner

Call us crazy, but after a certain point, you have to think the Singapore train stops, right?  We’ve been off it all year, until picking Ip Man to win the second race on Friday, and since we’ve missed the many spoils, and it has to stop at some point, we’re probably going to be on the wrong side of it in that race.  Oh well.

#2 ALO PURA must absolutely be worked for a better trip.  She was stifled in the last race won by #11 CAPTAIN OBVIOUS and still hung in gamely, beaten less than three lengths.  She’s still the record holder over the course which seems to be yielding faster final times than ever before.  To like her even more, she gets a race that is likely to have a significant pace to run at – #3 KRYPTON FACTOR, a winner last week, #4 ADDICTIVE DREAM (now a non-runner), and #6 MUJAAZEF are all likely to go forward, which should string this field over more ground, giving a greater chance to those running on from the rear.

Captain Obvious will live up to his billing here and absolutely deserves a shout from us in some respect.  The last race was good, and he got the jump on the rest in a jumbled scramble.  The fact that #9 HITCHENS was still running on in the end was a good thing, clocking the fastest final 400 metres last time in 22.86 seconds, according to Trakus.  You can view all the Trakus charts dating to the beginning of December at Meydan HERE.  The average closing 400-metre split from the last two seasons at Meydan, in 1200-metre races, is 23.63 seconds .  So, considering how well Hitchens got on over the course, and was flying at the end with the dawdling pace, makes us think he might be farther back, and still have a big kick in the tank, enough that 22.86 seconds would have easily slung him past the winner last time if he had been forced to go a faster pace then.

Picking just one horse here is brutally difficult, because we think all three in our top three are viable winning chances.  The timing numbers suggest Hitchens is in great form.  Let’s see if he can go one better.

1^st – #9 HITCHENS, 2^nd – #2 ALO PURA, 3^rd – #11 CAPTAIN OBVIOUS

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Race 6 – $150,000 Tabloid Trophy Handicap (Rated 95+)
2,810 metres – Turf

Here we get out first real shot at a prep for the Dubai Gold Cup (G3), the newest addition to the Dubai World Cup programme.

The pace is likely coming from #2 ELECTROLYSER and it looks like it will be his for as long as he can sustain it.  The portable rail is out 12 metres, which could help him extend away even more.  Winless since Ascot in September 2009, he’s kept top company over these extended trips, but with really limited success, and that makes him tough to back in here.

#1 FOX HUNT draws some immediate interest having been seventh in the 2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup (G1), only 2.5 lengths behind winner, and Dubai Sheema Classic possible, Dunaden.  He was a UK shipper that completed the first seven, and earned a major weight break on that occasion, plus was coming off a six week break where he was a winner in Germany.  Formerly with Mark Johnston, we know this guy loves these extended trips, a winner at Epsom and the Royal Ascot meeting before a second over this trip at York.  Back up in the weights and off the layoff, he has question marks.

#3 AVERROES has recency on his side with an easy win here over this trip on Tapeta on New Year’s Eve, and also was a Shergar Cup winner at Ascot in August.  He’s down in the weights for this second off a four month break, that also finds him at the height of the ratings in his career.  That last race was so easy, as everyone came home well-spaced, but the competition here is definitely tougher.

#4 HAPPY VALLEY was probably in need of the last race, and was reportedly in better form this year than last, but that certainly didn’t show last time.  Still, he stayed on well and wasn’t beaten a massive space.  He offers some minor placing interest as they try to find out if they have a Gold Cup horse here.

#12 TANFEETH was very impressive defeating Tahaamah in significantly lesser company last time and will find the waters much deeper.  That being said, he ran on so well from the back, and gets a four kilo break, that he becomes intriguing in this spot.

#11 MANJAKANI has slowly improved over time here in Dubai, with two very good finishes in recent Carnival starts.  He seems worthy of some placing interest.

In the end, it’s incredibly difficult to fault the form of Fox Hunt.  While he’s done quite a bit of traveling in the last few months, we think that if he can show a sliver of his top class company here, he’s the winner.

1^st – #1 FOX HUNT, 2^nd – #3 AVERROES, 3^rd – #2 ELECTROLYSER
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2011-2012 UAE season-to-date: 190 selections – 43 first, 35 second, 18 third (23% winners, 51% top three)