Race 6 – $2,000,000 Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), sponsored by Gulf News, 1,200 metres, All-weather
Barring a stumble at the start, there should be no question the Americans will go forward at the start, including #3 TRINNIBERG and #12 PRIVATE ZONE. Private Zone really reminds us of Kinsale King, who won the inaugural running of this race at Meydan in 2010. He hasn’t won since he has been in the United States, but is as game as you can find, and absolutely goes from the front. Tactical speed is the key and again, everyone will be watching Trinniberg and Private Zone do their thing – and guess what, we actually believe that they could get away with slower than expected splits as the rest of the jocks know, positively, they have no chance if they speed up with them. So you just watch as Trinniberg and Private Zone get into a rhythm, perhaps slower than expected, and turn for home with a slightly increasing lead. Who comes to get them?
#10 MENTAL was impressive in the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3), winning over course and distance. His form in Australia is absolutely, positively top notch, but not unexpectedly did he perform well first-up. As we’ve unveiled this Carnival, trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni has been so dramatically better when horses are fresh. In the 2012-2013 UAE season, Al Zarooni has ten wins, with nine of them coming first off the layoff (9-for-41). In subsequent starts, his runners are a combined…
Wait for it…
1-for-29. That one was Anatolian, a turf handicapper who won on the tote as an even money shot. Statistics can lie, but Mental did get a very good trip and progressed well in what was a speedy Al Shindagha. He can win, but we’ll side against, especially at a short price.
#1 FREDERICK ENGELS is the horse to grab a slice at a price. Trainer John Moore indicated that he should be more forwardly placed in this race and will hopefully get a good position to pounce should the leaders tire.
We all have horses that we just dislike and are willing to eat crow should they run better than you thought. For us, it’s #2 GORDON LORD BYRON. Very well fancied in the European markets, we just don’t think he is anywhere the top sprinter on all-weather. If he is in the top three, he shocks us. #13 KRYPTON FACTOR had a solid gate work early in the week but just does not seem the same horse when he won this race a year ago, coming into the 2012 Dubai Golden Shaheen with stellar performances from the Carnival.
For the complete record, we have been very close with the connections of Private Zone, encouraging them to run in this race, and the back-story with the ownership and his dodgy early days campaigning in Panama are just amazing. There should not be a dry eye in the house if they win. But when it comes down to it – we like his readiness more here than Trinniberg. All Private Zone’s speed work was done in the U.S., the same exact preparation Kinsale King had when winning. Sometimes it is as much an accomplishment to get the horse to the race, and that is surely a win no one can take away.
1st – #12 PRIVATE ZONE, 2nd – #3 TRINNIBERG, 3rd – #1 FREDERICK ENGELS