Analysis for 2012 DWCC Night 14 (Saturday)

We offer a slightly abbreviated analysis for the final night of the 2012 Dubai World Cup Carnival.  Best of luck!

Race 1 – $15,000 Alpha Maiden
1,400 metres – Tapeta

We tipped #3 GLENLEVEN in a Jebel Ali maiden on February 10, but he scratched out of there.  Richard Mullen has options, and he lands here.  These connections struck with firster winner Farrier earlier in the campaign, and the breeding is right for a win.  The dam has dropped early winner Sophisticated Lady, a winner early in her career.  #8 NABAH is eligible to improve second-up.  She was bothered a bit in the last, but should come on for that run.  There isn’t much to go on with #7 MAHROSA, but the weight break should only help.  Her pedigree suggests she wouldn’t have had a great time on the grass, anyway in her start last season.

1^st – #3 GLENLEVEN, 2^nd – #8 NABAH, 3^rd – #7 MAHROSA

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Race 2 – $20,000 Scene Handicap (Rated 60-80)
1,400 metres – Tapeta

#11 FURNACE is in a solid spot here, drawn inside, and handicapped similarly to last time.  He’s one of the few pacesetters in here, and the drop back to 1400 should help.  Without the likes of Rutland Boy, he seems the type to go on with it from the front and potentially see out the trip. #13 ENJOY TODAY and #2 MAATH GOOL both must be considered after their runs last time, but the pace might be the tell tale in support of the top pick.

1^st – #11 FURNACE, 2^nd – #2 MAATH GOOL, 3^rd – #13 ENJOY TODAY

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Race 3 – $20,000 GulfNews.com Handicap (Rated 60-80)
1,900 metres – Tapeta

We wanted all of #10 PROFONDO ROSSO when entered two weeks back, but he didn’t draw in off the reserves.  We get him here, and with a decent draw.  He lost a ton of ground over this trip last time, and when he can secure a groundsaving trip, he’s significantly more dangerous.  #12 HADBA finally got it done and now gets winners – she has been on the improve but must overcome the wide draw.  #13 MASAALEK will make your heart pump as he often flashes from the tail and his flashes of closing brilliance are enough to include him in the mix.

1^st – #10 PROFONDO ROSSO, 2^nd – #13 MASAALEK, 3^rd – #12 HADBA

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Race 4 – $20,000 Friday Handicap (Rated 75-95)
1,200 metres – Tapeta

#2 HAJOUM is going to have to overcome the wide draw, but his finish last time, considering the early pace, was strong enough for us to think he could wheel back in two weeks and do it again.  He’s been well matched in these types of events, and was a course and distance winner before.  His wide draws have been the undoing, but three of them in his last five attempts, but we’ll go with it this time.  #1 CINDERKAMP had every right to run on last time and the longshot did him in.  He’ll have another chance, but without such a hot tempo.

1^st – #2 HAJOUM, 2^nd – #1 CINDERKAMP, 3^rd – #5 CELTIC KING

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Race 5 – $25,000 GNB Handicap (Rated 85-98)
2,200 metres – Tapeta

#4 TAHAAMAH eluded us until we completely tossed him last time and he ran them down off a very wide trip.  It won’t be that wide on Saturday, or at least we don’t project it to be, and if everything remains right, he’s the pick to repeat.  #13 BAWADI does get some added interest with the weight break.  The trip might be beyond him slightly, but is well handicapped to turn the tables.  #5 JUTLAND won well last time and switches back to Tapeta, where his third two starts back is very competitive with these.

1^st – #4 TAHAAMAH, 2^nd – #5 JUTLAND, 3^rd – #13 BAWADI

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Race 6 – $25,000 GulfNews Handicap Rated 85-98)
1,600 metres – Tapeta

#1 CAPITAL ATTRACTION hasn’t let us astray over the one-turn trips, and think he might be able to do it again with another mid-division trip.  Things get much tougher for #10 RUTLAND BOY who dominated two weeks ago, but there is much more speed in here with the likes of #2 FAMOUS WARRIOR and potentially #7 AL FARAHIDI, plus a few others.  Rutland Boy was very, very good, but the pace might play against him over this trip.  #11 QANOON offers us some interest getting on the Tapeta.

1^st – #1 CAPITAL ATTRACTION, 2^nd – #10 RUTLAND BOY, 3^rd – #11 QANOON

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’11-12 UAE season-to-date: 307 selections – 67 first, 55 second, 32 third (21.8% first, 50.2% top three)