RACE 4 - $2,000,000 UAE Derby (G2), sponsored by Al Naboodah Group – 1,900 meters, Tapeta
TOP CONTENDERS
Everyone, especially American Kentucky Derby fanatics, want to talk about #5 MENDIP here considering his blowaway win in the Al Bastakiya. Talk about it all you want: it was a slow race, with a perfect trip. It was the SLOWEST of all the 1,900 meters races since the course was opened after the first two weekends of racing, when the Tapeta was handled in a more conservative fashion. Given that Mendip blew away the field in a race that was, in my opinion, not truly-run, gives me great pause when he has to handle quality older competition in #9 MUSIR and #3 RAIHANA.
Speak of the homebred duo, these two are the glitter in the eye of Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum after their wins in the UAE 2000 Guineas and UAE Oaks, respectively. Musir certainly seems the faster of the pair and his last out win gave me the impression that he is improving. I was glad to see the connections wait for this race as the son of Redoute’s Choice stands to get my full support.
NEED TO IMPROVE FOR A CHANCE
#4 DELLA BARBA sat just off that Mendip pace and held on for second by a slim margin. He is another who could continue to improve, but the pace setup will be the most interesting angle to consider. I’m not holding out for a breakthrough.
#6 SIYAADAH had a grand ride in the UAE 2000 Guineas to land the upset, but to me, if Raihana was placed differently in that event, we wouldn’t even be talking about her chances. That said, she has shown an ability to get over the track and run her race when asked. She could freak again and take advantage of a few others finding trouble. Of the other Godolphin runners, #7 FROZEN POWER comes in with solid finishes behind Musir and then upped his form with a win in the Meydan Classic. #2 ENAK, also, has decent placing form, but little else to suggest a massive improvement to beat Musir.
#10 MAKAANAH comes from the every improving Saudi camp, and one could believe she can hold a placing chance given the solid barn performance locally.
LONGSHOTS
#8 UNCLE TOM, #1 OROVESO, #13 TIMELY JAZZ and #14 MR CRAZY BOY have had flashes of competition in the past, grabbing some minor slices here and there. In fact, I thought Uncle Tom had a great chance in the Al Bastakiya given the way he was running down Mendip, but the pace dawdled and zapped him of that chance. So of this bunch, he holds the greatest chance for a placing, and possibly even pulling the huge shocker. #12 SOLID CHOICE will serve to ensure a good gallop for Mike De Kock’s other pair, giving this race a chance to be run in a true fashion.
FINAL UAE DERBY ANALYSIS
To me, Musir is a massive choice to land the spoils for the popular local team. Hard to see it going another way. He is the shortest priced winner of the night, or at least, should be, as long as the Mendip camp doesn’t go crazy.
1st – #9 MUSIR, 2nd – #8 UNCLE TOM, 3rd – #5 MENDIP, 4th – #4 DELLA BARBA
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3 – $1,000,000 Godolphin Mile (G2), sponsored by Etisalat – 1,600 meters, Tapeta
TOP CONTENDERS
#10 FORGOTTEN VOICE was mishandled in his last run, admitted trainer Jeremy Noseda. Jockey Ryan Moore had the traditional closer placed in a more forward position and Noseda made it clear that he was used too soon to get that early position. Acknowledging those tactics failed, a reversion to his race in the Maktoum Challenge – R1 (G3) on opening night of the Meydan season could put him on top. For our sake, we will do just that and assume he will make one late move. It was our opinion that had that race been slightly longer, and the stretch troubles not have existed, Forgotten Voice would have stormed past Gloria De Campeao, and it took us off him in the Maktoum Challenge. That being said, Gloria De Campeao ran a cracker in that race over 2,000 meters and gives more reason to look at him later in the card. There are no American raiders here this year – a local challenger is most likely to win, and he seems best.
Godolphin’s #11 DESERT PARTY was incredibly impressive in his 1,200 meters prep, a trip we thought would be much too short for him. How good is he? To me, that is the question of the race. He ran a strong race behind Regal Ransom in the UAE Derby and confirmed he gets over the Tapeta in fine order with that last win. Second off the injury layoff is the angle and I’m just not willing to give him the top tip, even off the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) win. He needs to prove it to me…again.
There was nothing wrong with #2 CAT JUNIOR last time out as he adopted completely new tactics in the Burj Nahaar (G3) and ran forward under the guise of blinkers. He has always been highly regarded but often failed in the bigger spots. The blinkers may have given this well-meant son of Storm Cat a chance to land a big prize. Well-beaten in this race last year, it is clear the Tapeta suits him and I see no reason to think he won’t be in the frame. Cat Junior’s win last time set the mark for the fastest mile at Meydan and anyway you look at it, he should be the favorite.
SLEEPER CHANCES
#1 KALAHARI GOLD could be a sleeper pick in here off a near Jebel Hatta (G2) win when second to Imbongi and ran into the Alexandros buzzsaw in the Al Rashidiya (G3). That last race though, to me, was a top effort, and others in the race may have retained freshness. #12 SKYSURFERS ran to our expectations when fifth last time, thinking he was sure to regress off that monstrous win over Eagle Mountain. What do we get from the son of E Dubai in this race? Too much too soon, still? That is how we side.
