Below is our analysis for the seventh night of the 2010 Dubai International Racing Carnival
Race 1 – $110,000 Meydan Hotel Handicap, 2,200 meters, Tapeta
#13 ANTINORI was a solid third in his local debut for Godolphin when beaten almost two lengths by King of Rome on February 4. He is just 1 of 10 lifetime but showed an ability to get over the surface. The added 200 meters should be to his liking today, making him the top pick in a lackluster opener. #11 WONDER LAWN was strung wide last week but was closer at the finish than his leg-stretcher a week earlier. His improving performances are positive signs as he goes third off the layoff. #12 HOPES AND FEARS makes his first start in almost 18 months but is a perfect 2-for-2 in all-weather races in France. Some of his turf company isn’t bad either. He is likely to need this run but could grab a minor placing.
1st – #13 ANTINORI, 2nd – #11 WONDER LAWN, 3rd – #12 HOPES AND FEARS
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Race 2 – $120,000 Meydan Museum Handicap, 1,200 meters, Tapeta
#11 ALO PURA was our top pick last start and settled last in a field that went the second-slowest 1,200 meters of the Carnival, and that was with a decent pace-setter. He closed from a long looking last in that race but normally runs closer. Being reunited with William Buick is encouraging, even though that last rider was Frankie Dettori. I question whether both #7 SO SHINY and #8 ESCAPE ROUTE can re-up their form with another win, and given that doubt, think Alo Pura likely to take advantage of the course playing faster. #5 STAR CROWNED gets the most managable field and set-up of the Carnival, and it could mean some greater success on his fifth try. So Shiny is likely to go forward early and I think she could still have a say in the minor placings.
1st – #11 ALO PURA, 2nd – #5 STAR CROWNED, 3rd – #7 SO SHINY
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Race 3 – $175,000 Meydan Horizons Handicap, 2,000 meters, Tapeta
We’ve touted #9 EMERALD WILDERNESS on both occasions at Meydan and managed only a sixth and fifth to show for it. His last rider, Jamie Spencer, is regularly outmaneuvered on the all-weather surfaces, and the switch to Royston Ffrench is encouraging here. With a drop of a significant five kilograms, a rail run, and a trip of 2,000 meters that, while under his probable best distance, is still enough, this guy has suckered us in again. The lack of overwhelming quality amongst the rest of the field gives us hope that he could pop at a price.
#3 MR. BROCK is a consistent sort and his fourth behind Allybar last week was quite respectable. My fear is that the last race may have taken something out of him and the quick swing back, instead of another stakes race placement, is a sign that he might have run his best race when winning on the second night of the Carnival.
#7 RE BAROLO is a wily veteran with a who stands to improve off his Meydan debut two weeks ago. He made up quite a bit of ground and should be tearing home near the finish again.
1st – #9 EMERALD WILDERNESS, 2nd – #7 RE BAROLO, 3rd – #3 MR. BROCK
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Race 4 – $250,000 UAE Oaks (Listed), 1,900 meters, Tapeta
#8 SIYAADAH was such a shocker when she won the UAE 1000 Guineas (Listed), but she passed the entire field, galloped out well past the field, didn’t look tired in the least, and stormed off with the prize. Is there a reason to think she can’t do it again? As much as I thought #3 RAIHANA was a good thing in that race, she was locked on the inner rail when commencing her run and I tend to believe she just didn’t enjoy that. One thing we’ve noticed thus far at Meydan is that winners are more likely to advance outside than from the rail. On the first night of the Carnival, she came wide around the field in a very impressive move. I think that Christophe Soumillon is more likely to take her off the pace and into the clear outside. Raihana’s breeding certainly suggests getting longer trips. I was just so impressed with Siyaadah’s performance, that picking against her is a tough sell.
So – let’s make the sell…it’s all about Siyaadah’s likely low price. Siyaadah is sure to be well-backed after that last run and a decent filly like Raihana could end up a forgotten quantity in some of the punting. Raihana’s opening night performance was good enough to give her a chance with a different setup. I’ll back a form reversal, and at a better price.
# 2 BERG BAHN was game as could be and Ger Lyons has really raved about her since. The stable expects her to be at her best this summer, so giving her a chance is one thing, expecting a win is another. Placings much more likely for this homebred.
1st – #3 RAIHANA, 2nd – #8 SIYAADAH, 3rd – #2 BERG BAHN
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Race 5 – $110,000 Meydan Metropolis Conditions, 1,400 meters, Tapeta
The first thing we note is the return of #6 MIDSHIPMAN, fourth beaten 5.5 to Gloria De Campeao in the first round of the Maktoum Challenge (G3). He was wide most of the way, well off the rail, and faltered in the final 100 meters. Thursday, he will have to get 200 fewer meters on the trip and Dettori sticks on for the ride against softer. A placing is the worst result we’d expect.
