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2013 DWCC Night 7 Analysis

Below is our analysis for Thursday’s racing at Meydan, the seventh meeting of the 2013 Dubai World Cup Carnival.

CLICK HERE for the form guide, courtesy Emirates Racing Authority
CLICK HERE for past performances, courtesy AmWest Entertainment.

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Race 1 – $40,000 Bani Yas for purebred Arabians (G2), 1,400 metres – All-weather

Something has to give in this event.  #7 BURNING FANCY, #13 TM SUPER BIRD, and #9 THAKIF all go forward and have had their best performances in races making all the pace.  Who gives in first?  #1 QUITE A SHOW has shown a penchant for going forward as well but seemingly found some versatility in other instances.  The setup could benefit him most to get the trip – he’ll definitely save ground from the rail.  #11 RAKHA could run-on well from a tracking position and #2 AF ALGHABRA is always a danger.  This is a fascinating purebred Arabian event.

1st – #1 QUITE A SHOW, 2nd – #9 THAKIF, 3rd – #7 BURNING FANCY

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Race 2 – $175,000 Al Naboodah Commercial Group Trophy Handicap (Rated 100+), 2,000 metres – Turf

There should be no question where the early pace is coming from as #4 STARBOARD absolutely goes from the front – that’s what he knows and that’s what he’ll do.  The better question is whether anyone tries to match him on the pace.  #2 MIKHAIL GLINKA does most of his best running from the front, and #6 SALON SOLDIER has found himself there as well.  Mikhail Glinka’s run last time out was solid enough when top-weight and he likely gets the added ground he wants.

#1 AWAIT THE DAWN is subject to substantial improvement in this spot.  He ran the second-fastest final 200-metre split in the Maktoum Challenge – Round 2 (G2) last time out despite only finishing ninth. He was unusually off the pace emerging from the layoff and just stutter-stepped the start to keep him off the pace. While we could easily find him back on the Tapeta later, progression back on grass is well within range, especially considering the improvement we’ve seen from Mike de Kock runners in their second start.

The interesting horse to us is #5 SO BEAUTIFUL.  He tried the Tapeta last time and while it shows he finished 11th, honestly, it wasn’t a terrible run.  The form from that race is going to continue to be difficult to interpret given the slow early and mid-race pace, where the first three horses throughout finished that way.  So Beautiful ran a very even race and was never going to do anything after a 28.12 first 400-metre split.  There is a smaller field in this spot, but the pace could easily draw him into the race much more so than his first two starts.  In our mind, it’s a toss-up between So Beautiful and Await The Dawn.

1st – #1 AWAIT THE DAWN, 2nd – #5 SO BEAUTIFUL, 3rd – #2 MIKHAIL GLINKA

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Race 3 – $110,000 Al Naboodah Travel & Tourism Agencies Trophy Handicap (Rated 95-105), 1,900 metres – All-weather

While this race has a short field, the pace seems legitimate in here, with #2 TREBLE JIG knowing relatively no other way, and several others including #1 CON ARTIST, #5 YAA WAYL, and #6 NOT A GIVEN all liking to remain in close attendance.  #7 SPECIFIC GRAVITY has run two solid races on grass and from high draws, albeit in company rated lower than this event.  He has never gone on the all-weather, so it is a question mark, but this son of Dansili surely trains over it.  Last week, according to the Trakus data, he covered seven metres more than winner Jawhar when beaten less than a length.  Two weeks earlier, he went 10 metres more than winner Nawwaar.  Drawn in four, and with speed to his inside, he is very likely to catch a ground-saving trip and kick on from there.

Con Artist has found significant form-franking from Kassiano, who came back for another win, and Banna Boirche, twice placed on grass and behind Con Artist last time.  He’s definitely the main threat to the top pick.

1st – #7 SPECIFIC GRAVITY, 2nd – #1 CON ARTIST, 3rd – #5 YAA WAYL

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Race 4 – $200,000 Balanchine (G2), 1,800 metres – Turf

Well, there is no doubting the star here is #6 IGUGU.  There is plenty of backstory concerning this champion mare, which you can read from the preseason Dubai Racing Comprehensive.  A winner of South Africa’s biggest races, the Vodacom Durban July and the J&B Met, she is the most exciting prospect at the Carnival in some time.  The question is: how will she do in this spot when other goals down the line are more to her aim?  This mare could even take a spot in the Dubai World Cup if the interest is there from the owners.