#7 CONSUL GENERAL disappointed us last time but still ran a game third for the third consecutive race at Meydan. While we keep thinking that he has a big race in him, how much longer should one wait? This son of Selkirk definitely has a shot at the placings, but a big shocker is unlikely.
Mike De Kock is single-handed here with #6 LUCKY FIND, who has slowly progressed through the Carnival. He landed a handicap on February 25 against a half-decent field but finds tougher company and a win might be asking too much of the 6-year-old.
#14 GREEN COAST makes his seventh start of the season and managed just one win despite three other placings, including a solid second behind Cat Junior in the prep. Trainer Doug Watson loves this horse as he always gives it a go, but, like Consul General, a placing is the best we would expect.
LONGSHOTS
The stakes get higher here and his win over #8 VESUVE failed to impress when that one came back with a sixth in the Burj Nahaar. Lucky Find has some back class in him, but it is tough to project that coming out here. #4 CALMING INFLUENCE has gone well on the Tapeta but is another who seems to lack the class edge in this spot, regressing after his big win over inferior competition two back. Former South African runner #3 LE DRAKKAR had some great running lines there but has not upped his form since being in Dubai.
Japan’s #5 GLORIOUS NOAH won a single race that gained him some attention and we’ve seen nothing since to garner attention in this event. #9 JET EXPRESS was a late entrant to the field and so we mildly question intent, but he has run some really big races in the Emirates.
FINAL ANALYSIS
One of two ways – either Desert Party is back and better than ever, landing the big 1,200 meters win and using this as a stepping stone to Godolphin prominence, or he fails to provide the same explosive kick with his second race in a month, following the 10-month injury break. We side with the latter, and use Forgotten Voice on top with a few prices underneath.
1st – #10 FORGOTTEN VOICE, 2nd – #4 CAT JUNIOR, 3rd – #7 CONSUL GENERAL, 4th – #6 LUCKY FIND
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2 – $1,000,000 Al Quoz Sprint (G3), sponsored by Emirates NBD - 1,200 meters, turf
I am not going to sugar-coat this analysis. This is a Group 3 race…and these are Group 3 horses. I DO NOT have a strong opinion here, at all. Of the entries, I believe the following eight horses are win candidates: #3 SIROCCO BREEZE, #6 JOY AND FUN, #7 FRAVASHI, #8 CALIFORNIA FLAG, #9 WAR ARTIST, #14 STAR CROWNED, #15 TERRIFIC CHALLENGE.
I will be immensely interested to see how they end up running this race, with some horses possibly splitting the field, and it could leave #8 CALIFORNIA FLAG on an island by himself in the middle, with young Joe Talamo not knowing where to send him. He was NOT 100 percent in Hong Kong last year and still ran a solid race. If he attaches with the main bunch, he could absolutely land the victory.
Godolphin’s #7 FRAVASHI stands a big chance, going third off the layoff, returning to his preferred surface, and with big-race Ahmed Ajtebi on board. He is two-for-three over the trip and take note how well he ran third off the layoff back in Australia. He is a juicy price on the morning line at 40-1, although we have him at 25-1.
Locally prepared #14 STAR CROWNED and #15 TERRIFIC CHALLENGE hold massive claims here, with the latter holding grand form on the back end of his past performances over turf, and really finding form lately with the big win at Jebel Ali. Star Crowned is game as ever and has landed in the placings at big prices. His run behind #16 JUDD STREET was quite solid.
#3 SIROCCO BREEZE has a feast or famine mentality, but ran on quite well in that last event, toting 137 pounds. He gets a handy break in this race and to quote someone from the press room, “I think it will take a seven furlong-type horse to win this six furlong race.” Maybe. Considering how lightly raced he is, asking him to make his third start in two months could be troublesome considering he had made a total of three starts in the preceeding 13 months.
#6 JOY AND FUN doesn’t win often, but has been knocking heads with some of the best, well, Sacred Kingdom, really. He could run a big one to get a solid placing, or freak for more. This is, overall, a class drop for him. Meanwhile, #9 WAR ARTIST is back on his preferred surface and wasn’t right last time. Now going third up, he could revert to his solid winning form from the summer and land a share.
#11 FINJAAN has some solid wins on his mark but has to freak to win the big one. #12 SIR GERRY has decent all-weather form from home and has great placings from 2008. I am just not expecting his non-stop campaign to help him here.
#13 DOHASA has improved off the layoff but leaves me thinking he just isn’t with this bunch. #16 JUDD STREET leaves me wanting more as his key race was last time, and I doubt a form continuance.
#10 PRINCE SHAUN could run a big one to grab a placing as the barn reports he is doing quite well. Staying a game second to Leahurst might get him a check on the surface change.
#5 OUR GIANT was cast in his stall prior to the Mahab Al Shimaal and is being asked for too much, too soon – or at least it would appear. If he runs a monster race first up, we’ll cite his back class. I just doubt that he can be that ready in his first start since July. He is a half to Rocket Man! #4 ALL SILENT has not looked that good on track and might be swimming deep early. Both #1 MARIOL and #2 ASSET seem place fillers.
1st – #7 FRAVASHI, 2nd – #8 CALIFORNIA FLAG, 3rd – #9 WAR ARTIST, 4th – #14 STAR CROWNED