#5 LAA RAYB won his only lifetime start, which happened to be his first, on the synthetic at Southwell back in 2007. He hasn’t touched it, in a live race, since. The connections have performed relatively well at the Carnival and he deserves a sniff.
#9 ASSET was a good third in his first all-weather start here on the third night of the DIRC. He stands to come on for that run, one in which he found some significant trouble getting pinned in behind horses while making his run. The beneficiary that night was Force Freeze, as he ended up holding on for the win. There is no doubting that Asset got over the surface and likely appreciates this extra 200 meters. That troubled line gives me the impression that a cleaner trip could seal the deal and get Godolphin in the winners’ enclosure one way or another.
#12 LOVELACE has gradually improved in his three Carnival outings, but to this point, you’d have expected the over the top improvement if he was going to win.
1st – #9 ASSET, 2nd – #6 MIDSHIPMAN, 3rd – #5 LAA RAYB
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Race 6 – $200,000 Balanchine (G3), 1,800 meters, Turf
#6 PURPLE SAGE is a horse that should not be ignored in this spot. She was tardy from the stalls and after settling in the rear, made a monster move at the inside, landing less than two lengths from the winner and galloping out past the top trio after the wire. An extra 200 meters will help her and I suspect she will be relatively ignored in pick contests and international pools. A real chance at the upset.
#5 ZIRCONEUM also endured a troubled trip last time, getting slammed in the stretch when #1 ASPECTOFLOVE was guided outside for more run. While Aspectoflove just missed winning, you have to think that Zirconeum is better for the run and the trip. After the Cape Verde, jockey Kevin Shea said he didn’t overwhelmingly ride Zirconeum having had the rough trip but was still only three lengths behind. Expect improvement.
#4 DEEM is the real wild card here. Her last race was against top Saudi company when Amor De Pobre demolished the field. She ran a great race first up last year here, beating Front House in the Cape Verde, and I think she could bounce right on back when this regally bred daughter of Dalakhani feels the grass under her. I wouldn’t count her out in the least.
I really like too many horses in the race and hate putting one over another, because any of these four mentioned are probable winners in my mind. Improvement from #2 AHLA WASAHL is not out of the realm of expectation either.
Forced to make a selection…
1st – #5 ZIRCONEUM, 2nd – #6 PURPLE SAGE, 3rd – #4 DEEM
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Race 7 – $175,000 DRC Gold Cup, 3,200 meters, Turf
#1 AGE OF REASON was the benefactor of an awesome Frankie Dettori ride in the prep for this event, timing it all so well when winning on DIRC Night 2. The added distance would have helped him that night, as I think it will on Thursday. #8 MOJAVE MOON flashed home as well but was out-waited by Dettori. He has gone over longer and surely can get this trip. No reason to think he can’t again. #6 TITUREL could make it a clean sweep for placed horses who came out of the Gold Cup prep and run in the original.
1st – #1 AGE OF REASON, 2nd – #8 MOJAVE MOON, 3rd – #6 TITUREL
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Race 8 – $120,000 Imax Cup Handicap, 1,600 meters, Tapeta
We felt the dagger when Turkish import Pan River nailed our juicy top pick, #6 LUCKY FIND, at the finish two weeks ago. Back on the Tapeta, I’m uncertain of his chances, despite the fact he runs third off the layoff. Sadly, the turf course at Meydan remains underutilized this season as more time is allowed for its growth. He could move forward or back up. Tough call.
#3 JET EXPRESS should appreciate the 1,600 meters trip as he was tossing it in when eighth in last week’s Maktoum Challenge. I really don’t think he’s gone over the top, but his Jebel Ali specialization might be exposed if he doesn’t run well in this spot. The Dhruba Selvaratnam/William Buick combination could spark again Thursday with #5 EMMROOZ, whose seventh a week ago wasn’t awful, given it his first start since June. He is a lightly raced 5-year-old who could move forward. Prior to that race, five of his six lfimete starts landed in the placings, with the only other outlier a two length defeat when seventh in a Group 2 at Ascot.
We hyped #10 FOURPENNY LANE last week but back off the mare this week. She didn’t bounce back following the rough Cape Verde trip or the return to synthetics as we had hoped. I think she is tough to back Thursday. #12 SOVEREIGN REMEDY was due a start in the last race of Thursdady’s card but ran off after breaking through the stalls. With that workout in him, does he swing back with a decent effort? No reason to think he can’t.
Considering Skysurfers freaked last week, perhaps the effort from #7 STOIC wasn’t that bad after all. He got quite a bump in the ratings off that trip and now makes his third start in the form cycle. I’m giving him another chance in a tough, wide-open affair.
1st – #7 STOIC, 2nd – #5 EMMROOZ, 3rd – #12 SOVEREIGN REMEDY