The runners that came to the UAE from South Africa endured a long, arduous quarantine.  Of the 19 horses making a first up run at this Carnival for trainer Mike de Kock, the two who turned the trick were UAE 2,000 Guineas winner Soft Falling Rain and Al Rashidiya winner The Apache.  Igugu has done it off the shelf before, and when not everything was going her way.  In a level-weight setting, she has to be the pick regardless of the layoff.

Amazingly, #4 SAJJHAA actually gets a weight penalty here and carries slightly more weight than Igugu.  Either way, she was impressive in that first-up run and now gets over a longer trip which is sure to be to her liking.  She traveled wide in the Cape Verdi (G2), had her moved times right to keep Amanee boxed in a tight spot, then got a bit distracted when First City ran to her and briefly passed her before she regained her stride and lengthened away.  A whole lot happened in that race for Sajjhaa, but it was good work.

#1 LILY’S ANGEL, the first thoroughbred winner of this year’s Carnival, has the look of a horse whose connections would love a Group 2 stakes placing behind Igugu for her broodmare career.  They might be running for third in here.

1st – #6 IGUGU, 2nd – #4 SAJJHAA, 3rd – #1 LILY’S ANGEL

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Race 5 – $110,000 SMKA Trophy Handicap (Rated 95-105), 1,600 metres – All-weather

#10 FAMOUS WARRIOR and #13 MYSTICISM both have to run forward. If one of them doesn’t break well, and we’d suggest that Mysticism is much more likely to have that problem, then it could leave the pace rather lonely to Famous Warrior.  So much will have to go right, however, for that to happen, but Famous Warrior has a Carnival win in just that scenario from a few years ago.

Is #9 SANDAGIYR a sucker-bet in here?  He’s done his best running when first up, upsetting eventual Godolphin Mile winner African Story here last year.  This season, he flew home from off the pace in his first-up run and backed-it with a lacklustre run over a longer trip last time.  Back to a mile, and drawn inside, he’ll save ground and get plenty of attention, but is he just a first-up wonder?  If he isn’t, he’s a massive win contender, especially if Mysticism challenges Famous Warrior to run quick up front.

It’s a bit confusing to figure out why #11 MY FREEDOM has only been on all-weather once.  That race, in April at Lingfield against an arguably suspect bunch, was explosive.  He covered plenty of extra ground under Frankie Dettori, was drawn wide, and just moved away with push button acceleration.  He had a leg-stretcher on grass here a few weeks back when Nawwaar walked the dog on the lead.  That is unlikely to happen in this spot.  If My Freedom shows an inkling of the penchant he had for the all-weather at Lingfield, he could turn some heads.

1st – #11 MY FREEDOM, 2nd – #9 SANDAGIYR, 3rd – #10 FAMOUS WARRIOR

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Race 6 – $250,000 Al Fahidi Fort (G2), 1,600 metres – Turf

Honestly, we thought #10 MUSIR was retired.  But he isn’t, and a report from late 2012 declared his low fertility when standing at Coolmore Australia, so he’s back with Mike de Kock.  He won first up last year, and has been freshened since a credible seventh in the BMW Champions Mile (G1) in Hong Kong last May.  On par, he seems like he’ll get a good stalking trip in this spot, but you have to question his mindset after failing at stallion duty. Still, horses with a history of running well fresh in Dubai have repeated that form year after year.  Musir was a first-up winner here in 2010, second behind an eventual Godolphin Mile winner in 2011, and another first-up winner in 2012.  This field leaves something to be desired – if Musir comes back running, he might just do it, but our confidence is limited.

Just take a look at the form of #3 DO IT ALL and remind yourself that this guy is a potential winner should he find his form from the Zabeel Mile (G2) win of last year.  Otherwise, he’s much more a famine case than a feast.  This guy has speed, and will get going up front along with potential speed presence #4 MASTER OF HOUNDS, and also the returning #7 ACROSS THE RHINE, whose past form indicates he needs to go forward.

#6 MANDAEAN surprised slightly winning over the mile last time and did it well, but seems tough to back yet again.  The third place finisher last time came back to win in a local event at Meydan on Tapeta and Trade Storm, eleventh behind Mandaean last time, was super impressive last week.  This isn’t a killer field, but it is a definite class upgrade.

#2 MUSHREQ gets a class test after confirming the all-weather probably isn’t his favourite surface.  He did run so well on January 31 over a longer trip and now cuts back.  He moved forward enough on the grass when given a clear run but the only question might be whether or not this trip is too sharp. Mike de Kock trainees could very easily fill the first three positions in this race, and that’s how we call it.

We find it very difficult to put Mushreq or Master of Hounds on top, Mandaean beat a suspect field, #1 DON’T CALL ME is far from reliable, and Do It All also. There are many questions about Musir, but maybe he just wants to go racing.

1st – #10 MUSIR, 2nd – #6 MANDAEAN, 3rd – #2 MUSHREQ

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Race 7 – $175,000 Al Naboodah Construction Group Trophy Handicap (Rated 100+), 1,000 metres – Turf

Another grass sprint.  For those who regularly follow our analysis, you know our thoughts on these races.

Trainer Mick Halford has two horses in here, #5 RUSSIAN SOUL, who will likely be among the favourites, and #3 INVINCIBLE ASH, a winner here on Super Saturday last year and one likely to be a much higher price than Russian Soul.  Weird things happen sometimes, so don’t count out the higher price.  Russian Soul, however, has the all-so unusual label of consistent grass sprinter.  He’s been in the top three on nine of eleven occasions.  Invincible Ash, however, has done her best running when given a few starts to come into it.  She was second over 1,200 last year in her third start of the campaign before winning fourth-up at today’s distance.  You could logically make a case for almost every runner here, and we wouldn’t talk you off of it.

1st – #3 INVINCIBLE ASH, 2nd – #6 TEMPLE MEADS, 3rd – #5 RUSSIAN SOUL

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’12-’13 UAE season-to-date: 228 selections – 58 first, 33 second, 32 third
25% winners,  54% top picks in top three

6 comments

  1. I have a hunch Igugu is gonna rack up some serious $$$ while she’s in Dubai, starting with the G2 Balanchine. This mare is a monster and has no problem whatsoever running with the very best of the best, male or female. With Frankel now retired and gone to stud, I personally think the torch has been passed to Igugu as being the most talented son or daughter sired by Galileo still actively racing. I also think this weeks races affords Await The Dawn an excellent chance to get back into the winners circle again. He’s always looked his best at 10f on turf, and when he’s right there’s no doubting he has real ability. On paper, Musir is easily the class of the G2 Al Fahidi Fort field, but you can’t overlook he’s coming into the race off of a rather lengthy lay-off and may well need this first run. On recent form I think Mandaean and Mushreq could be the party spoilers for Musir, but I give an ever so slight edge to Mandaean because he’s still completely unexposed over this trip and at this level.

  2. IGUGU is all class and it will be interesting to see how she’ll cope over this trip after nearly 400 days of inactivity. Mike de Kock is a master trainer and so one should expect IGUGU to be right there in the thereabouts. Even at 75 percent of her abilities, she’ll make a mockery of this field.
    MUSIR has been my favourite horse during the past 3 seasons. He is pound for pound the best horse in this field (the ratings do confirm it) and there cannot be another horse that takes this mile trip better than him. He runs well fresh. The only question mark is that he was originally sent for stud duties and now he’s come back…how much training has he been missing? I won’t adventure in these waters because Mike de Kock is one of a kind when it comes to get horses back to their very best in a short time frame. Clear indication of his wellness being the pick of Christophe Soumillon, I believe the Al Fahidi Fort is heading to de Kock’s way.
    Overall it will be a very competitive night and a jewel in store!

  3. From Mike de Kock’s website:

    “Mushreq has improved greatly, he’s a serious contender. Musir has returned from a spell at stud, he proved to be infertile. He and Masterofhounds will need their runs.”

  4. R1 #7 Burning Fancy, #5 Kerim, #9 Thakif
    R2 #2 Mikhail Glinka, #5 So Beautiful, #3 Light Heavy
    R3 #5 Yaa Wayl, #7 Specific Bravity, #1 Con Artist
    R4 #4 Sajjhaa, #1 Lily’s Angle, #6 Igugu
    R5 #3 Maritimer,#8 Ariete Arrollador,#6 Field of Dream
    R6 #6 Mandaean, #2 Mushreq, #10 Musir
    R7 #7 Bear Behind, #1 Box Scholar, #5 Russian Soul

  5. R1: #6 Awam
    R2: #2 Mikhail Glinka
    R3: #1 Con Artist
    R4: #6 Igugu
    R5: #9 Sandagiyr
    R6: #10 Musir
    R7 : #5 Russian Soul

  6. R2: So Beautiful, Await the Dawn, Light Heavy
    R3: Plantagenet, Yaa Wayl, Con Artist
    R4: Igugu, Sajjhaa, Dark Orchid
    R5: Smooth Operator, Mysticism, Finjaan
    R6: Master of Hounds, Fiscal, Musir
    R7: Invisible Ash, Rex Imperator, Factory Time

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